Tomorrow’s Kosovo elections
Milan Marinkovic writes from Nis, about Sunday’s municipal elections in Kosovo:Given the importance of the forthcoming local elections in Kosovo for the ongoing normalization between Kosovo and Serbia and, consequently, both countries’ European perspective, it is clear that Brussels, Priština and Belgrade all want the process to succeed. One measure of success will be voter turnout, which all sides hope to be as high as possible. Another measure relates to whether the elections will pass in a peaceful atmosphere.
As for voter turnout, politicians can do their best to encourage people to vote, but cannot force them to do so. Everyone has their own right to decide for themselves whether or not to cast a ballot. In the case of those who will eventually boycott the vote, the key question is how many of them will abstain because they really don’t want to participate in the election (regardless of anyone’s personal reasons), and how many due to fear of Serb extremists like those seen in the Youtube video below. The latter concern logically raises the question of what kind of and how large security presence will be needed to avoid any possible incident during the elections and thus keep the voters safe. While the EU, Kosovo and Serbia share a common interest that the number of Serb voters – especially in the northern municipalities – be as large as possible, there is a notable difference between Belgrade and Priština in terms of the desired outcome. Priština wants to see Serbs voting in large numbers in hope that it will help integrate them into Kosovo’s legal and political systems, but at the same time fears an election result that would enable Belgrade to retain, or even increase, its political influence in the north with which it could attempt to undermine Kosovo’s independence, or at least political stability, at some (opportune) point in the future. And the outcome Priština fears most is exactly the one Belgrade is hoping for, which is why the Serbian government has been actively promoting the so-called “Srpska” initiative at the expense of other Serb candidates. Still, the government in Belgrade is more than keen on making substantial progress toward EU membership, so it will look to avoid any move that can put the process at risk. It is therefore important that Brussels express its appreciation for Belgrade should the elections proceed smoothly and commend the Dačić-Vučić administration in order to preserve the momentum while continually keeping a close eye on how Serbia handles its relationships with the neighboring countries, which it traditionally sees as its “areas of special interest”, in the first place Kosovo and Bosnia, but potentially also Montenegro. |
I would add my own personal wish that the election tomorrow goes well, with a maximum of participation and a minimum violence. Belgrade and Pristina will do well to take this big step forward together, even if there will be voices of dissent in both capitals.
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Unlike Mr Marinkovic and Dr Popovida whose communication to Mr Serwer is linked here, I’m not a Serb and I live several thousand miles from Kosovo. But if I were a Serb in Kosovo, I wouldn’t be nearly so trustful as they are of what they seemingly regard as Pristina’s statesmanlike honesty and so mistrustful of what they apparently think of as Belgrade’s Machiavellian duplicity. On the contrary, I would take the attitude that (a) I and my fellow Serbs are being compelled by distant policymakers of powerful countries, acting over our heads and against our wills, to live as a tiny minority in a country ruled by spectacularly corrupt and unscrupulous politicians where the vast majority is bitterly hostile to us; and (b) we had therefore better make the best of a bad job and vote in large numbers and so far as possible unanimously for a political alliance whose local leader has a track record of resistance to Pristina and which has the blessing of and strong links with Belgrade. That, it would seem to me, would give us the best chance of survival in an unfriendly environment–better than boycott, and better than voting for splinter parties. But as I said, I live a long way away, I’m not a Serb, and (in this respect just like Mr Marinkovic and Dr Popovida) I don’t have to face the problems of living as a Serb in Kosovo.
Gavin Lewis