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Bosnia in the slow lane

I did this interview earlier in the week for Bedrudin Brljavac of the Andalous Agency in Sarajevo.  I gather it has caused a bit of a sensation in Bosnia, so I am publishing the English original here:

1. Recently some prominent Bosnian experts and scholars have argued that the US has started “process of distancing” from Bosnia since Bosnian politicians over the last years could not agree on a common future of the country. In your opinion, is the US distancing itself from Bosnia?

DPS:  Yes. Washington regards Bosnia and Herzegovina as primarily the EU’s responsibility now. It also welcomes Turkish interest in Bosnia. The question of Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is still one Washington would get concerned about, if it were threatened.

2. If not, since Bosnian politicians over the last ten years or more could not agree on a common future of the country and necessary reforms regarding the country’s constitution. As some scholars argue, will now the US administration intervene in diplomatic sense and bring about changes in Bosnia’s constitution?

DPS:  No. That’s up to the Bosnians now. The U.S. might try to help create favorable conditions for constitutional reform, but it won’t seek to impose changes.

3. Also, over the last two-three years some research and scholars as well stressed that there is a possibility of disintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina due to years-long deadlock and ethnic tensions. Do you thing that such a state of affairs can happen in the future? Will the country move towards deeper integration or disintegration?

DPS:  Washington won’t let Bosnia come apart. But deeper integration depends on the Bosnians themselves.

4. And would an international community allow disintegration of Bosnia since it would dramatically destabilize not only Bosnia but a whole region?

DPS:  The international community would not allow disintegration.

5. Although Bosnian politicians are to a large extent responsible for the deadlock and political problems in the country still it is for sure that an international community is responsible as well. In your opinion, to what extent is international community, especially the US and EU, is guilty for the Bosnian political fatigue?

DPS:  The international community gave Bosnia the Dayton constitution, which is certainly part of the problem. But that doesn’t mean we have to solve the problem, or even could if we wanted to. Americans certainly feel that they’ve given Bosnia its share of their time and attention. Today they have many more pressing problems.

That said, I think Washington, Berlin and Zagreb could together do a great deal of create conditions in which the Bosnians would be able to solve their problems. The EU accession process will play an important role in giving Bosnians the right incentives.

6. Since almost all the countries from the Western Balkans move forward on their path to the EU is it possible that Bosnia will in some foreseeable future stay isolated and on the margins of the EU?

DPS:  Yes. There are no free passes to the EU. Bosnia will have to meet the membership criteria in order to get in. It is already far behind its neighbors in the regatta. Montenegro, Serbia and Macedonia all have prospects to enter the EU before Bosnia. Even Kosovo might. If Bosnians are uncomfortable with that idea, they need to elect governments that will accelerate their own preparations for the EU.

7. In the aftermath of elections held in Kosovo, do you think that holding an elections was one new strategic step from Pristina on its path to genuine independence at a global arena?

DPS:  Yes, the elections were an important step. But they do not complete the process. There is still a good deal of progress to be made in implementing the Belgrade/Pristina agreements and in normalizing their relations. That will require diplomatic recognition and exchange of ambassadors, which I hope will happen much sooner than most people think. It is really meaningless for Belgrade to continue to refuse recognition when it has accepted Kosovo’s constitutional framework as the foundation for law and law enforcement in the entire territory.

8. After years of international intervention in the Balkans now its seems like war and ethnic conflicts are behind us. Still, ethnic polarisation is widespread in many countries and inter-ethnic reconciliation and dialogue are rare occurences. Do you think that wars and conflicts can happen in the Balkans in the years ahead?

DPS:  I don’t think anyone has either the capability or the desire to created the kind of mess the Balkans saw in the 1990s.  Many countries have ethnic polarization and tension, including the US.  Democracies learn to deal with these problems in the political arena.  War does not work well as a solution.