The end isn’t in sight

Today, much of the public conversation about the conflict in Syria is about the infighting, the jihadist opposition groups, and President Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal. But, Syria’s economic turmoil is an issue that has been largely cast aside. The UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the UN Development Program (UNDP), and the Syrian Center for Policy Research have formed a partnership to examine the socio-economic consequences of the conflict. Alex Pollock, the Director of UNRWA’s Microfinance Program, spoke about their report at the New America Foundation on Wednesday.

Beyond the politics, the repeated attempts at opening diplomatic talks, and the fighting, there are millions of people who have suffered under President Assad. Syria’s social programs have collapsed. In the second quarter of 2013, unemployment reached an astonishing 48.6 percent, with a loss of 2.33 million jobs.  The country’s education system is “in the midst of a silent disaster,” the report says. Almost 3,000 schools have been damaged or destroyed, 683 schools have become shelters for internally displaced persons, and thousands of teachers have been displaced. Syria is experiencing a dropout rate of 49 percent, which means half of the Syrian school age population is not receiving a formal education. The health system is facing extreme hardship. About 94 hospitals are either damaged or inoperable and the 234 functional primary care centers (out of 593) are struggling to keep up with an increasing number of patients. The ratio of doctors to the population, which was 1 to 661 in 2010, dropped to 1 to 4,041 in June 2013. More than two percent of the country’s 22 million people have been killed or maimed since 2011.

The economic impact of the unrest in Syria is shocking. Due to the closing of businesses, capital flight, looting, and destruction, Syria’s gross domestic product (GDP) has taken a significant hit. Syria’s total economic loss since 2011 is 103.1 billion US dollars, which comprises 174 percent of the country’s 2010 GDP.  Today, agriculture accounts for 54 percent of the total GDP. Nongovernmental organization assistance is the only part of the service sector that has assumed an increasing share and an increasing value.  Public debt is up, private consumption has contracted by 47 percent in the second quarter of 2013, and there has been a growth in the informal economy (trading of food, rent seeking activities, economic crime, etc.).

Furthermore, the Syrian dollar has depreciated in the last two years, with the equivalent of one US dollar currently at 112 Syrian pounds. Since 2011, the cost of living for Syrians has increased by 200 percent. Food and oil prices are doubling, and oil production is down 75 percent to a meager 14,000 barrels per day.

The Syrian economy is in complete disarray. Hearing what Pollock had to say and reading through the report brings to light a whole new aspect of the conflict. When the fighting ends, the struggle will continue. If a stable, post-war Syria experiences economic growth of five percent per year, it will still take 30 years for it to return to its 2010 level.