Meanwhile in the Balkans
I did this interview Wednesday for Bedrudin Brljavac of the Turkish Anadolu agency in Sarajevo:
- In the aftermath of the accession of Croatia to the EU, do you think that the EU doors are still open to other Balkan countries as well, or has an idea about enlargement recently lose popularity among Europeans?
The door doesn’t really open until a country is ready to join. I think it will open for other Balkans countries, but only when they are well prepared.
- Today there has appeared an interview with former Higher representative Paddy Ashdown who said that after Croatia joined the EU and Serbia joins in the future, Bosnia will stay isolated. Do you think that Bosnia can indeed stay isolated and out of the EU in the long run? Do you think that the “process of Palestinisation of Bosnia” is real and possible?
It will be up to Bosnians to determine their own fate. If they don’t begin to prepare for the EU, they won’t get in. But if they do, the door will open when they are ready.
- Recently, groups of Bosnians started protests against the country’s politicians. Do you think that these protests can change something and bring about change?
I do think the demonstrations are a positive sign that reflect the willingness of Bosnia’s citizens to demand more than they have been getting. That’s good in my book.
- Do you think that the membershio of regional countries in the EU and NATO can be a solution for the region of Balkan? Can these two organisations really reduce nationalistic tensions in the region, especially in Bosnia and Kosovo?
Yes, I think NATO and eventually EU membership will contribute enormously to increasing security and reducing nationalist tensions throughout the Balkans.
- Also, very often we can hear calls from Bosnian Serb politicians about disintegration of Bosnia. Do you think that Republika Srpska will in the future become independent country as Kosovo has become? Will international community allow such state of affairs?
No. Republika Srpska will not become independent. If it were to declare independence, no one would recognize it.
- Is the political and social situation in the Balkans so problematic as its seems or is it exaggerated a bit?
The problems in Bosnia are not insoluble. But there is little political will to solve them. I might wish for different political leadership, but that is up to Bosnians.
- Why the EU and US simply do not intervene into the Bosnian political crisis and find some reasonable solution? Has the US decreased its role in the Balkans and Bosnia especially as it seems that the EU is in recent years more active and dynamic in this part of the world?
Neither the US nor the EU has enough at stake in Bosnia to intervene. Washington is trying to reduce its responsibilities in the Balkans and wants the EU to play a stronger role.
- Now I will turn to the Arab countries especially to Egypt where we can watch a series of protests these days. Do you think that democracy will flourish in these countries or will they go back to totalitarian and autocratic regimes as in the past?
Hard to tell. I think Tunisia is moving, slowly and with difficulty, in the right direction. I think Libya is as well, despite its problems with militias and extremists. Yemen is engaged in a serious national dialogue. But Egypt is a big question mark.
- The Syrian crisis goes on so do you think that the US is at the end of the day intervene militarily and solve the problem. Or can the war in Syria bring about more serious conflicts between Iran on the one side and US and Israel on the other?
I do not expect direct US military intervention at this point, but Washington is trying to level the playing field by increasing arms supplies to the revolutionaries.
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“Republika Srpska will not become independent. If it were to declare independence, no one would recognize it”.
This is definitely a trickiest issue in the region. Yes, it is true that no one, including (probably) even Serbia, would recognize RS if it were to declare independence (though nothing in politics can be guaranteed in the long term, given the history of international relations). But there is another problem beyond Bosnian Serbs’ desire for secession. An influential faction within Bosniak political and religious elite has been complaining for quite some time that Bosniaks are the only ethnicity – or, more precisely, the only South Slavic people – of former Yugoslavia that does not have its own, exclusive nation-state. The most prominent figure among them is the former head of Bosnia’s Islamic community, Mr. Mustafa Cerić.
While these Bosniak nationalists are technically correct, the question remains how do they intend to transform the multiethnic Bosnia into a conventional nation-state, in which they would constitute the decisive majority of the population. They basically have two options. One is to expel Serbs from RS and then populate its territory with Bosniaks from elsewhere, but that’s virtually unachievable. Another is to accept the secession of RS through a peaceful divorce and thus create the Bosniak nation-state on the territory of the today Federation. But even if the ideologues of Bosniak nationalism are willing to divide Bosnia, they would hardly dare to admit that publicly for fear of a backlash from ordinary Bosniaks and others who oppose any idea of dividing the country, and many of whom were actively defending Bosnia against Serb and Croat armed aggression in the 1990s. A possible calculation of those hoping for the definitive division of Bosnia on an ethnic basis is that people who currently oppose such a solution could change their mind over time due to further aggravation of their living conditions caused by this permanent political and institutional gridlock.
In fact, there is also yet another option for the advocates of the Bosniak nation-state: to patiently wait until Bosniaks “naturally” become the decisive majority, relying on their relatively high fertility rate compared to that of the Serbs. However, I somehow don’t think it is what they have in mind.
this damn 18/19 century idea of nation states is in the contrast with everything to what europe aspires to do. even americans, the prime example, of a citizen state under one crown nation, americans are learning that globalization that they unleashed with their invention in science and the way of life has to change the us as well. what about citizens state? what about passing laws to deal with injustice and not having a model of state where laws passed, are doing contrary to what was their intention since the tablets. to bring justice and equality too all the people laws are passed to make a better life to live. what about heading for europe and asking for equal treatment in it and not providing the same in your own country. europe is heading toward social model of united state if not its cut throat capitalism. then again the us is investigating the way of life of the northern european countries also known as nordic. all those questions are obsolete. they live in a world that is gone where nations states, in a europe that was constantly in a threat of conflict, were nation’s defense against the enemy. today the only enemy that remains is that way of thinking and until the way of thinking is changed there will be no entry to europe since that way of thinking is cancerous to what europe is aspiring to create. a more perfect union. what bosnia ought to do, is reduce its bureaucratic apparatus to one prime minister, functional and fit circle of ministers and a small parlament. people of bosnia and herzegovina lived for many years prior to war, even though in a socialism in something akin to libertarianism. trade, commerce and production. this is fit model for folks of bosnia and herzegovina and their natural frame of mind. abandon entities, abandon cantons, move parlament, prime minister and its ministers to jajce. make regions according to, what is the recognition in modern statehood, regions applied to what that part of land is best for and apply to each region minimal administration functional to particular purpose of the region, may that be agriculture, mining, energy, transport, is what would bih ought to do. many cities were capitals of serbia through out the history and one could argue that at those times people lived better lives.
No real nation state (Westphalia style nation state) ever existed in the Balkans. And, for the record, I don’t believe in “instant” nation state as it was proposed for the region. Real nation state should be created during long time combining with common culture, language, history, etc. What exist now in Bosnia is just a Frankenstein state made after destroying solid state that was existed until 1990′ (I don’t want to minimize the contribution of all people in ex Yugoslavia during horrible war). Other “nation state” that appeared on the area of ex Yugoslavia are not much better then Bosnia.
Actually, the idea of citizen state could work but, unfortunately, still science fiction for the moment. Until that idea start to work, there will be one more bloodshed in the Balkan.
Bosnia was always the most pro Yugoslav state, and the most multiethnic than any other state from former Yugoslavia. Bosnians regardless of their fate were the nicest people from former Yugoslavia.
But likes of Izetbegovic and Karadzic (Milosevic too) managed to destroyed it. Bosanci are not only Muslims but Serbs, Croats and Sefardi jews. The worst thing of all that only Muslims feel like Bosanci but not Serbs and Croats. I hope that will change in future otherwise, otherwise Bosnia as we knew will cease to exist.