Month: June 2013
Google hangout on Syria
I did a Google hangout on Syria and the region this morning with Jim Miller of IRD. Please have a look:
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The cat is out of the bag
President Obama yesterday announced in Berlin his intention to negotiate with Moscow a reduction of up to one-third in strategic nuclear weapons and an unspecified reduction in tactical nukes deployed in Europe. This ranks as bold, and good. It will certainly be welcomed in Germany and the rest of the European Union, where nuclear weapons have never been popular. The Russians will be reluctant, as they have come to view tactical nuclear weapons as part of their defense against superior Western forces (the opposite was true during the Cold War). As my SAIS colleague Eric Edelman notes, they are also concerned about Chinese, French and British nuclear forces, which could be increased even as Washington and Moscow draw down.
There is also the question of whether we can maintain the credibility of our nuclear deterrent if we draw down to 1000 strategic nukes. My sense is that this is more than adequate for the purpose, but Eric doubts that. He worries about the credibility of our “extended” nuclear umbrella, which covers selected allies. I’d certainly be prepared to hear their complaints, if they have any. My guess is that most of our allies would like to see a further drawdown of nuclear forces.
Former Defense Secretary Bill Perry in a powerful piece about his own personal journey to advocating elimination of nuclear weapons makes a crucial point: Read more
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A Wolf in sheep’s clothing?
As the Arab uprisings continue to unfold, it is unclear how countries in the Middle East will act on issues of plurality and human rights. On Monday, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted a talk on the Future of Religious Minorities in the Middle East. Congressman Frank Wolf, co-chairman of the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, delivered a presentation on religious minorities in the region, based on a series of visits to the Middle East.
Wolf reminded that oppression of religious minorities is not new in the region. The Iranian government repressed its Baha’i minority since 1979, killing hundreds of its leaders and dismissing tens of thousands from jobs. The recent uprisings in the region have exacerbated the situation. The Arab Spring “devolved into Winter for many of the most vulnerable in these societies—foremost among them the ancient Christian communities,” according to the Congressman.
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The will of the people is clear
As news quickly spread over the weekend that Hassan Rouhani had catapulted to victory in Iran’s presidential elections, regional experts and casual observers were equally puzzled yet cautiously optimistic. Rouhani, a relative moderate by Iranian standards, seized the initiative among a crowded field of candidates, securing important endorsements from former Iranian presidents and building on a successful campaign to win over 50% of the votes in the first round of elections.
Questions now abound. How did Rouhani win? Why did the Supreme Leader let him win? What will this mean for Iran’s relationship with the West, and what is to become of Iran’s nuclear program?
On Monday, a panel of Iran experts gathered at the Stimson Center to discuss their initial thoughts on the surprising outcome of Friday’s elections. Geneive Abdo, a fellow on the Middle East and Southwest Asia, framed the discussion for the other panelists. Rouhani emerged as the candidate of hope, promising a more open press and reconciliation with the West. He is a well-educated and articulate man who is close to the regime yet able to carve out some of his own positions. He is disinclined to use bombastic language and is focused on easing the plight of the average Iranian. So does his election signify a noticeable shift in the regime’s outlook? Or should we expect business as usual with a more mild-mannered demeanor? Read more
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You break it, you buy it
I spent a frustrating half hour on Warren Olney’s fine show “To the Point” yesterday. Frustrating largely because my phone connection was bad, which meant I had to switch lines, limiting the time I had to intervene. But the show was a good one, with Danielle Pletka, Steve Simon and Amr al Azam.
The main point I wanted to make is that the Administration’s decision on arming the revolutionaries is part of an effort to gain a political settlement. Obama not only wants Asad out but also Sunni extremists blocked from taking over. The Americans also want to limit their engagement to the minimum necessary. Continuing escalation will not serve the purpose of a political settlement or allow them to get off cheaply. Read more
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Ed replies to Shpend
In a third salvo of an exchange that started last week, Ed Joseph of SAIS responds to Vetvendosje’s Shpend Ahmeti’s response to Ed’s initial memo. It is my hope Shpend will respond once again, but then we’ll declare a truce!
Dear Shpend, thank you for taking the time to respond to my five-point memo. Let me try to refine a few points in the hope of narrowing our differences:
First, the aim of the memo was to explain where I believe there is a disconnect between your party and some (or many) in the US who believe your party’s policies are hurting, not helping, Kosovo’s progress. I speak only for myself, however. If you want the official US perspective, you will have to meet with US officials.
Second, on the rights of the Serb community: Read more
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