peacefare.net

The Balkans in the EU

I can’t claim to have read all the progress reports the European Commission has published on its Balkans aspirants for membership, but I’ve had a look and can’t help but express admiration and pleasure with the level of candor and detail Brussels has reached.

The overall picture is not a surprise.  At least for now,  Kosovo and Serbia are looking good.  The incentives–a Stabilization and Association Agreement for Pristina and opening of membership negotiations for Belgrade–are strong.  The April agreement between them seems to have set up a virtuous spiral.  There is no internal political incentive for them to satisfy each other–in fact the rhetoric on both sides can get pretty harsh–but both are anxious to prove themselves worthy of moving ahead to the next level in progress towards the EU no slower than the adversary.  Competition is a form of flattery neither would admit to, but both indulge in.

Montenegro likewise gets a pretty good grade, even if Brussels views it as sharing with Kosovo and Serbia a lack of capacity to implement all that is required in the acquis communitaire, especially in the rule of law department.  This reflects not only the situation on the ground in the Balkans, but also EU priorities in the aftermath of the admission of Romania and Bulgaria.  Not to mention the general reluctance to open the EU membership door anytime soon, except possibly to Iceland (which however is now hesitating to knock).

The Commission’s unhappy noises concern mainly Bosnia_and_Herzegovina, where only a vicious spiral is evident: Read more