Leahy and democracy in Egypt

Senator Leahy said yesterday:

U.S. aid is cut off when a democratically elected government is deposed by military coup or decree.

This explains why even otherwise reasonable people are bending over backwards to claim that what happened in Egypt yesterday is not a coup, despite the obvious.  It also explains President Obama’s deep concern about a coup that removed an unfriendly Muslim Brotherhood and put a friendly army in charge.  It may even explain why the Egyptian army chose to turn over governing authority quickly to the chief justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court, who was sworn in as President today (despite suspension of the constitution).

The actual provision is more equivocal than Leahy:

Except as provided in sections 2753 and 2799aa–1 of this title, the second section 620J [1] of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (as added by Public Law 110–161) [22 U.S.C. 2378d], and any provision of an Act making appropriations for the Department of State, foreign operations, and related programs that restricts assistance to the government of any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup or decree, and except as otherwise provided in this subchapter, amounts authorized to be made available to carry out paragraph (2) for fiscal years 2010 and 2011 are authorized to be made available notwithstanding any other provision of law.

I’m not a lawyer and will not try to parse this except to say that exceptions are possible.  In practice, similar provisions restricting assistance to human rights violators have been largely ineffectual.  The executive branch has ways and means to ensure that national security concerns are met.

The net effect will nevertheless be to make the United States press for quick return to democratically elected government.  There is nothing wrong with that in principle.  In practice, it will be some time before Egypt can revise its constitution, prepare a new electoral law and proceed with presidential and parliamentary elections.  If the constitution is rewritten in the open, participatory way that is today regarded as best practice, it could easily be a year or more under the presidency of Adly Mansour, who swore this morning:

I vow to safeguard the republican system and to respect the law and constitution and to look after the interests of the people and to preserve the independence of the homeland and its safety.

He also pledged to uphold the values of the revolution.

What are those?  My friends at the April 6 movement said this morning:

We hope that all parties recognize the need for cooperation and collaboration for the sake of this nation and that they prevent the near and distant past mistakes of exclusion, decision making dictatorship and the isolation from the people’s voice and demands.  We will not forget, at this moment to emphasize the need for the continuation of peaceful demonstrations of support and opposition, and to be careful to avoid bloodshed or incite it.  As we can only commend the keenness of the military institution on the unity and synergy of the nation and to avoid the division black hole that the nation almost fell into. We also commend the eagerness to keep away from interfering in the political life, and its willingness to protect the democratic experiment in Egypt.

I’d say from this the revolutionary values include nonviolence, inclusion, national unity, and responsiveness to the voice of the people, as expressed by street demonstrations.  Notably missing are rule of law, individual rights and freedom of expression.  These lacunae have consequences:  there is no protest in this statement against the arrest of the Muslim Brotherhood leadership and the closure of its media outlets.

Egypt has a long way to go if what it wants is liberal democracy.  I doubt American influence will have much to do with whether it gets there or not.  A society of nearly 85 million souls has its own internal dynamics. Withholding aid at this point would clearly be counterproductive, as it would alienate what looks to be a substantial majority of Egyptians who are today celebrating the military coup.  We do best to wait and see how this new phase of the Egyptian revolution evolves.  If the army has learned its lessons well, it will allow the civilians to redesign Egypt’s governance and bring the Muslim Brotherhood back into the political arena.  There is time enough to lower the boom if instead Chief of Staff Sissi decides to exercise power directly.