Anyone anywhere anytime

Posted in Uncategorized - April 15, 2013 - 30 Comments

There is a tone of desperation creeping into Belgrade’s remarks on the failure of the dialogue with Pristina.  Serbia will meet anyone anywhere anytime under any chairmanship.

The trouble is that the EU isn’t going to want to continue to meet without real results.  Catherine Ashton, who will be traveling in the Balkans this week, has invested a lot in the Pristina/Belgrade dialogue.  She has more important things on her plate, including a difficult nuclear negotiation with Iran.  We are approaching the drop-dead date for her report to the EU on April 22.  Missing that opportunity will result in a delay in giving Serbia a date to start its EU accession talks at least until after the German elections (September 22) and likely much longer.  Belgrade needs to do something to get Ashton to modify her itinerary and stop off in Serbia (and I’d hope Kosovo as well).

For all the dazzling complexity of the issues in northern Kosovo, the vital question for Belgrade should come down to this:  will Serbs be better off accepting reintegration of the north with the rest of Kosovo, or will they not?

My answer to this question is unequivocal:  the Serbs south of the Ibar river are clearly better off having more or less accepted that they live in an independent Kosovo where they can govern themselves at the municipal level while enjoying a good deal of positive discrimination at the national level.  They unquestionably have complaints.  Rada Trajkovic famously complained that she wasn’t allowed to park her car with Serbian license plates in the Kosovo government parking lot.  There are also far more serious complaints of discrimination, intimidation and violence.  But the bottom line is clear:  the Serbs south of the Ibar are staying and participating in Pristina’s institutions even while flying Serbian flags and painting big signs that say “Kosovo is Serbia.”

I believe the Serbs north of the Ibar would also be better off accepting the reality of Kosovo’s independence and exploiting their rights and privileges under the Ahtisaari agreement, which is more than generous in providing for local self-governance while allowing them to maintain their Serbian (as well as Kosovo) citizenship and to receive education and health services provided by Serbia.  But doing that requires that Serbia abandon its efforts to maintain sovereignty over the north, even if it continues to have a lot of sway there.

To put no gloss on it:  the police and courts in the north cannot be Serbia’s police and courts.  They must be Kosovo’s, acceptable to northerners but under Pristina’s authority.  Less than this endangers Kosovo’s claim to sovereignty.

This is what Belgrade is still resisting.  Continuing to do so will make the EU wonder whether it can ever establish a clear border between Serbia and Kosovo.  It will not make northern Kosovo Serbs any better off than they are now.  Tax-free smuggling, their major enterprise, may make a few of them well off, but economic development in the north has basically stood still since 1999.  Nor will continuation of the present situation help the Serbs who live south of the Ibar, where Serb domination of the north has fed growing Albanian nationalism, especially among those who have been prevented from returning to the north for more than a decade.

For both Serbia and Kosovo, solving the problem of the north is vital to getting on with much more important business:  creating jobs, improving economic performance, fighting corruption and organized crime, governing well, preparing for EU accession.  Neither government would be wise to continue the current situation.  Both would be wise to reach an accommodation.  If there is a serious agreement, six months from now no one will remember what the row was about.  If there is none, they’ll be stuck in this rut for years.

 

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30 thoughts on “Anyone anywhere anytime”

  1. The only desperation that we see is by youMR.serwer who wrote six article in a week concerning Serbia and Kosovo on your site.I think a more balanced explanation is the one today on transcoflict:

    http://www.transconflict.com/2013/04/kosovo-what-next-from-pristina-and-friends-154/

    I can understand your desperation and frustration as we see you are not getting your way in Kosovo and once this issue is resolved In a MUTUALY acceptable solution ,
    your pet project of Bosnia will be next to be resolved.

    1. Peter,

      Probably you have wrong perception. People in Kosovo do not care so much whether Serbia accepts the deal with Kosovo or not. The biggest looser for rejection of the deal is Serbia, not Kosovo.

      Serbia is in crisis because economy is going down, foreign debt going up rapidly. Inflation and unemployment going high.

      So if people in Kosovo do not care what Serbia is doing, not to mention “desperation” why then Mr. Serwer should be desperate or frustrated??

      As for Mr. Gallucci’s piece, that is not at all “balanced one” but continuation of his way of thinking to reward Kosovo northern Serbs for something thy do not deserve.

        1. Peter,

          You can’t change the reality. Serbia was in recession last year. Public debt increased rapidly. There was high inflation and higher unemployment rate. Even in your link from wiki you see shrinking of Serbian economy for -1.7% and increasing of public debt. Normally, when a country is in recession, as Serbia is, employment worsens. Everything what I said is true as you may read such things every day in Serbian media.

          Now for UN seat, which by the way is not a matter of Serbia but vetoing of Russian federation. We are not speaking here for the UN but rather EU integration. Neither Serbia nor Russia can block Kosovo being EU member. None of them can block Kosovo being observer state at UN and having possibility to sue Serbia at International Criminal Court for committing genocide i.e for killing of more than 10,000 civilians, raping of several thousands of women, destroying and burning of more than 200,000 houses and expelling forcibly out of Kosovo of more than half of total population.

    2. Peter, we should understand that Daniel Serwer will not go against his own policies. Its obvious that he is lobbying for Kosovo Albanians behalf. Now he is finding excuse to his biased views due to nationalist government in Belgrade, he would do the same if Tadic and DS are still in charge.
      Kosovo Serbs south of Ibar live in enclaves completely isolated. Kosovo’s administration is extremely discriminatory against them as Rada Trajkovic claims. They don’t have choice either to participate in Kosovo’s institutions or to disappear.

      Albanians can not dismantle Serbian institutions in North Kosovo without use of force and help of NATO, there is no any other way.

      Kosovo will not get membership of UN until Serbia agrees to it. Russia and China will veto any attempt for full membership in the UN as it first has to pass through the Security Council before approval in the General Assembly.

      Daniel Serwer and US administration are not interested in peaceful resolution of Kosovo’s conflict which would bring long stability to Balkans. Same as they were not interested during the Bosnian war to stop blood shed. Every time when peace was brokered by international community (Europeans), US administration always found way to persuade Bosnian Muslim side to continue fighting.

      Sad but true.

      1. Micha honestly for all I know mr.serwer may be correct about Kosovo and what will happen but please he should not state that the Serbs are “desperate”in a ridicule way.they are trying to salvage what they can from a situation that is extremely difficult.they are being asked to accept the insurption of 13% of their country for a promise of an eventual EU accession.

        My problem is that the Serbs in my estimation would go long with this for he sake of moving on if they save something ie north Kosovo but I don’t think this will happen and down then road we will have another conflict in the immediate region.

        1. Peter, I knew that long time ago that Serbia will be blackmailed to recognize Kosovo as condition to join EU.

          It is obvious that Germany does not want Serbia in EU (nor Kosovo) and now Germany is trying to find excuse not to start accession talks with Serbia as Galucci wrote. Before that excuse was full cooperation with Hague but they found additional requirement now.

          Germany was never friend of Serbia (I would rather say enemy).

          1. Could I just point out to both of you – it is not Prof Serwer who is being a biased, he is just repeating what Serbia is saying. But since both of you have failed to spot that I am not surprised to read your comments. As for China and Russia, they could not care less what happens in Serbia and Kosovo – remember March 24, 1999. Looking in the distance will always make you trip over what’s in front of you feet.

      2. Micha Amarelo,

        You are wrong in many aspects. Kosovo Serbs, in southern part of river Ibar do not live isolated nor discriminated. Rada did not mention a single evidence to have been discriminated apart of the fact that she couldn’t enter Kosovo Assembly parking area with Belgrade plates in a car. Actually she is discriminated but positively as she is MP with just few votes while her Albanian colleagues are out of Assembly having 20 times more votes.

        The so called institutions in northern Kosovo can be dismantled without use of force, in the same way as those in the south although more time is required and pressure to Serbia is needed so it will stop its illegal presence in Kosovo.

        As for Kosovo at UN, indeed nobody knows what is exact position of Serbia and Serbs in general. What I understand, Serbia would agree once Kosovo leaders accept giving the north. This means, Serbia doesn’t oppose Kosovo statehood but has territorial claims.

        1. Fadil Hoxha, You obviously live in virtual reality. She said that institutions in Kosovo are extremely discriminatory towards Serbs south of Ibar.

          Serbia will never recognize Kosovo as a sovereign state. Neither Russia nor China, which are permanent members of UN Security Council.

          Let me cite Daniel Serwer on Palestine: “UN General Assembly acceptance of Palestine as a non-member state is the maximum the Palestinians can hope for. The United States will veto full membership in the UN, which has to pass through the Security Council before approval in the General Assembly. Palestine will not become independent or more sovereign than it already is no matter what the General Assembly does.”

  3. Whenever there is disagreement within a Serbian government over some important issue, the winning side is the one supported by the Serbian Orthodox Church. In this particular case of northern Kosovo, the Church’s favorite is clearly President Nikolić. Therefore, the offer has been rejected by Belgrade even if Dačić and Vučić likely were on the verge of signing.

  4. Ashton has a definite incentive to wrap this up – the past Slovak PM is being quoted as saying (B92) that the current government, like hers planned to, will recognize Kosovo as soon as there’s an agreement with Serbia. (The Albanian FM recently said that at least two of The Five are planning to do just that.) Solving this little problem should make the EU seem like a more serious international player.

    1. well it looks like a new round of negotiations on Wednesday in Brussels again.I for one know for sure that if there is a MUTUAL accepted agreement between the two sides Greece will recognize kosovo.

  5. With Thaci and Ashton, in Brussels, tomorrow (April 17), says Dacic. The Belgrade politicians are saying bravely that their red lines are well known and that this means Thaci has been pressured into making some acceptable concession. Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister Westerwelle is saying – e.g., in a joint press opportunity with the Kosovar Foreign Minister – that Kosovo will not be punished for Serbia’s unwillingness to make a deal and apparently can expect progress on visa liberalization and the stability agreement. (Hoxhaj must be feeling “cheeky as a butcher’s dog” right about now.) Perhaps needless to say, this is being taken in Serbia as yet one more proof of Germany’s long-standing determination to ruin and humiliate Serbia as its most important potential rival. (To which Mr. Westerwelle would rplay with the German equivalent of “Whatever,” I imagine.)

  6. Micha Amarelo,

    It is not a matter what some in Serbia say i.e. they “will never recognize Kosovo”. Serbia CAN’T enter the EU without recognition of Kosovo. Kosovo, however, may be part of the EU without recognition of Serbia. This is what matters. No other choices my friend. Look what is happening with Serbia. Here is the link: http://www.b92.net/biz/vesti/srbija.php?yyyy=2013&mm=04&dd=17&nav_id=706086

    Serbia is sinking in public debt. Serbia, just now, reached more than 20 billion EUR of public debt (some $26 billion) or more than 65% of its GDP. Serbia, by all macroeconomics parameters, is going to have the fate of Greece or even worse. But Serbia is unfortunate since its “friend” Russia can’t help Serbia as the EU did with Greece. Of course Russia can’t do that as Russian total annual budget is less than half of American budget, just for defense. So how can Russians give money to Serbia while they need to modernize their army with obsolete technology? Russians will not give money to Serbia for sure and Serbia will continue sinking in public debt of some 13 million EUR PER DAY as you may read in the link I provided. All data according to Serbia’s ministry of finance.

    This way Serbia is going to bankruptcy. The process of the EU integration is the only way avoiding bankruptcy. In that way, Serbia must accept the reality of existence of state of Kosovo, for now, and recognize Kosovo formally in latter stages.

    As for UN, again. What matters the most for Kosovo is the EU, not UN. If Russia blocks Kosovo as full UN member (China never mentioned vetoing Kosovo) then observer STATE status for Kosovo will be enough. Probably in the future some other options may be in consideration, excluding Serbia of course.

    Mr. Serwer was right for Palestine as Palestine is not more independent nor sovereign being observer state at UN since Israel’s military is present there and takes actions almost every day. This is not the case with Kosovo nor it will be in future.

    So this is the reality of the world we live. I hope some others will realize that living in virtual reality may harm themselves.

    1. Are you sure that observer status will satisfy EU requirements for UN membership? It seems strange that the EU could be blocked by Russia from determining what countries it can offer membership to, but that seems to be how it stands now. On the other hand, there may be deal at some point that will prevent Serbia from joining until Kosovo can, making Serbia responsible for telling Russia it’s time to stop talking about vetoes.

      Speaking of deals, Express writes that Thaci’s team told Ashton last night that they would return to Brussels once Serbia had agreed to sign, and today they’re back, so despite Belgrade’s saying no decision has been made, it looks like certain frogs are to be swallowed. The champagne will help to wash them down.

      1. Amer,

        I think there ate two blocking situations. Serbia can’t be part of the EU without recognition of Kosovo and Kosovo can’t have full membership at the UN as long as Russia vetoes Kosovo at UN SC. The good thing is that even Serbian extremists and former radicals understand that. They know also that regardless of rhetoric and bluff with Russian factor, they can’t move Serbia from Europe and attach somehow to Russia or China. Both Russia and China are too far from Serbia so Serbia can do business in the in the level it does with the EU.

        Some Serbs say; look we are going to abandon the EU path and do business with BRICS!!!

        But who is going to buy in Brasil or South Africa, for example, meat from Serbia??

        Or yesterdays threat being part of so called “Collective Security Treaty Organization” from Russia. Now Serbia signed observer status but “it might be something else if there is no agreement with Pristina”, some said. In other words again with old game and bluff.

        But OK, just do that and be part of CSTO. So what? Are Serbs so mad that they would b enemies of all surrounding countries?? Hard to believe.

        Of course this is all bluffing thing. Fortunately more and more Serbs realized such bluff and started thinking rationally.

    2. Keep dreaming. Can you just understand that nobody wants Serbia and Kosovo in EU? I don’t blame them, they will get trouble in EU.

      Why Thaci is so desperate to get membership of UN? Why not wait for EU if you said that is enough for Kosovo? Why bother with UN?

  7. G.A. Price, of course that I will remember 24 of March 1999, terrible act of aggression on sovereign state. Aggression which started with a lie(s).

    Russia and China are not the same countries as they were in 1999, they are much stronger economically and military. Russia in 1999 was a joke.

    Professor Daniel Serwer has been Albanian lobbyist for many years now, no wonder that all his articles are biased towards Albanian side.

    I wish that he is supporter of Kurdish and Palestinian state as much as he is supporter of Kosovo Albanian state.

    1. Amer respect your opinion but at the end of the day you have been saying hat Serbia would sign by round7 and were at round9 going on 10 so sit back and stop posting for a while.I think there will be agreement by the weekend
      I don’t think it’s , so one sided at the end you might not like what you see.

      1. Ok,it’s Friday and they’ve initialed some kind of agreement. (Did I make a firm prediction before? Shame on me, then.)

        According to the NYT (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/20/world/europe/serbia-and-kosovo-reach-milestone-deal.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0), Kosovo agrees not send its forces into the North for a certain number of years, and Serbia will not object to Kosovo joining international organizations, with it being unclear at this point whether that includes the UN or not.

        As I see it, Prishtina’s losses are temporary, while Serbia’s are permanent – they can hardly come back and demand that FIFA kick Kosovo out in five years, or that Kosovo be ejected from that Eurosong contest.

        BTW, I listened to the EP session on Kosovo last night (in between updates on the scene in Boston), and many of the speakers, not just Lunacek, called for the Feckless Five to get on board and recognize Kosovo. To be fair, a couple members spoke against Kosovo – a British Independence Party member was quite bitter on the subject, but then, he spoke bitterly about the EU itself.

    2. I do not know what lie(s) you have in mind, but it seems to me that your logic suggests ‘sovereignty’ as a right without responsibilties. If in the contrary you accept that every right has an even bigger responsibility then you would understand that denying a minority their right to education in their own language (or any internationally recognised right for that matter)defies international obligations that are set to protect ones sovereignty.It is up to you which logic you want to follow.

      It is true that Russia and China are very different countries to 1999 which makes them even less likely to risk their progress in an era when they no longer need ‘puppet’ states. They will always bail out when their national interests are no longer at stake (and that is what happened in 1999)

      Supporting a cause (or lobbying)and being biased are two different options in diplomacy and international relations. Again it is up to you which one you choose. But do not forget that we all have an opinion and we should cherish our right to express it. It is the only way to bring people closer (those who understand the dynamics of listeniing and sharing).

      I used to compare conflicts once, until experience gave me the opportunity to understand the danger of such comparison. Each conflict is different, each needs a different approach based on pragmatic circumstances and viable solutions. What prevented me from seeing that was the fact that I was part of a conflict. I only understood how different everything sounds when I learned to block emotions from the argument and hear the other side. Sometimes is very hard but generally it is manageable.

      1. Everybody is entitle to their opinion and that is good, but when different principles have been applied to similar cases it is called hypocrisy.

        Kurds and Palestinians have been far worst treated than Albanians, but they don’t have their own states. But Kosovo is so called “unique case” which is completely false. What does it make so “unique”?

        However, I feel sorry for every victim in any conflict (also those from former Yugoslavia and including Kosovo) and all perpetrators of those crimes should be brought to justice regardless of their ethnicity.

        1. Micha Amarelo,

          The deal between Kosovo and Serbia is signed ad I am happy to hear that.

          Nevertheless let me try to explain why Kosovo is “unique”. Former socialist Yugoslavia was not a unitary state but federation of entities in which some ethnic groups were majority within entity.

          Although Albanians were fourth ethnic group (probably third) in Yugoslavia, being larger than Slovenians, Macedonians and Montenegrins, and very probably more than Bosniaks, Albanians did not have status of “nation” but hybrid name “nationality”. Even mathematically is completely wrong ans nonsense calling a group of more than 2 million people “minority” and the group of half million people like Montenegrins calling “majority”.

          The explanation was very strange – Albanians have one state (Albania) and hence they are “minority”. But are Romanians in Moldova “minority”? Are Greeks and Turks in Cyprus as “minority”? Are Serbs and Croats in Bosnia&Herzegovina as “minority”? Are Chinese in Singapore as “minority”? Not to mention other cases.

          So calling Albanians in former Yugoslavia “minority” was totally nonsense and unjust.

          As we all know, former Yugoslavia collapsed. Some entities declared independence and eventually had been recognized. Serbia changed illegally constitutional position of Kosovo and continued apartheid, violence ending with war. NATO intervened and UN SC adopted resolution 1244, which expelled Serbia military and legally from Kosovo.

          There was no agreement with Serbia for final status and Kosovo had to declare independence as other entities of Yugoslavia did and by now majority of UN members recognize independent and sovereign Kosovo.

          1. In US Racial and ethnic minority populations are defined as:

            Asian American,
            Black or African American,
            Hispanic or Latino,
            Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander,
            American Indian and Alaska Native.

    3. Micha Amarelo,

      What does it mean at all for Serbia if Russia and China are stronger now than on 1999?? Do you believe they are going to fight for you. They don’t have other things than dying for you!!! But look China. Do you see now that stronger China fighting for Taiwan?? And they are going to fight for you!!!

      1. I don’t talk about fighting, you are the one who is always on warpath, look at you post. China and Russia are different countries as they were in 1999.

      2. news coming out of brussels is that a deal has been initialed by serbia and kosovo.seems the serb municipalities in kosovo will have powers inbetween what the serbs in bosnia have(basic state) and what the serb municipalities in croatia(municipal) have.

        1. B92 has a photo (http://www.b92.rs/info/vesti/index.php?yyyy=2013&mm=04&dd=19&nav_category=640&nav_id=706723) of what purports to be the agreement with the initials “?.?.A.” and “I.D.”

          Point 14 differs from what the NYT article reported:

          “14. It is agreed that neither side will block, or encourage others to block, the other side’s progress in their respective EU paths.”

          So, maybe no FIFA??

          But, since UN membership is required for EU membership, does this mean that Serbia has agreed to a UN seat for Kosovo?

          (Back to Boston)

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