The jig is up, time to waltz

Jerry Gallucci, who is an eloquent spokesman for the views of northern Kosovo Serbs, writes:

No matter what the Kosovo Albanians say to their internationals, the local Serbs do not believe that they will be allowed to remain in possession of the land, water and border with Serbia in the north should they be forced to accept Pristina law and control.

Let’s not dissemble.  No one is intending to leave the local Serbs in control of the land, water and border with Serbia in the north.  Under the agreement Belgrade and Pristina have signed onto, the local Serbs would govern themselves at the municipal level in most respects.  Their property rights would be respected under Kosovo law.  But sovereignty would clearly be exercised by Pristina, not by the locals or by Belgrade.

This means customs duties would be collected at the border.  Pristina will manage the Gazivoda reservoir and other water resources.  I assume this will be true also for the mines of the north.  Whoever told the northerners that they would be allowed to walk off with most of Kosovo’s water supply and a good piece of its (so far as I know worthless) mining assets?

I get, as Jerry puts it, that in the north

the great majority simply refuse to accept rule from Pristina because they see it as eventually being used against them. They don’t trust NATO and the EU to remain and protect them.

They are correct.  NATO will not be in Kosovo five years from now.  The troop contributing countries want out.  The EU likely won’t be there either.  The EU rule of law mission has been extended only through mid-June 2014, but it isn’t very good at protecting anyone anyway.

In five years though, Kosovo can hope to be lining up to get candidate status and a date to start negotiations with the EU.  So I fully expect the northern Serbs to find EU leverage used on their behalf, if need be.

Those whom Jerry describes as frightened and hating need to consider their serious options.  They mock Pristina’s office in the north as “Potemkin,” but it is clearly intended to begin providing services there, and Pristina has made it clear it is prepared to expand economic development efforts in the north.  Those who don’t want that are entitled to stay and vote their consciences, as Serbs south of the Ibar have done in recent years.  Last time I passed through Štrpce/Shtërpcë there was a big sign painted in English on a rock at the entrance to town:  “Kosovo Is Serbia” it read.  Those Serbs who don’t want to stay should be entitled to leave.  Belgrade should be prepared to absorb those who want to live under its rule.

Jerry describes the northern Serb resistance this way:

The northern Serb resistance so far has been almost entirely peaceful. Perhaps KFOR is simply more aware of the tensions in the north as the locals feel that they have been abandoned by their government as the price for EU admission.

KFOR knows better because of experience.  Its soldiers have been injured.  That’s one of the many reasons Chancelor Merkel decided she would not put up with the resistance any longer.  And no one should doubt that northern Kosovo Serbs prevent return of Albanians, and exercise of UN and Pristina authority there, by the threat and use of force.

The truth is Belgrade has abandoned its claim of sovereignty over northern Kosovo as the price for beginning negotiations on EU admission, which won’t actually happen until after 2020.  Making the best of this deal would require that serious people in the Serb communities of northern Kosovo sit down with the Pristina authorities, including Serb officials, and discuss the details, in order to ensure a smooth and peaceful transition.

The jig is up.  Time to waltz.