Ultimatum

In an extraordinary move, the Egyptian army today gave President Morsi a supposedly final warning:

The Armed Forces put everyone on notice that if the demands of the people are not realized in the given time period [48 hours], it will be obliged by its patriotic and historic responsibilities and by its respect for the demands of the great Egyptian people to announce a road map for the future and the steps for overseeing its implementation, with participation of all patriotic and sincere parties and movements — including the youth, who set off the glorious revolution and continue to do so — without excluding anyone.

Ten ministers and several other officials are said to have offered resignations.

Coups are rarely announced in advance, but that is what this manuever amounts to.  The tone of the army statement is clear:  it is siding with Tamarod, the grass-roots rebellion that has garnered opposition political support.  President Morsi needs to do something dramatic, and soon, if he wants to save himself from a military takeover.

It would take someone with a worse memory than mine to welcome the soldiers back to power.  I thought it a mistake to turn over the revolution to them in February 2011.  They then conducted what can only be described as a shambolic transition, culminating a year ago in Morsi’s inauguration.  If they now retake power, even to shove aside an unpopular and failed but elected president and redraw the “road map,” that won’t be a great testimony to Egypt’s democratic potential.

What can Morsi do?  The army’s ultimatum eliminates two of his options, which I wrote about this morning:  repression and awaiting court decisions are no longer open possibilities.  He needs to move as quickly as he can to reconfigure the government in a way that satisfies at least a portion of the demonstrators.  That won’t be easy.  Who would risk reputation and career to join a government unlikely to last as long as 48 hours?

Another possibility is to give in to the demands of the demonstrators and call new presidential elections.  That would be a kind of auto-coup.  They happen.  The Muslim Brotherhood might even win again, though it would be unlikely to choose Morsi as its candidate.

Tamarod‘s situation is not easy either.  If the military takes power, it will expect the demonstrations to end quickly and the rebellion to subside.  A new presidential election would presumably follow, though perhaps not right away.  The secularist and moderate Islamist opposition to Morsi is still fragmented, though the National Salvation Front (NSF) could conceivably unify behind a single candidate and even win the day.  But that’s only if the military decides not to contest the election with a candidate of their own.  It is important to remember that Ahmed Shafiq, a holdover from the Mubarak regime, came very close to winning last time around.

Anyone who thinks they can predict the outcome of events in Egypt must not have been following them over the past few years.  Unpredictability has become the hallmark of the Egyptian revolution.  Neither the rules of the game nor the outcomes are stable.

PS:  Nancy Youssef points out

Nancy Youssef, نانسى ‏@nancyayoussef 5m

Latest SCAF statement says Egyptian military seeking “quick solution” to political impasse, not a coup: https://www.facebook.com/Egy.Army.Spox/posts/334819606649028 …#Egypt

The statement reads this way in a rough Google translation:

In light of the rumors on the lips of some of the characters on various media, which are trying to characterize the statement of the General Command of the Armed Forces as a “military coup” – emphasizes the military establishment on the following:

– That the doctrine and culture of the Egyptian armed forces do not allow a policy of “military coups” have already revealed the armed forces of the street Egypt in years [1977 – 1986 – 2011] did not capsize, but had always stood with the will of the Egyptian people great and aspirations for change and reform.
– Statement came in the armed forces for the purpose of payment of all political parties in the country to quickly find solutions to the current crisis and to reach a formula of national consensus that meets the requirements of the Egyptian people.
– We also emphasize that the statement of the General Command of the Armed Forces is the interaction with the pulse of the Egyptian street, has stressed that the armed forces would not be a party in politics or government department does not satisfy that out of its Decree her role in the authentic democratic thought emanating from the will of the people.

I hesitate to render the original into better English for fear of distorting it further.  Those whose Arabic is good can read it in the original.  It still smells like an ultimatum and possible coup to me.

PPS:  Michelle Dunne and Hussein Ibish did a good job describing the situation on the PBS Newshour tonight: