Washington stretched
It is difficult to see Secretary Kerry’s announcement that Israel and Palestine have agreed tentatively to meet at an unspecified date to talk about talks as worthy of the news coverage it has gotten. The headlines really signify how far the two sides have drifted apart after a three-year negotiating hiatus in their more than six decades of conflict.
Nevertheless, hiding in the New York Times account is a hint of what the deal behind the modest news may be. Kerry it says
…apparently won concessions on the new framework, which American, Israeli and Palestinian officials said would allow Washington to declare the 1967 prewar borders as the basis for the talks — along with the recognition of Israel as a Jewish state — but allow Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Abbas to distance themselves from those terms.
This is clever, if ironic. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu last year excoriated President Obama for talking about the 1967 prewar borders. Now he is agreeing to American allegiance to that idea as the basis for the talks, along with American recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, one of his favorite hobby horses. Not a bad deal from Netanyahu’s perspective.
Not too bad from Palestinian President Abbas’ either. He wants the 1967 prewar borders to be the basis, so as to ensure that any divergence from them gives the Palestinians at least quantitatively equivalent swaps. He also gets release of some Palestinian prisoners, though it is unclear yet how many and who they will be. The hard pill for him to swallow is recognition of Israel as an explicitly Jewish state, but even that has a silver lining: Israel needs to ensure its Jewishness by enabling the creation of a Palestinian state. Otherwise the demographic expansion of Palestinians is a serious long-term threat.
There is of course still a long way to go before an overall settlement is reached: specific land swaps, Jerusalem, security, the right of return for Palestinians. But we’ll get a pretty good idea of whether this initiative is going anywhere if Israel begins to limit Jewish settlement activity. That is difficult for Netanyahu, as he has within his governing coalition people who want to retain the entire West Bank. It is also his “best alternative to a negotiated agreement” (BATNA), as he can pursue it unilaterally (even if ultimately it would create an Israel that is neither Jewish nor democratic).
The Palestinian BATNA was pursuing membership in international organizations as a non-UN member state. Palestine succeeded at the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), where the Americans are refusing to pay dues as a result. This may lead to suspension of US voting rights this fall, something my cultured and well-educated friends think is a really bad idea. However that works out, it appears the Palestinians have already decided to go slow in applying for other memberships, under a lot of pressure from the Americans and presumably the Europeans as well. US suspension from the World Health Organization would have many more practical and detrimental ramifications than suspension from UNESCO, which will also hamper many good programs.
More power to John Kerry if he has managed to put together a negotiation on the basis of 1967 prewar borders and Israel as a Jewish state. But even getting this far seems to have made Washington ignore what is going on in Syria and Egypt, both of which need more American care and attention. Our civilian capacities to conduct foreign policy are seriously stretched.
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