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It isn’t branding

Milan Misic of Belgrade’s Politika asked a couple of questions.  Here is how I replied, in an interview published today: 

Q:  Do you think that [Serbia’s] image is actually worsening instead of improving? And what…should Serbia start doing to re-brand herself?

A.  I don’t think the problem is branding.

Serbia has benefited in recent years from an America that was willing to let bygones be bygones and a Europe that wanted Serbia in rather than out.  This has meant openness to Nikolic and Dacic, both of whom had enough baggage from the 1990s to merit hesitation.

Rejection of the deal with Pristina will put Serbia in the deep freeze with both Washington and Brussels for some years.  Both will try to continue to make nice (at least to Dacic and maybe even Vucic, who are not seen as the sources of the problem), but without much conviction.  Serbia will find itself turning more and more to Moscow, which doesn’t seem much interested at this point as it has gotten most of what it wanted in the energy sector.  I doubt the Americans and Europeans will begin to block IMF loans, but there will be many here who see that as our last remaining leverage.

Nikolic’s remarks at the UN last week were particularly egregious.  Crimes against Serbs do not justify Serb crimes against others.  Acquittals of others do not require acquittals of Serbs.  His inability to see the Milosevic enterprise for what it was—a criminally violent effort to remove minorities from Serb-controlled territory—is truly odious.  His claim that Serbia has always cooperated fully with the Hague Tribunal is laughable.

The best thing Serbia can do now to fix the problem it has created is to change its mind about the Pristina deal, which has never been published.  They can announce proudly that they have gotten some adjustments (in fact I understand it contains provisions on police and justice that should relieve some anxieties in the north).  There really is still time.  But not much.