Syria: is there hope?

Syria’s neighbors are increasingly under strain. Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan are over-burdened with refugees, now more than 1.4 million strong and likely to double within the year. In Iraq, the Syrian fighting is exacerbating sectarian tensions between the government in Baghdad and Sunni protesters. Prime Minister Maliki is worried that a successful revolution in Sunni-majority Syria will export insurgency to his Shia-majority Iraq. At least some of the protesters will not be unhappy if he is correct.

Israel struck by air inside Syria twice last weekend, ostensibly to block missiles from trans-shipment to Lebanon’s Hezbollah from Iran. This has cast doubt on the efficacy of Syria’s air defenses, which has been a consideration inhibiting American military action in support of the opposition. Hezbollah is saying Syria will arm it with “game-changing” weapons. If so, we can expect more Israeli attacks to prevent their transfer. At the same time, Israel is at pains to make it clear it is not intervening in the Syrian civil war. It is also strengthening its border defenses against a buildup of radical opposition Islamists in the Golan Heights.

Syria is also causing serious political tensions elsewhere in the Middle East. Turkey and Qatar are supporting Muslim Brotherhood-affiliates inside Syria. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates dislike the Brotherhood and claim to be supporting secularists, which is what the United States prefers. The Syrian opposition remains fragmented. The Brotherhood-affiliated prime minister has not yet named his government, presumably a vital step before a conference can be held.

None of these developments suggest much hope for a negotiated settlement at an upcoming peace conference. Conferences of this sort went on for years during the Bosnian war, without result until the Americans twisted arms at Dayton. It is not clear whether the Americans and Russians are prepared to twist opposition and regime arms with the vigor required to get a settlement. But Secretary Kerry’s backpedaling from insistence that Bashar al Assad leave office at the start of a transition opens up an area of possible agreement with Moscow that has not been in evidence previously.

It would be foolish, however, to suggest that a negotiated settlement is just around the next corner. We are still at the beginning of Syria’s strife. It would be much safer to assume things will get even worse before they get better. There will be more unexpected jolts and changes in the kaleidoscopic pattern before this is over.