Anything but Syria

Danya Greenfield, moderator of Thursday’s Atlantic Council event on Yemen, joked that it is nice to discuss something other than Syria.  Panelists at the Rafik Hariri Center and Project on Middle East Democracy event included:

1. Peter Salisbury from the Chatham House Yemen Forum,
2. Christopher Jennings from USAID, and
3. Fatima al Asrar, an independent policy analyst.

The discussion focused on the political and economic changes in Yemen since the mass protests of 2011 and the removal of Ali Abdullah Saleh from power in 2012 as well as the international community’s assistance role.

The ousted president, Salisbury said, used patronage to keep local authorities under his influence, resolve conflicts and maintain unity in a traditionally decentralized country. He allowed only those who pledged their allegiance to him access to businesses. Even after liberalization of the economy in the 1990s, only his allies could have businesses with access to foreign markets.  Abdullah Saleh built a loyal political and economic elite.

This system left no money for infrastructure and development and most of the population in extreme poverty. Inequality became an issue when the opposition fielded an opponent in the 2006 presidential elections. But it was only after the 2011 uprising that the international community, concerned with security issues, got engaged.

Current President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi has removed top military officials and elites, destabilizing the country and putting more power in the hands of tribal militias. The opposition Islah Party and the ruling General People’s Congress have been unable to cooperate.  The transition in Yemen will take years and even decades, with a real possibility of return to the old system of elite rule that existed under Abdullah Saleh.

Jennings discussed what USAID has been doing in Yemen to maintain security in the country. The 2011 protests brought real potential for change and reform. There is a real commitment to have an inclusive and transparent National Dialogue, which has been unique among the Arab transitions, and to democracy.  USAID has attempted to move away from a “check-box” approach. It has focused on expansion of the political process to ensure the inclusion of groups such as women and youth. USAID programs are not just targeting the old elites under Abdullah Saleh but also working with local and district officials and civil society organizations, which however sometimes pursue the objectives of donors rather than their target constituents. Yemen’s stability depends on governance and economic reforms and the eventual writing of a constitution. Radicals hinder that process, but USAID is committed to maintaining the momentum of reform and completing the transition process.

Al Asrar sees a real opportunity for reform in Yemen.  With Abdullah Saleh removed from power, the barriers to foreign aid are gone and the Friends of Yemen have promised $8 billion in aid, in accordance with a “mutual accountability” framework.  Before the protests of 2011, Yemen was facing many economic challenges, which have exacerbated during the transition period.  Al Asrar argues that the Yemeni government needs to take the lead and steer donors to its needs.  Political and economic processes need to merge. The Yemeni government does not see its partnerships with the international community as being reliable because donors pull their aid at any sign of instability, leaving many Yemenis without essential resources. Yemen is a fragile state, but foreign governments need to find ways to give predictable aid.

Greenfield concluded that there is a consensus Yemen needs a long-term approach. There is reason for optimism – Yemen has not fallen to divisions and civil war like Syria. Yet, the transition period has still not met the demands of the youth that protested and demanded participation of all Yemenis in the political process.