Month: June 2013
Development boy
We owe this to Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs:
SAISers: can you match that?
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
#epicfail
Whatever happens tomorrow in Egypt, it can’t be good. That anyway is the consensus among journalists and experts for the demonstrations and counter-demonstrations planned to mark President Morsi’s first year in office.
According to Pew, the Muslim Brotherhood and the more conservative Salafists have a marginally favorable view of the country’s direction, of how democracy is working out and of the government’s respect for personal freedoms. By wider margins, they also like the new constitution and think future elections will be fair. Islamists are clearly prepared to defend Morsi from what they regard as an illegitimate rebellion against him.
The gap with non-Islamists in the National Salvation Front (NSF) is dramatic and widening. They don’t like the country’s direction, are dissatisfied with the new constitution, don’t think elections will be fair, don’t like the way democracy is working out or the government’s respect for personal freedoms. A substantial portion of the NSF adherents are now backing Tamarod, the petition-based rebellion calling for Morsi’s ouster, a new constitution and new elections. Read more
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Hezbollah has a Syria problem
Hezbollah has long been esteemed within many circles of the Arab world. The militant group, officially designated as a terrorist organization by the US, comprises one of the best organized and strongest fighting forces in the region. They have grown into a significant political actor within Lebanese politics, and they are one of the main providers of social services for many in the Shi’a community in Southern Lebanon. Add to that their achievements versus Israel – accelerating the withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 and the month-long war stalemate in 2006 – Hezbollah has acquired a mystique that few other non-state actors (or governments, for that matter) can rival.
Yet, Randa Slim, a scholar at the Middle East Institute and a leading expert on Hezbollah, believes all of that has changed due to Hezbollah’s growing and more visible presence in the ongoing conflict in Syria. According to her, Hezbollah’s participation in Syria has evolved over the past two years: initially Hezbollah leaders denied the groups’ existence in Syria, then some began speaking of protecting the Shi’a community, to finally framing the conflict as part of their resistance narrative against takfirs (non-believers), Zionists, and corrupt Arab and Muslim regimes. Read more
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Build, baby, build
In the context of the Arab-Israeli conflict there are few issues that create more controversy than the Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Many have preconceived notions about these settlements, their inhabitants, and their effect on the potential for comprehensive agreement between the Palestinians and the Israelis. The UN condemns them as human rights violations; the US seeks to limit their expansion; and the EU uncharacteristically remains quiet.
Meanwhile, the Yesha Council, an umbrella political organization that is connected to several of Israel’s parliamentary parties continues to succeed in advancing its settlement building agenda. On Tuesday, Dani Dayan, Yesha’s chief foreign envoy spoke in Washington DC as part of a US tour to connect with American academics and government officials.
Framing his conversation in the context of the 20th anniversary of the Oslo Accords, Dayan comes off as part-historian, part-professional lobbyist, and part-PR man. Engaging a group of diverse political orientations, Mr. Dayan, a successful businessman, is an impressive speaker who understands his audiences and crafts his organization’s message effectively. Read more
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Istanbul this week
Little time to write, as I am spending full days with Syrians, but here is my brief photographic essay on Istanbul this week:
However I am not spending my evenings at Taksim. This is Giritli, an expensive and very good restaurant:
A glance at the Galata Tower is free:
Galata Tower, last nightPostscript: Ironically, only the police are enjoying Gezi park these days:
Ordinary Turks bear silent witness in front of the Marmara hotel:
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
The fracturing Levant
As events in Syria continue to unfold, it is essential to understand the nature of the conflict. On Tuesday, Emile Hokayem, a Senior Fellow for Regional Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, delivered a presentation based on his recent book, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant. Based on repeated visits to Syria after the uprising, the book relies on a range of primary sources such as fieldwork and interviews with all sides of the conflict. Steven Simon, the executive director of IISS-US, moderated the event.
Before the uprising, analysts had often exaggerated the power of the Syrian state, Hokayem proclaimed. While the Syrian state was not particularly weak, its resources, industrial base, alliances, and human capital pale in comparison to regional countries that had similar ambitions, namely Iraq and Egypt. However, Hafez al-Assad’s genius lay in his statecraft. While this made Syria a stronger state, the uprising has brought Syria down. It is now a weak state marked by divisions and internal rivalries. Read more
RSS - Posts
