Energy interdependence is increasing

As the political and social dynamics in the Middle East continue to evolve as a result of the Arab Spring, attention has been devoted to China’s growing economic role in the region. China now imports nearly 1.5 million barrels of Iraqi oil each day. On Tuesday, NDN, a DC-based think tank, hosted a discussion with Dr. Gawdat Bahgat and I-wei Jennifer Chang to explore shifting energy realities and how they will affect the political landscape of the Middle East.

Bahgat, a professor at the National Defense University and an expert on Middle East energy policy, set out to debunk several prevalent myths concerning US policy in the Middle East. He rejected the “oil for security” tradeoff between the US and its Middle Eastern allies. As the argument goes, Middle Eastern exporters provide the US with oil at reasonable prices and in return the US provides military assistance and aids in those countries’ stability. Taking a more realist approach, Bahgat instead believes that each actor is simply acting in their own best interest. A decrease of Middle Eastern oil will not cause the US to recede from its other commitments in the region. Instead, the US presence in the Middle East will not significantly change in the foreseeable future.

Chang, an expert on Chinese interests in the Middle East, maintained that oil’s role is over-emphasized in the international media. China’s historically has pro-Arab sentiments and wants to use the Middle Eastern states as a buffer between China and the West.  Oil is not necessarily central in Chinese foreign policy. China has no “direct strategic interests in the region.” It will maintain its preference for bilateral agreements rather than multilateral initiatives and continue pursuing its economic interests while avoiding political and social entanglements.

What resonated most from the discussion was the belief that energy interdependence is growing. China may import over 10.5 million barrels of oil per day by 2030.  The US is set to become an oil exporter as domestic production increases.  Energy markets are increasingly globalized.  While energy independence may be an effective rhetorical tool for some politicians, both Bahgat and Chang believe that energy inter-dependence can serve as a stabilizing factor in global politics. This is particularly the case as both US and Chinese policy makers are unwilling or unable to drastically rethink their Middle East strategies.

Nevertheless, China’s expanding economic presence in the Middle East is likely to continue being a contentious issue. With no end in sight to the conflict in Syria, nuclear proliferation concerns in Iran, and a shifting global energy market, China may be forced to take a more active political and even military role. Such developments could lead the Middle East to once again finding itself at the forefront of a great power struggle. How China and the US view one another — as enemies or as rivals — will ultimately dictate how the future of the Middle East (and its vast energy resources) will evolve.