Month: April 2013
Boston and Homs
The horror of the Boston marathon bombings is still sinking in, but I imagine that Americans will regard this as an iconic event. Whoever the perpetrators were, they chose a place and event that are hard to forget. “Boston marathon” will join “9/11” and “Oklahoma City” as symbols of violence aimed not only at the individuals killed and wounded but at America as a whole. The evil intent is all too apparent.
Imagine then what Syrians feel as they face 100 or so attacks of this magnitude and greater every day in a country 2.5 times the size of Massachusetts (with a population almost four times as large). Often random but also targeted at hospitals and bakeries, the attacks are intended to frighten the civilian population in rebel areas and get them to refuse to help, or to expel, the armed groups who are challenging the rule of Bashar al Asad.
I spent an hour or so with a commander of one of those armed groups yesterday. His first priority was to bring down Asad. His second was to protect civilians, especially at risk minorities, in his AOR (area of operations), which is near Homs. The fighting there is particularly fierce on the southern edge of the city, along the road that links Damascus with Tartus and Latakia on the western coast. A former Syrian army soldier, the commander and his colleagues were appalled at lack of discipline and warlordism among the rebel forces, who are all too often irregulars in every sense of the word. Freeing kidnap victims, taken for ransom, is becoming one of a rebel commander’s many responsibilities.
It is hard for any of us to imagine the kind of disorder that prevails in Syria. Something like half a million Syrians have fled Homs, even as others from worse-hit communities pour in. Those of us who remember the rioting and burning after the murder of Martin Luther King have some idea of how bad things can get, though that was limited to particular neighborhoods and lasted a week or so, not more than two years. Boston rose quickly to the challenge of many dozens of people injured. Its trauma centers and doctors are trained and equipped for this kind of disaster. Syria’s hospitals were less well-equipped and its doctors less well-trained when the rebellion began. There is little hospital capacity left, though the remaining medical personnel try hard to keep up.
President Obama promised quickly to bring the Boston marathon perpetrators to justice. As there are unexploded bombs, the police and FBI will have something to work with. Surveillance video and other routine electronic surveillance may also help. There is a good chance the perpetrators will be found, though other terrorist bombings teach us that it may be a long while before the full picture is known.
In Syria, the perpetrators are all too well known: the Syrian army is fighting what its leadership regards as terrorists, even as it targets civilian populations. This is a war crime, one for which the highest authority in Syria–Bashar al Asad–is all too clearly responsible, in my way of thinking. Syrians will want to try him, in Syria, if they get the chance. Even those who oppose the death penalty in principle see no alternative in this case. A lot of us felt the same way about Timothy McVeigh.
Boston is not Homs. Homs is not an American responsibility. Syrians will determine how their revolution ends. But they need help. Several years ago on a visit to Vietnam, our driver and guide (both northerners who had been on Ho Chi Minh’s side of the war and suffered American bombing) told us they had given up a day’s pay to contribute to Hurricane Katrina relief. New Orleans wasn’t their responsibility, for sure. Call us bleeding hearts, but the gesture brought tears to our eyes. I’m pleased to learn of the secret American effort to provide humanitarian aid in Syria. But there is more that needs doing. If we are not already doing it in secret, we need to consider the proposition again. Let’s bring tears of gratitude to Syrian eyes.
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Peace Picks: April 15-April 19
Abundant interesting events in a busy week:
1. Tribal Societies & Counterterrorism in Pakistan, Monday April 15/ 11:00am-12:30pm, US Institute of Peace
Venue: Us Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: Ambassador Akbar Ahmed, Peter Bergen, Hamid Khan
In recent months discussions around drone strikes have grown increasingly heated with claims and counter-claims around their legality, morality, and/or effectiveness as a counterterrorism weapon. Amid the heated disputes between diplomats, politicians, lawyers, and civil society activists, the views of those most directly affected by the drone strikes – those living in tribal communities in border regions – have yet to be heard.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.usip.org/events/tribal-societies-counterterrorism-in-pakistan)
2. Takedown: Inside the Hunt for Al Qaeda, Monday April 15/ 1:00-2:30pm, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Philip Mudd, Peter Bergen
On September 11, 2001, as Central Intelligence Agency analyst Philip Mudd rushed out of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next to the White House, he could not anticipate how the terror unleashed that day would change the world of intelligence and his life as a CIA officer. Mudd, now a fellow with the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies Program, would later serve as deputy director of the CIA’s rapidly expanding Counterterrorist Center and then as senior intelligence adviser at the FBI.
Please join the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies for a conversation with Philip Mudd and Peter Bergen about Mudd’s new book, Takedown: Inside the Hunt for Al Qaeda, which provides a first-person account of his role in two organizations that changed dramatically after 9/11. The book also sheds light on the inner workings of the intelligence community during the global counterterror campaign.
Copies of the book will be available for purchase.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/takedown_the_hunt_for_al_qaeda)
3. Afghanistan’s Economic Transition, Monday April 15/ 2:00-3:30pm, US Institute for Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: William Byrd, Borany Pehn, Fatema Sumar, Robert Saum
Afghanistan’s current transition – involving drawdown of international combat troops and hand-over of security responsibilities to Afghan security forces as well as reductions in international aid – is now well into its second year. Along with the security and political dimensions (including the next cycle of presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014 and 2015, respectively), the economic transition is an important factor influencing the success of the overall transition process. The recent publication of the World Bank’s study ‘Transition in Afghanistan: Looking Beyond 2014′ provides an opportunity to review progress, consider key issues, and assess prospects. This event, after a brief presentation and discussants’ comments, is intended to generate an open and frank discussion on economic transition issues and policy options.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.usip.org/events/afghanistans-economic-transition)
4. Author Event: Shadow Lives: The Forgotten Women of the War on Terror, Monday, April 15/ 6:30-8:00pm, Institute for Policy Studies
Venue: Busboys & Poets @ 14th & V, 2021 14th St, NW, Washington, D.C. 20009
Come to a compelling discussion about the unseen side of the ‘9/11 wars,’ as IPS Fellow Phyllis Bennis interviews author Victoria Brittain about her new book, Shadow Lives: The Forgotten Women of the War on Terror. The book reveals the impact the ‘9/11 wars’ has had on the wives and families of men incarcerated in Guantanamo, or in prison or under house arrest in Britain and the US. Brittain shows how these families have been made socially invisible and a convenient scapegoat for the state in order to exercise arbitrary powers under the cover of the ‘War on Terror.’
Her book reveals how a culture of intolerance and cruelty have left individuals at the mercy of the security services’ unverifiable accusations and punitive punishments. Both a ‘j’accuse’ and a testament to the strength and humanity of the families, Shadow Lives shows the methods of incarceration and social control being used by the British state and gives a voice to the families whose lives have been turned upside down. In doing so it raises urgent questions about civil liberties which no one can afford to ignore.
After the discussion there will be the customary book signing by Brittain.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.ips-dc.org/events/author_event_shadow_lives_the_forgotten_women_of_the_war_on_terror)
5. Iran’s Nuclear Program: Assessing the Current State & Debating the Future, Monday April 15 6:30-8:00pm, US-Middle East Youth Network
Venue: Georgetown University, 3700 O St NW, Washington DC, White-Gravenor Hall, Room 208
Speakers: Matthew Kroenig, Colin Kahl, Michael Eisenstadt
As negotiations between Iran and the international community continue, progress towards reaching a resolution regarding Iran’s disputed nuclear program has all but stalled. What are the current prospects for the success of diplomacy? Is a military option viable, sustainable, and/or worse than the alternative, political track? Can the US prevent a preemptive strike by Israel? What ramifications might this have for regional stability and nonproliferation efforts? What might the coming months hold for the conflict surrounding Iran’s nuclear program? Explore these questions and more with Professors Colin Kahl, Matthew Kroenig, and Mr. Michael Eisenstadt from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy this Monday at 6:30pm in WGR208!
For more information see:
(http://usmeyouthnetwork.org/)
6. The Future of Egypt’s Economy, Tuesday April 16 11:30am-1:30pm, Aspen Institute
Venue: Aspen Institute, One Dupont Circle, NW Suite 700
Speakers: Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Hisham Fahmy, Daniel Kurtzer
Surrounded by political uncertainty, the Egyptian economy has experienced a sharp decline over the past two years. While the Egyptian government struggles to maintain macroeconomic stability and international confidence, it faces significant challenges; unemployment continues to increase, and the country’s key sectors have seen a sluggish recovery.
Partners for a New Beginning is organizing a roundtable discussion to address economic challenges as well as opportunities to overcome them. Panelists will address the role of the private sector and international community in driving economic growth in Egypt.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/2013/04/16/future-egypts-economy)
7. Domestic Drivers of Turkey’s Democratic Transformation, Tuesday, April 16 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm, SETA Foundation at Washington DC
Venue: SETA Foundation at Washington, DC, 1025 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: Sener Akturk, Kadir Ustun
Turkey’s democratization process over the past decade has been the subject of much debate. Many studies identify external dynamics such as Turkey’s EU membership negotiations as main drivers of democratic progress. Internal dynamics that made possible various democratic initiatives, such as the reforms allowing for much broader ethnic, linguistic, and religious minority rights, however, remain underappreciated. As the country seeks to consolidate its democracy through a new civilian constitution, lessons from the past decade will be critical to identify contours of democratic change in Turkey.
On April 16, 2013, the Young Scholars on Turkey (YSOT) Program will host a discussion on the domestic drivers of Turkey’s democratic transformation. The panel will feature Sener Akturk, Assistant Professor at Koc University in Istanbul, author of a new book, Regimes of Ethnicity and Nationhood in Germany, Russia, and Turkey, recently published by Cambridge University Press. Kadir Ustun, Research Director at SETA DC, will moderate the discussion.
Register for the event:
http://setadc.org/events/50-upcoming-events/465-domestic-drivers-of-turkeys-democratic-transformation
8. Innovation and Peacebuilding: Breaking Down Silos and Engaging Civil Society, Tuesday, April 16 / 1:00pm – 4:00pm, US Institute of Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: Jan Eliasson, Melanie Greenberg, Jessica Berns, Al Maamoun Baba Lamine Keita, John Agoglia, Paula Gaviria Betancur and more
The U.S. Institute of Peace in partnership with the Alliance for Peacebuilding is pleased to co-sponsor an afternoon of events that will explore innovation in peacebuilding, and provide examples of working across silos to achieve more stable and durable peace.
Jan Eliasson, deputy secretary-general of the United Nations, will open the afternoon with a discussion on the challenges facing the United Nations in Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding. During his career as one of the world’s top diplomats, Ambassador Eliasson also served as the special envoy of the U.N. Secretary-General for Darfur from 2007-2008. Preceding his work in Darfur, he was foreign minister of Sweden, after serving as Sweden’s ambassador to the U.S. from 2000-2005. His work has focused on mediation missions in the Middle East and Europe, as well as on broader topics such as landmines, humanitarian action, and conflict prevention. Ambassador Eliasson was appointed as the first U.N. undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs in 1992. He was also a senior visiting scholar at USIP in 2009.
Following the conversation with Ambassador Eliasson and to launch the Alliance for Peacebuilding’s new semi-annual, online publication, Building Peace: A Forum for Peace and Security in the 21st Century, a select group of Building Peace authors will frame a discussion on peacebuilding approaches to the complex conflict in Mali. Drawing on the perspectives shared in their Building Peace articles, these authors will lead a discussion about how peacebuilders can work with local citizens and international actors to address root causes of conflict, and bring security to war-torn societies.
To register for the event click here:
(http://www.eventbrite.com/event/6128655975#)
9. Mobilizing the Diaspora: Opportunities for Engagement in N. Africa, Tuesday, April 16 / 2:00pm – 5:00pm, Aspen Institute
Venue: Aspen Institute, One Dupont Circle, NW, Suite 700, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Walter Isaacson
This event will feature two roundtable discussions focused on supporting entrepreneur mentorship and education as well as building out access to finance and investment. There will also be an opportunity for networking to allow for diaspora and other US stakeholders interested in the region to connect.
To register for the event click here:
(http://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/2013/04/16/mobilizing-diaspora-opportunities-engagement-n-africa)
10. The Second Arab Awakening: Revolution, Democracy and the Islamist Challenge from Tunis to Damascus, Wednesday, April 17 / 12:00pm – 1:00pm, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speaker: Adeed Dawisha
When, in early 2011, people poured onto the streets of Arab cities to demand freedom, it was not for the first time. An earlier spate of revolutions swept the Arab world in the 1950s and 1960s. Those revolutions that had promised so much bequeathed the recent crop of Arab despots. Dawisha puts the recent Arab awakening into historical context, then traces the progress and fates so far of revolutions from Tunis to Damascus, examining the overthrow of tyrants in some cases and the more brutal repression in others. Finally, he explores the threats and opportunities facing the victorious revolutionaries, the prospects for democratic transformations, and the meaning and consequences of Islamist victories at the polls.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/rsvp?eid=26660&pid=112)
11. Strategic Options for Iran: Balancing Pressure with Diplomacy, Wednesday, April 17 / 12:15pm – 2:00pm, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: William Luers, Ambassador James Dobbins, Thomas Pickering, James Walsh, Carla Hills
This event is held in collaboration with The Iran Project.
Former senior national security officials, military officers and experts with decades of Middle East experience have joined to present a balanced report on the strategic options for dealing with Iran. Moving the debate past politics and unexamined assumptions they argue that the time has come for Washington to strengthen the diplomatic track in the two track policy of pressure and diplomacy that has characterized current U.S. policy.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/rsvp?eid=26908)
12. Heaven on Earth: A Journey Through Sharia Law, Wednesday, April 17 / 3:00pm – 4:30pm, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052, Lindner Family Commons
Speaker: Sadakat Kadri
Legal historian and human rights attorney Sadakat Kadri argues that many people in the West harbor hazy or wrong ideas about Islamic law. Searching for the facts behind the myths, he traces the turbulent journey of Islam’s foundation and expansion and shows how the Prophet’s teachings evolved gradually into concepts of justice.
Sadakat Kadri is a legal historian and English barrister at the Doughty Street Chambers. In addition to his latest book, he regularly contributes to various publications including The Guardian and the London Review of Books, and is the author of The Trial: A History from Socrates to O.J. Simpson (2005).
A limited number of books will be available for GW students.
The Middle East Policy Forum is presented with the generous support of ExxonMobil.
Register for the event here:
(https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1_PQdoubx4EZmIKR6iED6KwTF-rOLbsJeNGxJwEzqqHM/viewform)
13. Iran: Are We Out of Options?, Wednesday, April 17 / 5:00pm – 7:00pm McCain Institute for International Leadership
Venue: U.S. Navy Memorial Burke Theater, 701 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20004
Speakers: Hon. Robert Wexler, Amb. James Dobbins, Danielle Pletka, Amb. Thomas R. Pickering
With the clock ticking and renewed negotiations underway, there is no better time than the present to stop Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. But if diplomatic attempts fail, what then? Analysts give Iran less than 18 months before its nuclear weapons capacity is assured. Successive U.S. Administrations have insisted that the use of military force to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program remains an option. As the clock winds down, are we out of options? Would military force even succeed in stopping Iran? Or would the consequences of military force be worse than a nuclear capable Iran? Hear leading American experts debate U.S. policy on Iran: Are we out of Options? — the third debate in a series at the McCain Institute.
To register for the event click here:
(http://mccaininstitute.org/events/upcoming/mccain-debate-and-decision-series)
14. Balanced Growth and Financial Stability in Turkey’ Thursday, April 18 / 9:00am – 11:00am, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, Kenney Auditorium
Speakers: John Lipsky, Erdem Basi
John Lipsky, SAIS distinguished visiting scholar of International Economics and former first managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and Erdem Basi, governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, will discuss this topic. Note: Breakfast will be served at 8:30 a.m. SAIS will also host a live webcast available here at the time of the event.
Register for the event here:
(http://lipsky-basci.eventbrite.com/)
15. Drone Warfare in 2030: Examining the Future of Expanding Drone Use, the Precedent that May be Set, and Constitutional Implications Here and Abroad, Thursday, April 18 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm, AU Washington College of Law
Venue: AU Washington College of Law, 4801 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016, Room602
Speakers: Joshua Foust, Nathan Sales, Stephen Vladeck, Benjamin Wittes
The United States’ expanding use of armed drones has sparked numerous discussions on the legality and ethical desirability of their use. Yet the discussions seem to be merely focusing on the nation’s current practice and less on other states that will surely be deploying the warfare technology in the near future. This panel will aim to shift the current debate on the use of drones by the US to the question of how increased use will impact the laws of war and our constitutional ideals. To what extent can the US serve as a positive example for the international community with regard to using drones or has a precedent already been set?
Register for the event here: (https://www.wcl.american.edu/secle/registration.cfm)
16. Towards an Islamic Enlightenment: The Gulen Movement, Thursday, April 18 / 6:30pm – 8:30pm, Rumi Forum
Venue: Rumi Forum, 1150 17th St. N.W., Suite 408, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speaker: M. Hakan Yavuz
M. Hakan Yavuz offers an insightful and wide-ranging study of the Gulen Movement, one of the most imaginative developments in contemporary Islam. Founded in Turkey by the Muslim thinker Fethullah Gulen, the Gulen Movement aims to disseminate a ”moderate” interpretation of Islam through faith-based education. Its activities have fundamentally altered religious and political discourse in Turkey in recent decades, and its schools and other institutions have been established throughout Central Asia and the Balkans, as well as western Europe and North America. Consequently, its goals and modus operandi have come under increasing scrutiny around the world.
Yavuz introduces readers to the movement, its leader, its philosophies, and its practical applications. After recounting Gulen’s personal history, he analyzes Gulen’s theological outlook, the structure of the movement, its educational premise and promise, its financial structure, and its contributions (particularly to debates in the Turkish public sphere), its scientific outlook, and its role in interfaith dialogue. Towards an Islamic Enlightenment shows the many facets of the movement, arguing that it is marked by an identity paradox: despite its tremendous contribution to the introduction of a moderate, peaceful, and modern Islamic outlook-so different from the Iranian or Saudi forms of radical and political Islam-the Gulen Movement is at once liberal and communitarian, provoking both hope and fear in its works and influence.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.rumiforum.org/component/option,com_dtregister/Itemid,135/eventId,144/task,event_register/type,reg_individual/)
17. On the Ashes of Sykes-Picot: Turkish Foreign Policy and the Making of a New Middle East Order, Friday, April 19 / 10:00am – 11:30am, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, Room 417
Speaker: Soli Ozel
Soli Ozel, professor of international relations at Istanbul Kadir Has University and Miller Family Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, and Emirhan Yorulmazlar (moderator), fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute, will discuss this topic.
To RSVP for the event, email: ckunkel@jhu.edu
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Anyone anywhere anytime
There is a tone of desperation creeping into Belgrade’s remarks on the failure of the dialogue with Pristina. Serbia will meet anyone anywhere anytime under any chairmanship.
The trouble is that the EU isn’t going to want to continue to meet without real results. Catherine Ashton, who will be traveling in the Balkans this week, has invested a lot in the Pristina/Belgrade dialogue. She has more important things on her plate, including a difficult nuclear negotiation with Iran. We are approaching the drop-dead date for her report to the EU on April 22. Missing that opportunity will result in a delay in giving Serbia a date to start its EU accession talks at least until after the German elections (September 22) and likely much longer. Belgrade needs to do something to get Ashton to modify her itinerary and stop off in Serbia (and I’d hope Kosovo as well).
For all the dazzling complexity of the issues in northern Kosovo, the vital question for Belgrade should come down to this: will Serbs be better off accepting reintegration of the north with the rest of Kosovo, or will they not?
My answer to this question is unequivocal: the Serbs south of the Ibar river are clearly better off having more or less accepted that they live in an independent Kosovo where they can govern themselves at the municipal level while enjoying a good deal of positive discrimination at the national level. They unquestionably have complaints. Rada Trajkovic famously complained that she wasn’t allowed to park her car with Serbian license plates in the Kosovo government parking lot. There are also far more serious complaints of discrimination, intimidation and violence. But the bottom line is clear: the Serbs south of the Ibar are staying and participating in Pristina’s institutions even while flying Serbian flags and painting big signs that say “Kosovo is Serbia.”
I believe the Serbs north of the Ibar would also be better off accepting the reality of Kosovo’s independence and exploiting their rights and privileges under the Ahtisaari agreement, which is more than generous in providing for local self-governance while allowing them to maintain their Serbian (as well as Kosovo) citizenship and to receive education and health services provided by Serbia. But doing that requires that Serbia abandon its efforts to maintain sovereignty over the north, even if it continues to have a lot of sway there.
To put no gloss on it: the police and courts in the north cannot be Serbia’s police and courts. They must be Kosovo’s, acceptable to northerners but under Pristina’s authority. Less than this endangers Kosovo’s claim to sovereignty.
This is what Belgrade is still resisting. Continuing to do so will make the EU wonder whether it can ever establish a clear border between Serbia and Kosovo. It will not make northern Kosovo Serbs any better off than they are now. Tax-free smuggling, their major enterprise, may make a few of them well off, but economic development in the north has basically stood still since 1999. Nor will continuation of the present situation help the Serbs who live south of the Ibar, where Serb domination of the north has fed growing Albanian nationalism, especially among those who have been prevented from returning to the north for more than a decade.
For both Serbia and Kosovo, solving the problem of the north is vital to getting on with much more important business: creating jobs, improving economic performance, fighting corruption and organized crime, governing well, preparing for EU accession. Neither government would be wise to continue the current situation. Both would be wise to reach an accommodation. If there is a serious agreement, six months from now no one will remember what the row was about. If there is none, they’ll be stuck in this rut for years.
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It isn’t branding
Milan Misic of Belgrade’s Politika asked a couple of questions. Here is how I replied, in an interview published today:
Q: Do you think that [Serbia’s] image is actually worsening instead of improving? And what…should Serbia start doing to re-brand herself?
A. I don’t think the problem is branding.
Serbia has benefited in recent years from an America that was willing to let bygones be bygones and a Europe that wanted Serbia in rather than out. This has meant openness to Nikolic and Dacic, both of whom had enough baggage from the 1990s to merit hesitation.
Rejection of the deal with Pristina will put Serbia in the deep freeze with both Washington and Brussels for some years. Both will try to continue to make nice (at least to Dacic and maybe even Vucic, who are not seen as the sources of the problem), but without much conviction. Serbia will find itself turning more and more to Moscow, which doesn’t seem much interested at this point as it has gotten most of what it wanted in the energy sector. I doubt the Americans and Europeans will begin to block IMF loans, but there will be many here who see that as our last remaining leverage.
Nikolic’s remarks at the UN last week were particularly egregious. Crimes against Serbs do not justify Serb crimes against others. Acquittals of others do not require acquittals of Serbs. His inability to see the Milosevic enterprise for what it was—a criminally violent effort to remove minorities from Serb-controlled territory—is truly odious. His claim that Serbia has always cooperated fully with the Hague Tribunal is laughable.
The best thing Serbia can do now to fix the problem it has created is to change its mind about the Pristina deal, which has never been published. They can announce proudly that they have gotten some adjustments (in fact I understand it contains provisions on police and justice that should relieve some anxieties in the north). There really is still time. But not much.
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Is the Middle East only about oil?
Increasing energy demand in the East, decreasing energy demand in the West, and North America’s shale energy revolution have sparked debates regarding the future of OPEC and US-Arab relations. But focusing on energy risks neglect of non-energy dimensions. This week’s National Council on Arab Relations discussion hosted by the international law firm Wilkie Farr & Gallagher LLP discussed the myths and realities surrounding US-Arab energy relations. Paul Sullivan of NDU, former Shell President John Hofmeister and former Associate Deputy Secretary of Energy Randa Fahmy Hudome pariticipated. The discussion focused on the following questions:
1. Will increasing domestic energy supply cause the the US to disengage from the Middle East, jeopardize US-Arab relations and reduce American influence in the region?
Shale oil and gas have significantly boosted US prospects for attaining energy self-dependence. Projections suggest the US will become a net oil exporter by 2030. Natural gas will replace oil as the country’s main fuel. BP goes so far as to declare the US will become 99% energy self-sufficient by 2030. With this increased supply the US has reduced its oil and gas imports from every Arab country except Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Despite the reduced imports, Middle Eastern stability and protection of the energy resources there remain a US priority. Because the oil market is a global one, the US still has an interest in continuing its role as protector of the choke points, sea-lanes of communication and stability needed to secure world access to Middle Eastern energy resources.
Paul Sullivan emphasized the importance of “virtual energy.” China imports 90% of its oil from the Middle East. A disruption in that flow would affect the price and access to imported Chinese goods. Any US import from China (or India, or Japan, or South Korea, or Europe for that matter) is a “virtual” import from the Middle East. Reduced dependence on Middle East energy imports will not end the strategic importance of the Middle East or strong relations with the Arabs for the US.
2. Is there more to the US-Arab relationship than oil?
The energy dimension represents only one aspect of US-Arab relations. The US and Arab nations cooperate in the defense, military, intelligence sectors, on cyber security and financial markets. If strengthened, these aspects could ensure the survival of strong US-Arab relations despite the decreased relevance of the energy relationship.
Fahmy Hudome noted that OPEC too has begun to invest heavily in renewables. Saudi Arabia plans on generating a third of its electricity from solar energy by 2030, and has formed a joint venture with the US SolarReserve to pursue this goal. The UAE is investing in nuclear energy and signed the 123 Agreement with the US. Fahmy Hudome suggested policymakers view the relationship between the US and the Middle East as cooperative, not adversarial.
3.With the evolution of natural gas as a transport fuel, will OPEC lose its relevance in the energy market?
John Hofmeister was adamant that OPEC’s price-setting days are numbered. He argued that reduced US dependence on oil imports and China’s unilateral approach to energy security through cash-for-oil undermines the cartel. Natural gas will replace oil as a cheaper, more available alternative. Liquid natural gas could increase train and freight mobility in the US and compressed natural gas could fuel the trucking industry. Natural gas can also be converted into methanol, a cheaper, more-efficient alternative to ethanol. With natural gas’s comparative practicality and affordability there is no question the cartel will lose relevance, Hofmeister argued.
Hudome was less convinced. She rejects the idea that the shift in global energy demand and supply represents a zero-sum game between the US and the Middle East. The US and its Arab partners can both gain from the rise of natural gas and renewables. She argued world energy supply and demand projections base themselves on difficult to predict variables: shale oil, the rise of renewable energy, and the future regulatory environment in the US. All these factors will influence OPEC’s future role in the global energy market.
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What happened, what now?
Marin Dushev of the Bulgarian weekly “Capital” (www.capital.bg) asked some questions, which I’ve tried to answer:
Q: During my research I’ve been trying to understand what exactly were the disagreements between the Serbian and the Kosovar side which lead to the failure of negotiations. One can find quite a lot of words like “ultimatum” or “blackmail” coming from Serbian officials but nothing more concrete. So what happened there in Brussels? What in the offer was so unacceptable but still worth 8 rounds of negotiating and 12+ hours of discussing last Tuesday?
A: The discussion in Brussels appears to have reached an ad referendum agreement (that’s an agreement subject to approval by higher authority). The Serbian delegation said they needed some time back in Belgrade to sell the deal, which I understand included detailed arrangements for implementing the Ahtisaari plan with respect to police and courts (issues of particular importance to Belgrade). What appears to have happened is that the Serbian delegation, on returning to Belgrade, found that President Nikolic was not on board.
Q: Why this reaction in Belgrade – rejecting the deal but still willing to continue negotiating? What is their goal? Will they achieve it or will they ultimately agree with the proposals?
A: President Nikolic has no interest in an agreement that de facto ends Serbian sovereignty over all of Kosovo. But at the same time, Belgrade is trying hard not to be blamed for failure. The goal is not to be punished and to keep open the possibility of getting a date to start EU accession negotiations. Some in Belgrade also hope to reopen the issue of land swaps (partition).
There is still a possibility Belgrade will announce early next week that it has gotten more concessions and therefore will reluctantly sign, but that will only happen if the EU and US remain solidly behind the existing proposal.
Q: How will the failure in negotiations affect the Serbian government? Many are seeing new parliamentary elections coming there. Which party there is most likely to win from the current developments?
A: Failure of the negotiations will hurt Dacic, who was in charge of them, and help Vucic and Nikolic. The Progressives are riding high in the polls and may be tempted for early elections.
Q: How will the Serbian EU bid be affected?
A: Failure in the negotiations will cause a significant delay–I would guess at least two years, if not more–in opening negotiations on Serbia’s accession to the EU. Who knows what winds might prevail two years from now? A much longer delay is possible.
Q: How will a possible slowing of the EU integration of Serbia and Kosovo affect the region?
A: The region would like to see Serbia move ahead, as that will help others who are behind them in the queue and help to fill the hole between Bulgaria and Greece and the rest of the EU. The US and EU would also like to see Serbia in the accession process. That said, delay for Serbia gives Kosovo an opportunity to narrow the gap by being assiduous in applying the acquis communitaire.
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