The will of the people is clear

As news quickly spread over the weekend that Hassan Rouhani had catapulted to victory in Iran’s presidential elections, regional experts and casual observers were equally puzzled yet cautiously optimistic. Rouhani, a relative moderate by Iranian standards, seized the initiative among a crowded field of candidates, securing important endorsements from former Iranian presidents and building on a successful campaign to win over 50% of the votes in the first round of elections.

Questions now abound. How did Rouhani win? Why did the Supreme Leader let him win? What will this mean for Iran’s relationship with the West, and what is to become of Iran’s nuclear program?

On Monday, a panel of Iran experts gathered at the Stimson Center to discuss their initial thoughts on the surprising outcome of Friday’s elections. Geneive Abdo, a fellow on the Middle East and Southwest Asia, framed the discussion for the other panelists. Rouhani emerged as the candidate of hope, promising a more open press and reconciliation with the West. He is a well-educated and articulate man who is close to the regime yet able to carve out some of his own positions. He is disinclined to use bombastic language and is focused on easing the plight of the average Iranian. So does his election signify a noticeable shift in the regime’s outlook?  Or should we expect business as usual with a more mild-mannered demeanor?

The president in Iran remains weak, particularly in matters of foreign policy. While Rouhani’s election may signal a referendum against the regime’s nuclear program, Cliff Kupchan of the Eurasia Group believes that the nuclear portfolio will remain with the Supreme Leader, whose office is notoriously conservative. Iranian presidents have a short window of opportunity to exercise the mandate they are given by the people. Kupchan expects a more professional and creative nuclear negotiating team, one that conveys more realistic foreign policy positions. Still it is uncertain how much real progress can be made in negotiations with the West.

Hosein Ghazian, an Iranian expert reporting from Amsterdam, echoed this point. Iran’s electoral system was designed to ensure that no outsider could win. By limiting the candidates to an acceptable spectrum, the regime dodged the embarrassment of “another mistake” and avoids the “high-cost” of post election demonstrations such as those in 2009. Rouhani’s victory was largely a result of the fractures within the conservative camp. Multiple entrants with overlapping ideologies crowded the political field, and the Supreme Leader was hesitant to back a single candidate. The regime could not even come to an agreement on whom to “cheat for.”

The public celebrations following the election speak to the optimism of the Iranian public. Reinhard Baumgarten, a German journalist reporting via telephone from Tehran, described the change in mood in recent weeks. While the official turnout of nearly 75% cannot be verified independently, turnout was certainly high and the outcome, if not the exact numbers, reliable. Present at Rouhani’s first press conference as president-elect, Baumgarten was impressed by his desire to engage controversial issues clearly and directly. Rouhani has a good feel for current popular sentiment.  Iranians have put their trust in his more moderate approach.

Fatemah Haghighatjoo, a former member of Iran’s parliament and an expert on internal Iranian politics, is optimistic.  Conservatism has been rejected.  The results are a “win-win for all.” Ayatollah Khamenei has gained legitimacy by not rigging another election, Iranian democracy (even in its stinted version) has endured, and the Iranian people are able to begin a new chapter moving away from Ahmadinejad’s follies. Supporting rapprochement with the West, Haghighatjoo believes that the United States should seize the initiative and begin a series of confidence building measures with the new President.

The Iranian election results are only a few days old.  It remains to be seen how much autonomy Rouhani is able to secure for himself and whether his promises of moderation will be accompanied by like-minded actions and policies. The people’s will is clear.  They want a peaceful resolution of the nuclear issue.  Now we must wait and see what the Supreme Leader decides.