peacefare.net

Video duelling

Secretary of State Kerry took to video yesterday to explain the nuclear deal with Iran.  He does a good job, at a junior high school science level.  He seems well-suited to the role.

Meanwhile Iran’s President Rouhani put out a “yes we can” version of his inaugural address:

I’m still looking for a subtitled version but Max Fisher has helpfully published some excerpts.

No one should conclude that the Iranians are better at video duelling.  Their Foreign Minister’s soppy video last week was far from fully successful with the Western audience it was intended to impress, despite his many years living in the United States (he was Tehran’s Permanent Representative at the United Nations).

Video duelling is certainly preferable to the military kind, but the content quotient is so thin it is hard to imagine this Youtube diplomacy* will have much impact.  The US Congress will continue to fulminate, but not pass new sanctions that go into effect before the six month duration of the deal wraps up next April.  Hardliners in Tehran are more tight-lipped, as they need to be careful to toe the Supreme Leader’s line of support for the deal.

I continue to believe that we need a broader peace process between Iran and the United States, one that gets our parliaments, thinktanks, universities and media talking with each other.  A more permanent agreement will have to allow Iran some nuclear technology but prevent a rapid breakout to nuclear weapons.  It will also have to lift some sanctions (others in place because of human rights violations may need to stay in place).  I don’t see how that can be done unless there is much broader mutual understanding, in addition to tight verification provisions.  Videos are not going to suffice.

*Note that the State Department doesn’t actually post its video to Youtube, presumably to prevent it being tampered with.