When will Macedonia enter the EU?

I of course have no idea, but I did this interview for the Macedonian daily Vecer, which published it yesterday.  Maybe it sheds some light on the question, if not the answer:

Q.  After the European Council did not adopt the Commission’s recommendation to begin negotiations with Macedonia last year, you recommended that “the bicycle must move, so as not to fall,” warning that the enlargement process may be terminated if it is slow. Again, Macedonia, for the fifth time had a recommendation for starting accession negotiations with the EU. Do you expect that the Council in December will finally accept it and will grant Macedonia a date?

A.  No, not unless there is a solution of the “name” problem.  Greece seems determined to continue to block a date without that.  But the High Level Accession Dialogue (HLAD) seems to be providing an alternate route that can take Macedonia a long way forward in the process.  That’s a good thing. 

Q.  Your position that Macedonia should begin negotiations under the interim reference from 1995 is well known, a solution that is acceptable for Macedonia, inoffensive for Greece and Bulgaria and supported by the Hague verdict, but Athens does not comply. Is it possible that Athens and Sofia change something in their perceptions before December and accept this solution as a compromise?

A.  I would certainly welcome that, but I doubt it.  Neither seems ready to use the Interim Accord for EU membership or even the start of negotiations.  Greece does not even want to use it for NATO membership.  That is in clear violation of the binding decision of the International Court of Justice. 

Q.  Do you think that there is a real contribution from Washington and Brussels for solving the Macedonian – Greek dispute?

A.  Brussels has contributed the HLAD. It has failed to pressure Athens to give in, but I would regard that as Berlin’s role, not Brussels’.

 Washington has favored NATO membership for Macedonia but hasn’t done what is needed to move Athens to accept the Interim Accord as the basis.  Instead it has bet on the UN-led “name” mediation, which has gone on for two decades without result.  I’d like to see a much stronger position from Washington, but it is hard to convince an Administration with as many high priority problems as this one to spend diplomatic capital on an issue few in the US understand or care about. 

Q.  Besides the noted progress in the European commission reports and five consecutive recommendations for starting the negotiations that were not adopted by the European Council, Macedonia is still in the waiting room of EU and that has a bad effect on public opinion in Macedonia. What could possible be different now so Macedonian public can be convinced to believe in the EU politics?

A.  The trick to getting into the EU is to be technically and legislatively well-prepared, so that when the politics open a window–which happens only rarely–you can get in quickly.  That is the role of the HLAD.  Macedonia should continue what it has been doing:  aligning itself carefully with the acquis communitaire and playing a positive role in regional affairs.  

Q.  The name issue is a complex problem that Greece has with our constitutional name, it drags through a whole 2 decades, and it’s the main barrier for Macedonia’s road to the EU. Greece’s behavior is inconsistent with the policy of enlargement. For how long the Union can tolerate Greek blocks for Macedonia?

A.  I think Greece is wrong to do what it is doing, but there is nothing unusual in an EU member insisting on resolution of a problem it has with a candidate as a condition for EU membership.  That’s done all the time and is not inconsistent with enlargement policy.  The EU tradition is to leave the resolution of such problems (Slovenia/Croatia for example) to the states most directly involved. 

That said, Greece’s refusal to allow Macedonia a date for accession talks is not good for stability or economic growth in Macedonia or in Greece. Destabilizing a neighbor is a classic way of getting your own country into serious difficulty.  I trust there are people in Athens who understand this, but I am not hearing loud protests from them.  

Q.  When can we expect for the European leaders to grant Macedonia a negotiation date?

A.  Whenever you convince Athens (and Sofia) to drop their objections.  I have no idea when that might be. 

Q.  Why EU leaders do not copy the Cyprus recipe for Macedonia?

A.  I don’t think most EU members regard the Cyprus precedent as a good one.  It meant bringing a problem into the Union.  It remains unresolved.