Hasten the day
The Administration’s approach to Syria has seemed to me to focus too narrowly on military attacks (even if others object to the breadth of the authorization for them) and chemical weapons, to the detriment of broader strategy aiming to achieve long-term US interests in stability and avoiding a terrorist haven in Syria. Thanks to Al Jazeera, we now have the draft Congressional resolution in hand. While it does focus primarily on authorizing a military response to Assad’s use of chemical weapons, it also includes at least some minimal attention to the broader strategic issues, requiring the president to certify that:
the use of military force is consistent with and furthers the goals of the United States strategy toward Syria, including achieving a negotiated political settlement to the conflict.
Then, like a school teacher trying to make an assignment a bit easier, it outlines what should be in the strategy and requires the President to consult with Congress and submit to it:
a comprehensive review of current and planned U.S. diplomatic, political, economic, and military policy towards Syria, including: (1) the provision of all forms of assistance to the Syrian Supreme Military Council and other Syrian entities opposed to the government of Bashar Al-Assad that have been properly and fully vetted and share common values and interests with the United States; (2) the provision of all forms of assistance to the Syrian political opposition, including the Syrian Opposition Coalition; (3) efforts to isolate extremist and terrorist groups in Syria to prevent their influence on the future transitional and permanent Syrian governments; (4) coordination with allies and partners; and (5) efforts to limit support from the Government of Iran and others for the Syrian regime.
This is good, as far as it goes. But it fails to deal directly with the key issue: what kind of military action would further broader US goals?
Here there is a pretty clear answer, at least in the near term. The Syrian opposition has had a hard time governing and providing services in liberated areas. Fractiousness is one reason, though I am told that in the one provincial capital the opposition controls, Al Raqaa, the locals have managed a selection process that has put in place a civilian and civic (i.e. non-clerical) administrative council, even as important parts of the area are controlled by Islamist militias. The trouble is that as soon as one of these administrative local councils gets up and running, the Syrian regime bombards it (using planes, Scuds or artillery), targeting in particular hospitals, schools and other essential services.
Far more civilians have died in these conventional military bombardments than in chemical weapons attacks. And the bombardments have forced a lot of people to move, perhaps 5 million within Syria and 2 million to other countries, burdening the international community with what is becoming the largest humanitarian relief effort ever (the price tag to the US will $1 billion this year, likely $2 billion next). The Syrian Opposition Coalition, which the US and many other countries have recognized as the political representative of the Syrian people, does not meet inside Syria partly because of the conditions created by these bombardments of civilian populations, which are a war crime by any standard.
Targeting only chemical weapons capability will send the message that everything else is okay. But the prohibition of attacks on civilian populations is no less important in international humanitarian law than the prohibition on the use of chemical weapons. It is not okay. The issue Congress should be seized with is how we avoid sending a signal we don’t intend but Bashar al Asad will welcome. He is likely to respond to our failure to target conventional capabilities by using them even more extensively. In fact he has already ratcheted up conventional attacks, while we are distracted by a discussion focused on chemical weapons.
Some will read this with disgust and denounce me as a war monger. To the contrary: I am profoundly skeptical of using military action to solve political problems, but I am also profoundly skeptical of finding political solutions unless the conditions are ripe, which requires at the very least that both the opposition and the regime see no further gains from continuing to fight. Military action can shape an opponent’s perspective and help determine whether he perceives himself as having a good alternative to negotiating a solution, or not. But it can also have unintended consequences, signalling that even if chemical weapons use is out he has other options he can use with impunity.
There really is a slippery slope. I’d rather see us plan with care how to manuever down it than find ourselves slipping and sliding to we know not what. Those who are telling the President he can do what needs to be done in two or three days and then stop are being disingenuous. This horrendous war won’t be over until Bashar al Asad is gone, and it may even continue after that day. Whatever we do should be calculated to hasten the day a stable Syria, able to govern and defend itself, welcomes back all its citizens and rejoins the international community with respect for all the laws of war, not just the prohibition on use of chemical weapons.
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2 thoughts on “Hasten the day”
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any, very careful action, ought to have only one goal: prevent further bloodshed. this statement is as layered as an onion. bloodshed caused by assad. bloodshed caused by reaction, that is inevitable, even if, in some hypothetical case (which is what would russia hope for) assad win this time, he has no chance on this road on a long term. hatred induced by use of chemical weapons and the other atrocities that began when the first street demonstrations started asking for a democracy (which he refused knowing that he would certainly lost elections considering popular vote he choose, instead of losing power to lose everything else – in his defense he could not knew any better considering what he has been taught). after he committed first round of atrocities, essentially killing and torturing those who were for democracy he killed any sensible outcome for him on a long term. then more primitive and barbaric elements took the rebellion into their own hands. to stabilize syria (in a view of destabilization that is to come if nothing is done and fanatics take over all of syria – which is, as mentioned previously, bound to happen on a long term if nothing is done) some action must be done. on two fronts. against assad and against the other elements who, along with assad, took from the hands of the people a road to democracy and a better life and pulled them into abyss of violence and horror. aside security issues and interests now. or not! those go hand in hand for everyone, humanity issue and interests go hand in hand on this matter. if the us (and russia who only seeks stable syria after assad and/or after the war) is to find a stronghold in syria for decisive military action, which would prevent assad doing further atrocities and at the same time prevent fanatics in doing their atrocities that are bound to happen after inevitable assad’s regime fall, the us would have enough sense to gather wider support in the world. as much as it is important to bring a stalemate between sides who would be willing to cooperate in the future, as much is important to prevent atrocities that would prevent such a cooperation in the future. it is one goal. narrow action, and i am sure that nsa can pinpoint warehouses and places from where the worst damage comes to the civilian). and i mean on both sides that are on the other side of democratic syria (assad and fanatics) to prevent atrocities and civilian casualties. in the next step broader action (civilian backed by military) to setup a road for democratic solution prior to which a peace accord should be signed. the true enemy of syria are asad and fanatics (imported). all of the civilian casualties and atrocities were caused by them. if actions is to pave the road to peace all the enemies of peace (which is enemies of humanity) and security (which is enemies of the interest of all involved: syria, russia, iran, lebanon, usa) i see no reason why it should not gather wide international support. even that of the un security council, who if not for human reasons (sic) could act in support of regional security. for this to be contained and peace accord to be signed, like in some other cases, those who surround them must find their interest in a future political field of syria democracy.
Putin seems to be softening his stance on the potential U.S. military intervention somewhat. Of course, I do not think he is going to give outright support to the campaign even if he is presented with undeniable evidence of chemical weapons use by the Assad regime; rather, the Russian president is looking to make more room for diplomacy with Washington in a way that does not undermine his domestic reputation. In any case, I’d rate it as a positive sign.