Month: October 2013
Cautious optimism on Iran
There was a lot of buzz after President Obama and President Rouhani spoke on the phone Friday afternoon. Some were excited while others were cautiously optimistic. The Stimson Center and Heinrich Boll Foundation held a timely event Monday morning on “Reform Under Rouhani: Assessing Positive Change in Iran.” Geneive Abdo, fellow at the Stimson Center and moderator of the event, began by expressing her optimism regarding the phone conversation. She sees history in the making.
Ramin Asgard, former US diplomat, explained Rouhani’s desire to improve relations with foreign powers, particularly Washington, as an economic necessity for Iran. His main promises during the June campaign were to improve economic growth, enhance civil rights and improve Iran’s relationship with the international community. Iran’s economy has contracted by an estimated one to two percent in the past year as a result of sanctions. Tehran needs to garner support for an improvement in its relations with the international community in order to achieve a breakthrough on sanctions. Tehran would like to see all the sanctions lifted in a deal with the P5+1 to give up non-civilian use of nuclear capabilities. However, total removal of sanctions would be difficult to accomplish and unlikely to occur.
Asgard pointed to four factors that favor a deal with Iran: Read more
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