Peace picks, November 18-22
DC’s top events of the week:
1. Oil Security and the US Military Commitment to the Persian Gulf
Monday, November 18 | 9:00am – 2:30pm
George Washington University Elliott School, 1957 E Street NW, Lindner Family Commons Room 602
9:00-9:20: Introduction
Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
9:30-11:00: Threats to U.S. Oil Security in the Gulf: Past, Present and Future
Salim Yaqub, University of California-Santa Barbara
Thomas Lippman, Middle East Institute
Joshua Rovner, Southern Methodist University
Chair: Rosemary Kelanic, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
11:15-12:15: The Economic Stakes: Oil Shocks and Military Costs
Eugene Gholz, LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas-Austin
Kenneth Vincent, George Washington University
Chair: Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
12:45-2:15: Possibilities for U.S. Grand Strategy in the Persian Gulf
Daniel Byman, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Caitlin Talmadge, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
Rosemary Kelanic, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
Chair: Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
The U.S. strategic objective of protecting Persian Gulf oil has generated little controversy since the Gulf became a focus of U.S. military deployments over three decades ago. This may seem unsurprising given the widely-appreciated importance of oil to the global economy. Nevertheless, quite dramatic changes have occurred in the regional balance of power, the nature of security threats, and the global oil market since the U.S. made its commitment-raising the possibility that the U.S. role should be revisited. This conference examines two critical questions for U.S. grand strategy in the Gulf. First, should the United States continue to rely on military capabilities to preserve the flow of Persian Gulf oil? Second, if the U.S. security commitment remains strategically sound, what military posture should U.S. forces adopt? The conference panels examine the key rationales driving current U.S. policies, the costs and benefits of alternative approaches, and options for revising the U.S. military stance in the region.
Lunch will be served.
2. Magnificent Delusions: Pakistan, the United States, and an Epic History of Misunderstanding
Monday, November 18 | 11:45am – 2:00pm
Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street NW, 6th Floor
Pakistan and the U.S. have been allies since Pakistan’s birth in 1947, but the relationship has never been friction-free. The discovery of Osama bin Laden in the Pakistani garrison city of Abbottabad exposed the schism that has long plagued what may be America’s most difficult external relationship. Opinion polls show that a majority of citizens in both countries do not trust each other. The U.S. increasingly sees nuclear-armed Pakistan, home to a growing Islamist insurgency, as a threat to its security. Pakistanis, on the other hand, believe the US has not been a trustworthy ally.
Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Husain Haqqani, who served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the U.S. from 2008 to 2011, has spent many years researching and writing about his country’s complex political history. His important new book Magnificent Delusions carefully examines the self-limiting, India-focused “national narrative” cooperatively developed over the years by Pakistan’s insecure military-intelligence apparatus and fundamentalist religious groups. Haqqani offers an equally incisive analysis of the narrow security paradigm on which U.S. policy toward Pakistan has long been based, a paradigm fracturing as America confronts a terrorist enemy in the very Jihadist movement it once helped nurture during the Cold War—and a Pakistani military elite that many in Washington consider unwilling or unable to break ties with these Jihadists.
In Magnificent Delusions, Ambassador Husain Haqqani has produced a detailed and compelling explanation of longstanding obstacles to effective U.S.-Pakistani cooperation–and a timely warning about the increasingly adversarial course the two countries’ relationship may take in the future. Based on his own first-hand experience—and a rich trove of primary documents, many of them previously unpublished—Husain Haqqani’s new book is a must-read contribution to proper Western understanding of South Asia—and of that region’s role in the sustenance and spread of global jihad.
Hudson Senior Fellow Hillel Fradkin will moderate the event. Books will be available for purchase and signing by the author.
3. Turkey’s Energy Strategy: Weathering Uncertainties
Monday, November 18 | 12:00pm – 1:45pm
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW
A regional conflict in Syria and a fast-expanding economy are pushing Turkey to embrace new energy strategies, focusing on new technologies and a realignment of partnerships. Memduh Karakullukçu, president of the Istanbul based Global Relations Forum, will discuss how structural shifts in energy markets will shape Turkey’s strategic outlook for the future and the implications of Turkey’s approach to new energy technologies. Karakullukçu will assess Turkey’s planned investments in nuclear energy and the role of deeper institutional engagement with global non-proliferation regimes as part of a comprehensive energy strategy. Carnegie’s Thomas de Waal will moderate.
MEMDUH KARAKULLUKÇU
Memduh Karakullukçu is vice chairman and president of Global Relations Forum and a founding partner of the online legal informatics enterprise, kanunum.com. His advisory work specializes in higher education and technology policy, and the analysis of international economic and political affairs. Karakullukçu served as senior adviser to the chairwoman of the Turkish Industry and Business Association (TUSIAD) from 2007 to 2010.
THOMAS DE WAAL
Thomas de Waal is a senior associate in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing primarily in the South Caucasus region comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia and their breakaway territories, as well as the wider Black Sea region. He is the author of The Caucasus: An Introduction (Oxford University Press, 2010).
4. Critical Perspectives on International Intervention
Tuesday, November 19 | 9:00am – 3:00pm
University of Maryland Francis Kind Carey School of Law
Throughout the world, there is a continuing trend of traditional global powers intervening into conflicts in which they are not a party. They have done so economically, diplomatically, and militarily. There have been times when this has been called for by global diplomatic norms, by suspected human rights violations, and at times in order to affect regional and global stability.
Furthermore, in a world with quickly advancing communication and transportation technology, conflicts are not so easily kept within national borders. An understanding of international intervention is therefore necessary in order to understand not only recent events, but many other major events over the last 20 years.
This symposium will bring together legal, political, diplomatic, and military experts to discuss the differing perspectives of international intervention into conflicts.
Program
9–9:45 a.m. Continental Breakfast (Krongard Room)
9:45–10 a.m. Welcome and Opening Remarks (Ceremonial Court Room)
10:15 a.m.–12:15 p.m Panel: International Intervention in Civil Conflicts (Ceremonial Court Room)
Rosa Brooks
Schwartz Senior Fellow, New America Foundation and Professor of Law, Georgetown University Law Center
Todd Huntley
Commander, U.S. Navy and Chief, Interagency Policy and Operations Office of the Staff Judge Advocate, US Special Operations Command
Feisal al-Istrabadi
Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Deputy Permanent Representative of Iraq to the United Nations, 2004-2007 and Professor, Indiana University Maurer School of Law
Maxwell O. Chibundu, Moderator
Professor of Law, University of Maryland Francis King Carey School of Law
12:15–1:15 p.m Break for Lunch (Click here for local dining options)
1:15–3 p.m. Keynote Lecture (Ceremonial Court Room)
Henry J. Richardson, III
Professor of Law, Temple University Beasley School of Law
5. A Lens on Somalia: Security and Development Going Forward
Tuesday, November 19 | 9:30am – 11:30am
Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Fifth Floor
It has been just over one year since the Somalia Federal Government took over from the Transitional Federal Government, marking the end of “transition” in Somalia. However, there are still a number of challenges and potential opportunities for Somalia in the near and longer-term future that will require attention if the state is to see stability, and economic and development progress.
This discussion will bring together a distinguished group of panelists who will provide an in-depth analysis of the current security and development situation in Somalia. Daniel Kebede Southern Voices African Research Scholar with the Wilson Center’s Africa Program and PhD candidate at the Institute for Peace and Security Studies in Ethiopia, will focus his remarks on the securitization of peacebuilding in Somalia, including the role of al-Shabaab. Melanie Greenberg, President of the Alliance for Peacebuilding, will discuss development objectives, goals, and potential impediments to success of the newly implemented pilot program for Somalia under the New Deal framework. Terrence Lyons will provide a regional perspective and look at how the issues in Somalia are affected by and affect its neighboring states, and what that means for the United States when developing regional and state policies and programs. Steve McDonald, Senior Advisor to the Africa Program and Leadership Project at The Wilson Center, will moderate the discussion.
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Southern Voices African Research ScholarAddis Adaba University
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President, Alliance for Peacebuilding
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Associate Professor of Conflict Resolution, School of Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University
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Senior Advisor, Africa Program and Project on Leadership and Building State Capacity
6. Subcommittee Hearing: Crisis in the Central African Republic
Tuesday, November 19 | 2:00pm
House Rayburn Office Building, Room 2200
Panel I
The Honorable Linda Thomas-Greenfield
Assistant Secretary
Bureau of African Affairs
U.S. Department of State
Panel II
The Most Reverend Nestor-Désiré Nongo-Aziagbia
Roman Catholic Bishop of Bossangoa, Central African Republic
7. Subcommittee Hearing: US Policy Towards the Arabian Peninsula – Yemen and Bahrain
Tuesday, November 19 | 2:30pm
House Rayburn Office Building, Room 2172
Ms. Barbara Leaf
Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Arabian Peninsula
U.S. Department of State
8. Between the “First Step” with Iran and Nuclear Fallout with Israel
Tuesday, November 19 | 4:00pm
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050
Iranian and P5+1 negotiators return to Geneva on November 20 after failing to close a “first step” agreement designed to cap Iran’s nuclear progress in exchange for limited sanctions relief. The prospect of that partial accord has provoked strong opposition from Israel and certain Arab states as well as congressional advocates for a full enrichment suspension now.
To discuss the strategic, political, and technical aspects of the proposed agreement, The Washington Institute is pleased to host a Policy Forum with Dennis Ross, Olli Heinonen, and Robert Satloff.
Dennis Ross is counselor at The Washington Institute and former senior Middle East advisor to President Obama.
Olli Heinonen is a senior fellow with the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University and a former deputy director-general for safeguards at the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Robert Satloff is executive director of The Washington Institute.
9. Endless War? The 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force
Wednesday, November 20 | 3:00pm – 5:00pm
American University, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Beacon Conference Room (SIS 300)
TO REGISTER, Contact Eric Fillinger at usfp@american.edu
US Foreign Policy Professor Shoon Murray will lead a discussion of the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force. Guest panelists include Lou Fisher, Scholar in Residence at the Constitution Project, and Stephen Vladeck, Professor of Law at American University’s Washington College of Law.
10. Syria: The Prospects and Politics of Intervention
Thursday, November 21 | 12:00pm
Rumi Forum, 1150 17th Street NW, Suite 408
The Asad regime’s heavy handed crackdown on massive peaceful protests in the early days of the Arab Spring led to civil war in Syria by the fall of 2011. Numerous groups emerged to oppose Asad, from the moderate Free Syrian Army to many Islamic groups, including some with a Muslim Brotherhood background, and some with Salafist orientation, and Jabhat al Nusra, which is affiliated with Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia (AQI). Foreign powers quickly engaged in the conflict, with Russia and Iran supplying arms, economic and diplomatic support for Asad, and the Lebanese Hizbollah joining the Syrian regime openly in the field as the regime’s fortunes deteriorated this past winter. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey provided support for many rebel factions and the West, in tandem with Turkey and Arab partners, tried to cobble together a unified, moderate opposition to lead the charge against Asad. In this later effort, they were unsuccessful in part because of the rivalry between Saudi Arabia (backing salafist factions) and Qatar (which has favored the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria and Egypt) Calls by politicians and foreign policy commentators in the West for military action to weaken or even overthrow the Asad regime are undercut by the disunity of the opposition and the inability of those who would be leaders to cooperate with their rivals, and the fears that most effective opposition fighters are the most extreme. It is this last fear that the regime has been able to use so effectively to rouse sectarian fears among Syria’s diverse religious and ethnic population.
The brutality of the Syrian government’s tactics – especially the apparent use of chemical weapons (CW) in August – has prompted many in the West and the broader international community to call for military action against Asad, at a minimum to make the point that CW is especially abhorrent and cannot be used without punishment. Seeking recourse in the UN and the IAEA is problematic, however. Russian and Chinese opposition in the UN Security Council makes it highly unlikely that the UN will approve any military action against Syria. President Obama, long under pressure from allies and from political elites at home to intervene, has tread cautiously, but he did lay down a redline against the use of CW in the summer of 2012. Asad’s crossing of that red line increased the pressure on the President to act. But the British parliament has taken the UK out of any coalition, the American public (both Democratic and Republican) is firmly against action, and Congress seems reluctant to approve even a modest retaliatory strike. The President’s acceptance of the Russian proposal for placing Syrian chemical weapons under international or Russian control (and Syria’s quick acceptance) has for the short term substituted diplomacy for military action. In the current circumstances, what should the President do, and what can we expect to happen in Syria?
Ambassador (Ret) John Herbst is currently Senior Director of the Center for Complex Operations (CCO) at National Defense University (NDU). In this position he oversees a staff of 15 and a budget of over $2million in collecting lessons learned from stability operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Under his direction CCO has begun to turn its attention to new security challenges such as Libya, Mali and transnational threats. He also teaches a course on Central Asia and lectures on stability operation, peacekeeping in Africa, and Central Asia and Ukraine at both the National War College and the Eisenhower School.
Joining Ambassador Herbst and moderating the discussion is Dr. Judith Yaphe, a distinguished Research Fellow for the Middle East in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University at Ft. McNair, Washington, DC. She specializes in Iraq, Iran, and Arabian/Persian Gulf history, politics, and security issues. Among Dr. Yaphe’s accomplishments was her role as senior political analyst on Iraq and the Gulf, for which she received the Intelligence Medal of Commendation and other awards. Her recent publications include Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran(NDU, 2005) and The Middle East in 2015: The Impact of Regional Trends on U.S. Strategic Planning(NDU Press: 2002). Dr. Yaphe’s current research is focused on Iraq, Iran, and the strategic environment in the Persian Gulf region. Dr. Yaphe served as an adviser to the Iraq Study Group headed by former Secretary of State James Baker and the Hon. Lee Hamilton; its report was published in 2006. She frequently briefs senior U.S. and foreign officials and has testified before Senate and Congressional committees on Iraq and regional strategic issues.
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