peacefare.net

Still the beginning

A lot of the news today about Syria is not only about Syria.  Keeping your eye on Syria means watching:

1. Russia:  Secretary Kerry will be in Moscow this week trying to close the gap with the Russians, who have not wanted a political solution that begins by requiring Bashar al Asad to step down.  It would be hard to do better for Russia experts than Michelle Kelemen’s piece this morning on NPR, but I confess they did not hit hard on what I think is the best bet for Kerry.  Russia and the United States share an interest in preventing an extremist Sunni takeover of Syria.  The longer the violence persists, the more likely that outcome is.  A concerted, UN Security Council push for a political settlement that moves definitively to a post-Asad regime would not only help the Russians save face but also provide the best chance of blocking extremists.
2. Israel:  The Israelis have conducted more air raids into Syria, ostensibly to stop war materiel from shipment to Hizbollah.  The Syrian government, which in the past has not acknowledged Israeli attacks, denounced them on Sunday, thus providing an opportunity to claim Israel is in cahoots with Syria’s revolutionaries and also raising the odds on retaliation.  It would appear the air strikes did not trigger Syria’s much-vaunted, Russian-supplied air defense system.  Some say that is because the Israelis entered Syria from Lebanon.  Whatever.  It still suggests that Syria’s air defense capabilities are over-rated.  The US should be able to do at least as well as the Israelis.
3. Jordan:   The Syrian border with Jordan is now largely in revolutionary hands and refugees are pouring across into a country that was already under severe internal strain from political protests and economic downturn.  The UN is projecting a million Syrian refugees in Jordan by the end of the year.  Many wonder whether Jordan’s monarchy can meet the challenges.
4. Lebanon:  Israeli entry into Syria from Lebanese airspace gives Beirut something all parties can denounce, but at the same time it illustrates all to starkly the parlous state of Lebanese sovereignty.  Lebanese Hizbollah and Sunni fighters are already killing each other inside Syria.  They also clash occasionally inside Lebanon.  Hizbollah has made it absolutely clear that it regards preservation of the Asad regime as vital to its own existence.
5. Turkey:   There are already something like half a million Syrian refugees inside Turkey, which is now blocking them at the border.  The Turks have wisely reached a ceasefire agreement with their own Kurdish (PKK) rebellion, thus limiting the damage Damascus can do by supporting Kurdish militants.  NATO exercises at Incirlik, close to the Syrian border, were presumably scheduled some time ago, but they occurring now and signal that Turkey has backing in preventing spillover from Syria.  But Turkey still faces dissent from its anti-Asad posture from its own Turkish-speaking Alevi population (second cousins to the Arabic-speaking Alawites of Syria).
6. United Nations:  Carla Del Ponte, a Swiss member of a UN inquiry commission into human rights violations, suggested yesterday that it was the rebels, not the government, that had used sarin gas in Syria.  The former prosecutor of The Hague Tribunal concerned with war crimes in former Yugoslavia, she has a previous record of making controversial statements that are difficult to confirm or deny.  Best to wait for the UN chemical weapons experts to pronounce on the subject.

I’ll be posting later today on how the Syria crisis affects different political forces inside Iraq.  Suffice it to say:  the news is not good there either.

Inside Syria, the regime has been ethnically cleansing western parts of the country, presumably in preparation for making them an Alawite stronghold.

What we are seeing are developments–refugees, military exercises and operations, political maneuvering, ethnic cleansing, chemical weapons allegations–that challenge the state structures in the Levant and put many of them under severe strain.  The strain is likely to get much worse, as there is little evidence of anything that would prevent a further slide.  We are still at the beginning of this tragic story, not near its end.