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What happened, what now?

Marin Dushev of the Bulgarian weekly “Capital” (www.capital.bg) asked some questions, which I’ve tried to answer:

Q:  During my research I’ve been trying to understand what exactly were the disagreements between the Serbian and the Kosovar side which lead to the failure of negotiations. One can find quite a lot of words like “ultimatum” or “blackmail” coming from Serbian officials but nothing more concrete. So what happened there in Brussels? What in the offer was so unacceptable but still worth 8 rounds of negotiating and 12+ hours of discussing last Tuesday?

A:  The discussion in Brussels appears to have reached an ad referendum agreement (that’s an agreement subject to approval by higher authority).  The Serbian delegation said they needed some time back in Belgrade to sell the deal, which I understand included detailed arrangements for implementing the Ahtisaari plan with respect to police and courts (issues of particular importance to Belgrade).    What appears to have happened is that the Serbian delegation, on returning to Belgrade, found that President Nikolic was not on board.

Q:  Why this reaction in Belgrade – rejecting the deal but still willing to continue negotiating? What is their goal? Will they achieve it or will they ultimately agree with the proposals?

A:  President Nikolic has no interest in an agreement that de facto ends Serbian sovereignty over all of Kosovo.  But at the same time, Belgrade is trying hard not to be blamed for failure.  The goal is not to be punished and to keep open the possibility of getting a date to start EU accession negotiations.  Some in Belgrade also hope to reopen the issue of land swaps (partition).

There is still a possibility Belgrade will announce early next week that it has gotten more concessions and therefore will reluctantly sign, but that will only happen if the EU and US remain solidly behind the existing proposal.

Q:  How will the failure in negotiations affect the Serbian government? Many are seeing new parliamentary elections coming there. Which party there is most likely to win from the current developments?

A:  Failure of the negotiations will hurt Dacic, who was in charge of them, and help Vucic and Nikolic.  The Progressives are riding high in the polls and may be tempted for early elections.

Q:  How will the Serbian EU bid be affected?

A:  Failure in the negotiations will cause a significant delay–I would guess at least two years, if not more–in opening negotiations on Serbia’s accession to the EU.  Who knows what winds might prevail two years from now?  A much longer delay is possible.

Q:  How will a possible slowing of the EU integration of Serbia and Kosovo affect the region?

A:  The region would like to see Serbia move ahead, as that will help others who are behind them in the queue and help to fill the hole between Bulgaria and Greece and the rest of the EU.  The US and EU would also like to see Serbia in the accession process.  That said, delay for Serbia gives Kosovo an opportunity to narrow the gap by being assiduous in applying the acquis communitaire.