Reshaping Afpak aid

In the next 15 months, the US presence in South Asia will be drastically reduced, with profound consequences for regional governments and Washington’s aid programs. The future of brittle economies and political structures could hinge on effective support from the international community, including the US.

Those themes emerged on Thursday afternoon at the Middle East Institute’s panel discussion on how US aid and development programs can contribute to the stability of Afghanistan and Pakistan following the withdrawal of US combat forces from Afghanistan.  The panel included Dr. Vanda Felbab-Brown, senior fellow with the Center for 21^st Century Security at Brookings; Polly Nayak, an independent consultant; Ambassador Robin Raphel, the US coordinator for non-military assistance to Pakistan; and Alex Thier, the assistant to the administrator for policy, planning, and learning at USAID. The Middle East Institute’s Dr. Marvin Weinbaum moderated the panel.

Following the withdrawal of foreign combat forces from Afghanistan, the US government will reprioritize and reallocate aid to the region. While a main objective of US aid programs in the two countries is to win the hearts and minds of the people, Nayak said, the US government should refocus development priorities based on a new set of goals. Corruption has plagued foreign assistance programs in this region, she said, and that must be addressed if the Obama Administration expects to win support for its policies.

More than a decade of direct involvement on the ground will inform the policy debate. According to Thier, critical lessons learned include:

• It is possible to deliver meaningful development aid in dangerous, far-flung, and ideologically diverse regions;
• Local ownership is key to sustainability;
• Sustainable results can be attained through partnerships with emerging local institutions;
• Creative financing and partnerships are essential and are attainable even in these difficult environments;
• The positive impact of development aid in these environments is a critical foreign policy objective.

If development efforts in South Asia ultimately fail, Afghanistan could see a resurgence of Al-Qaeda that would thoroughly vitiate billions of dollars spent in the country since 2001.

Building on Thier’s themes, Raphel said that strengthening the fragile Afghan economy should be the top priority. Recently, the US has focused on providing aid in five major sectors—energy, economic growth, stabilization, infrastructure, education, and health. With this refocusing of aid, US officials hope that the economy can maintain a degree of stability after the withdrawal of US combat forces. Much of Afghanistan’s economy, specifically jobs, relies on the foreign presence in the country. The US has been a huge employer in Afghanistan—everything from construction to translation.  The loss of those jobs will leave many young Afghans unemployed and vulnerable to extremism and crime.

Felbab-Brown highlighted three crucial areas on which US assistance programs should focus. US aid must continue to bolster the capabilities of the fledgling Afghan security forces. These forces rely heavily on equipment and training from the United States, and without it the risk of backsliding is great.  Second, she stressed the vulnerability of Afghan youth if economic opportunity dries up in the wake of the drawdown. Finally, aid programs should focus on improving rural governance. Dr. Felbab-Brown said that many Afghans view government as mafia-like.  The US should be tougher in its distribution of aid and refuse to tolerate the Afghan government’s ignorance of established US “red lines.”

According to Raphel, Pakistanis say they want trade, not aid. Economic growth in the region would benefit if US assistance helps Pakistan and Afghanistan open trade relations with their neighbors. Improved trade relations could also bring political stability to Pakistan and Afghanistan, a vital objective for both the people in the region and the foreign actors who exert influence from abroad.  Competition will bring innovation, which is much needed in the region.