Self-determined

I spent a couple of hours yesterday afternoon with the leading lights of Kosovo’s “Self-Determination” movement, Albin Kurti and Shpend Ahmeti.  They appeared with Albanian flag lapel pins at a SAIS panel moderated by Mike Haltzel, with our colleague Ed Joseph (formerly OSCE deputy in Pristina) and me commenting.  I apologize in advance for an inadequate writeup:  I find it hard to take notes on an event in which I also participate.

I had to admit being out of my intellectual depth, as Albin launched with reference to a decade-old speech of Carl Bildt and an equally obscure reference to Robert Cooper’s (don’t worry if you don’t know who he is) work.  I confess I lack such erudition.  But his point was that these luminaries concern themselves not with building states but improving relations between them.  Albin and Shpend view the international community as too focused on short-term stability.  They would prefer to devote their energies to the economic and social development of Kosovo and its entire population, rather than its relations with Belgrade or its relationship to the Serb-occupied northern bit of the country.   They fear creation of an autonomous Serb “entity” in Kosovo (like Republika Srpska in Bosnia) and want reciprocity with Serbia, not Serbian interference in how Kosovo governs itself.  There is a risk that the agreement will separate rather than integrate.

That would all be dandy, but circumstances have not allowed those who do govern the luxury of ignoring Serbia, which is Kosovo’s biggest neighbor, greatest security threat, largest potential market and occupier of 3.5 of its northern municipalities.  There really is reason to be concerned about stability.  So the Kosovo government negotiated an agreement with Belgrade that Albin and Shpend dislike, claiming it obligates only Pristina, not Belgrade, and fails to get Kosovo either recognition or UN membership.  The EU is not a neutral third party, they claim, because it also plays an executive role in Kosovo through its rule of law mission (EULEX).

Belgrade will be surprised to discover that the EU favors Serbia and that the agreement only obligates Pristina, as Serbia has been required to give up its control of the north in exchange for a still uncertain date to begin negotiations for EU membership.  It is true that the agreement stops short of recognition and gives Pristina nothing on UN membership, but it states clearly that Kosovo and Serbia will apply and enter the EU separately and on their own merits, which only independent and sovereign states can do.  It also says that Kosovo’s constitution and laws will be applied on its whole territory, including the now Serb-controlled north.  You don’t get much closer to sovereignty than that without having it.  When President Nikolic says he is not the president in Pristina, you are almost there, as Mike pointed out.

I am reminded of Zeno’s paradox, which in my undergraduate days was stated this way:  if a couple halves the distance between them every second, they should never meet.  But for all practical purposes, they do.

Albin and Shpend were also concerned about corruption, which Albin insisted is a “system,” not a “culture.”   I agree with this and think it is the proper role of of opposition politicians to criticize and expect independent judicial investigations when there is evidence of wrongdoing.  Kosovo’s reputation is critical to its efforts to get international recognition and to satisfy the aspirations of its people.  But you can’t just gripe–you’ve got to deliver evidence to back up allegations and be prepared to meet your own standards when you come to power.

Ed, Mike and I all challenged our visitors on the subject of their advocacy of union with Albania, which is a proposition ruled out by the Kosovo constitution.  They seemed surprised by our vehemence on this subject, but I don’t regret for a moment telling them (and the others listening) that Kosovo would lose its support in Washington if it headed down this road.  Mike was at pains to point out that Albania would be unlikely to welcome the proposition either, as it would mean losing its membership in NATO as well as its place in the queue for the EU.  Kosovo itself would also lose its EU chances and risk de-stabilizing both Macedonia and Bosnia, with catastrophic risks for the Balkans as a whole.

I had argued with several generations of American ambassadors in favor of a US visa for Albin, whom they have regarded as an inciter of violence.  I was glad to see him in Washington getting challenged with something approaching the intellectual vigor that he himself brings to politics.  It was fun.  But I hope he and Shpend return home with an appreciation for how problematic the idea of greater Albania is and how important it is to make a success of the Belgrade/Pristina agreement.  Elections are next year.  They could find themselves in positions of serious responsibility.