peacefare.net

Who Rouhani isn’t

While the votes are still being counted, early returns suggest that Hassan Rouhani is running far ahead of the other five candidates  in Iran’s presidential election.  I can’t say I predicted this, but I did tweet several days ago:

#Iran experts: does the 5/1 split give Rowhani a chance to reach the 2nd round?

The latest I’ve seen is that he is polling just over 50%, which would put him within striking distance of winning in the first round.  But rural returns normally come in slower than urban ones.  And the margin over 50% is small enough so that ballot stuffing (or ballot disappearing) could force him into a second round. Read more