Day: July 8, 2013
Polarization
Last night’s massacre in Cairo has disputed origins, but the effect is all too clear: polarization. The Muslim Brotherhood will harden its stance against any “interim” government appointed by former chief justice (now acting president) Adly Mansour. The Salafist Nour party, which had previously indicated it was willing to play in the military’s political game, is now opting out. Commentators will worry about civil war, or Egypt following Syria’s path.
I suspect the real danger is less organized military conflict and more chaotic breakdown. Egypt is on the best of days a difficult country to govern. Now its foreign reserves are dwindling, government revenue is collapsing, and subsidized commodities are growing scarce. Tourism has already evaporated. The mostly poor and at best semi-literate population is not going to be patient with anyone in power. They want bread, if not butter. Read more
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