It is difficult to believe that Bashar al Asad’s regime would use chemical weapons in a rural area on the outskirts of Damascus a day or so after the arrival of a UN chemical weapons inspection team. But that is apparently what he has done. Hundreds are reported dead. If this claim proves true, what are the options for the Obama administration?
None of these propositions are very attractive, especially if you regard Iran’s nuclear program and American withdrawal from Afghanistan as far more important. Both require Russian cooperation that may not be available if the Americans decide to act unilaterally on Syria.
Weighing in favor of US action is the humanitarian situation and its impact on Syria’s neighbors. The US will spend upwards of $1 billion this year on humanitarian relief for the millions of Syrian refugees, internally displaced and needy whom Bashar al Asad has created with his effort to reassert governing authority in a country that has rejected his rule. A billion this year and a couple of billion next year. We are talking real money out of your taxpayer pocket.
More important for US strategic interests is the impact on neighboring countries. Iraq is suffering a sharp rise in Sunni terrorist attacks that stem from revival of Al Qaeda in Iraq, which has extended itself also into Syria. Jordan is facing a colossal burden from hundreds of thousands of refugees, as is Lebanon, whose Hizbollah and Sunni militia forces are battling both inside Syria and sometimes at home. The Kurds of Iraq, Syria, Iran and Turkey will be meeting August 24 in Erbil to discuss strategy, which for the moment aims at Kurdish federal units within existing states. But if those states start to collapse, can an effort at Kurdish union be far behind?
The notion that Syria is not a priority can only be sustained if the trouble it causes can be contained. It is looking as if that is no longer going to be possible. It is time for the Obama administration to react to the use of chemical weapons, if confirmed. My own preference is number 5 above.
PS: Please do not look at these pictures that purport to be the results of the chemical attack today if you are at all squeamish about seeing dead people.
PPS: To cheer you up, try this from May, via Mike Doran:
Al Sharaa won't be able to decide, but his decisions will influence the outcome. Let's…
Transparently assembling all the material and technology needed for nuclear weapons might serve Iran well…
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria was swift. Now comes the hard part:…
Good luck and timing are important factors in diplomacy. It's possible Grenell will not fail…
There are big opportunities in Syria to make a better life for Syrians. Not to…
HTS-led forces have done a remarkable job in a short time. The risks of fragmentation…