Trouble in the heart of Africa

Former student Matthias-Sönke Witt (@msbcw) offers a second post from his perch in Ituri:  

The crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR) has garnered increased media attention recently, following the adoption of a resolution by the UN Security Council and a widely quoted press statement this week by Doctors Without Borders (MSF). While the latter rightly directed attention to the unfolding humanitarian disaster in the country, caused by massive internal displacement, growing food insecurity, and the collapse of the already weak health care system, the former naturally focused on political and security aspects of the crisis. The UN resolution calls for extensive disarmament efforts, the preparation of new elections according to a roadmap decided upon during April peace talks, the promotion and protection of human rights, and security sector reform. Those are some ambitious demands, given the reality on the ground.

The situation is dire: since a coalition of multiple rebel groups threw out President François Bozizé in March 2013, the already weak state authority throughout the country has collapsed entirely. The rebel alliance, called “Seleka” after the Sango word for “union,” was a coalition of necessity, united in their goal of ousting Bozizé and taking over Bangui, the country’s capital.

Their military leader, an old foe of Bozizé’s named Michel Djotodia, was quickly recognized as the transitional head of state at a regional summit in neighboring Chad, but lost control and influence over most Seleka-affiliated groups as soon as he took up his governing duties. He is now the de jure leader of a state whose security apparatus has all but disappeared, resulting in widespread looting, extrajudicial killings, and a rapid rise in violence throughout the country.

Massive displacement, a consequence of escalating violence, has left fields unattended and food supply short. Aid agencies estimate the total number of internally displaced people s at over 300,000 – an overwhelming number, considering the country’s total population of approximately 4.5 million. Hospitals and health centers have been abandoned or destroyed.

An African Union peacekeeping mission, known as MICOPAX, has been expanded to over 1000 troops in recent months. It is difficult to see how this force can bring stability to the country, as it has been present since 2008 and failed to stand in the way of the most recent rebellion. It will most likely take decisive action from international actors in addition to the African Union if the downward spiral towards complete state failure is to be stopped anytime soon.

French President Hollande has been banging the drums for more international support to stabilize the country, warning of potential regional spillover should its plunge into anarchy not be averted any time soon. He has also announced an increase in the number of French troops, who presently have only a small contingent stationed in Bangui, securing the international airport and a few neighborhoods deemed essential to French interests in the country.

Hollande’s concerns are clear to regional observers. The Central African Republic has been linked to regional conflict throughout its troubled post-colonial past.

Former Congolese rebel leader Jean-Pierre Bemba is currently on trial at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for atrocities his troops committed in Centrafrique in 2002, when now-ousted François Bozizé tried to take power through a military coup for the first time. Rebel groups supported by Chad and Sudan have fought proxy wars on CAR territory during the height of the Darfur conflict not too long ago. Joseph Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) has sought refuge in the southern CAR and northern Democratic Republic of the  Congo since being ousted from northern Uganda.  While US-trained Ugandan and Congolese troops are still actively uprooting LRA camps in the area, the current state of chaos and confusion in Centrafrique could help this dwindling rebel movement regain strength and momentum on CAR soil.

In addition, the stretch of Centrafrique bordering South Sudan and the DRC has seen regional tensions between migrating pastoralists and local communities even before the current escalation of violence.  The increased presence of armed groups in the region could serve to further escalate an existing problem.

What Hollande is probably most afraid of, however, is the possibility of an anarchic safe-haven for terrorist rebel groups from West Africa and the Sahel region, a concern echoed by researchers from the International Crisis Group, who fear that Centrafrique might become a training ground for Nigerian Boko Haram.

While regional spillovers have not yet materialized, Hollande’s warning reflects France’s growing uneasiness over developments in central Africa as a whole. Whether his request for international support will be honored remains to be seen, but it is in nobody’s interest to see the CAR spiral further out of control than it already has. Neighboring countries as well as the African Union lack the necessary resources and political will, respectively.  Long-term international commitment from beyond Africa to security sector reform and disarmament is needed sooner rather than later if total state failure is to be avoided.