Breaking up is hard to do

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace yesterday afternoon focused on the changing regional and international atmosphere for the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.* Frederic Wehrey, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment and moderator of the event, opened the discussion asking what the current disagreements with the GCC, particularly Saudi Arabia, mean for the future of US-Gulf relationships?

Abdullah al-Shayji, Professor at Kuwait University, sees the widening trust deficit between the US and the GCC as alarming. This is not the first time that the GCC and US have had disagreements, but Shayji sees something amiss in the relationship. The US hesitation about involvement in Syria, and its overture with Iran, make the GCC question whether it can rely on the US.

The GCC also sees Washington as dysfunctional and fatigued based on sequestration and the government shutdown. The relationship is at a tipping point but not at a critical state yet. The GCC sees itself as shut out from US foreign policy regarding the region and wants a more nuanced and holistic approach.  Diverging trust can ultimately be detrimental to the US-GCC relationship. The US should be more receptive and open-minded toward its junior GCC partner.

Professor at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar Mehran Kamrava focused his comments on Qatar and its changing foreign policy. Before 2010, Qatar wanted to come out of the Saudi shadow. This was mainly a policy of survival, but Doha also made attempts to project power and influence in the region. Qatar had four “ingredients” for its pre-2010 foreign policy:

1. A branding campaign to market Qatar as a regional power;
2. Hyperactive diplomacy on the regional stage;
3. Aggressive international investments (buying and selling showcase purchases);
4. Leadership operated like a business.

Since 2010, there have been three factors that have challenged Qatari foreign policy:

1. The Arab Spring. Qatar sees it as an opportunity to deepen its reach in the region. However Qatar has ultimately been sidelined in the Arab Spring countries.
2. Leadership transition. Sheikh Hamad has abdicated to his son Sheikh Tamim. This raises the question of whether the new emir will be able to pursue the same foreign policies as his father.
3. Negotiations with Iran. Qatar is not experiencing the same fears regarding negotiations with Iran as many of the other Gulf states. He describes the GCC fears as similar to Netanyahu’s. Qatar, while hedging mostly towards the US, has maintained some connections with Iran, thus limiting its fears.

Fahad Nazer, Political Analyst at JTG, attributes Saudi Arabia’s influence in the region to Islam and oil. These two factors have made it able to support its interests in the Arab and Muslim world but also able to act as a conflict-mediating leader. There is an expectation that Saudi Arabia has the moral obligation to use oil money in order to resolve conflicts. Thus, during the Arab Spring, Saudi Arabia took in ousted Tunisian President Ben Ali. It was willing to provide aid to President Morsi but was also the first country to congratulate General Sisi on ousting Morsi. Syria has been very important for Saudi Arabia because it presented it with a chance to take a stance on a defining issue for regional politics.

Since 2006, Saudi foreign policy has focused on containing and rolling back Iranian influence in the Arab world, according to Gregory Gause, Professor at the University of Vermont. The Saudis see themselves as the only power in the Middle East potentially able to balance Iran’s influence in the region. However, it has failed to do so, particularly in Iraq and Lebanon.

In Syria, Saudi Arabia sees an opportunity to roll back Iranian influence. The Syrian issue is a higher priority for the Saudis than it is for the Americans, which is at the root of current tensions.  Another worry is structural:  Saudi Arabia fears both entrapment and abandonment by the US.  But divorce is not in the cards.  This is a Catholic marriage.

*That’s Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman.