Month: November 2013
Broaden the peace process with Iran
Reuters published this piece today:
High-level Geneva talks with Iran adjourned November 11 without reaching an agreement. Lower-level talks are to scheduled to reconvene Wednesday. The Western objective is a pause in Iran’s nuclear program — stopping the clock and allowing more time to reach a permanent agreement.
Is stopping the clock a good idea? It was done once before. In 2004-5, Iran stopped enrichment temporarily. President Hassan Rouhani was then secretary of the Iranian National Security Council and negotiated the pause. A permanent agreement proved impossible at that time. So Iran started enrichment again and has now expanded its capacity. You’ll have to click here for more.
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Lincoln’s example
Today is the 150th anniversary of the Gettysburg address. Talk of it in Washington is inescapable. So here is Lincoln’s signed and dated version:
Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.
Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.
But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate — we can not consecrate — we can not hallow — this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us — that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion — that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain — that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom — and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.
Abraham Lincoln
November 19, 1863
The American version of English does not get much better than this. That bit about the world not remembering was happily mistaken. But the rest rings true. Note however that Lincoln says nothing about glory, nothing about victory or defeat, or even about whose forces fought. His focus is entirely on making something happen that will redeem the sacrifices made. We do well to follow his example.
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Deal, or no deal?
The nuclear talks with Iran are officially with the P5+1 (that’s the US, UK, France, Russia and China). But they are increasingly looking like a negotiation (at a distance) between Israel and Iran, with the P5+1 acting as mediators and looking for a mutually acceptable compromise. What are the odds of finding one? It depends on what we all call leverage. That comes from being able to walk away, because you’ve got a “best alternative to a negotiated agreement” (BATNA) that you prefer over the agreement on offer.
Iran’s BATNA is clear: it can continue its nuclear program, which entails continuing also to endure increasingly tight sanctions as well as the risk an Israeli or American attack. President Rouhani doesn’t like this option, because he has promised Iranians relief from sanctions, improved relations with the rest of the world, and an improved economy. Iranians are not interested in going to war. But Supreme Leader Khamenei can still veto any proposed agreement. There is every reason to believe he would do so if somehow his negotiators dared to bring home an agreement that completely dismantled Iran’s nuclear program, blocking it from any future enrichment (or reprocessing). Read more
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Crackdown, but not too far
Milan Marinković writes from Niš:
Serb extremist attacks on three polling stations in the northern part of Kosovo during the recent first round of local elections, along with an already steady increase in drug-related violence and crime in Serbia, have made Serbian prime minister Ivica Dačić and his deputy Aleksandar Vučić announce a “historically unprecedented” crackdown. Their focus is on football hooliganism and far right political extremism – both of which have close ties with illegal activity in northern Kosovo, as well as with each other. According to recent media revelations, a growing number of Serbian football hooligans and ultranationalists are joining the influential international neo-Nazi organization “Combat 18,” originally founded in the UK.
Rhetorical determination notwithstanding, the government is highly unlikely to launch a full-scale war against the country’s most powerful criminal organizations due to the palpable security risks, compounded by organized crime’s penetration of vital state institutions. Police departments – and in some cases even parts of police departments – have been fighting among themselves. There has also been a series of incidents and crimes committed in a relatively short time period by members of the elite police unit, Gendarmerie. The Gendarmerie is of particular concern because it is beyond doubt the strongest armed force within the entire security sector in terms of training, equipment and overall combat capability. Read more
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Peace picks, November 18-22
DC’s top events of the week:
1. Oil Security and the US Military Commitment to the Persian Gulf
Monday, November 18 | 9:00am – 2:30pm
George Washington University Elliott School, 1957 E Street NW, Lindner Family Commons Room 602
9:00-9:20: Introduction
Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
9:30-11:00: Threats to U.S. Oil Security in the Gulf: Past, Present and Future
Salim Yaqub, University of California-Santa Barbara
Thomas Lippman, Middle East Institute
Joshua Rovner, Southern Methodist University
Chair: Rosemary Kelanic, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
11:15-12:15: The Economic Stakes: Oil Shocks and Military Costs
Eugene Gholz, LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas-Austin
Kenneth Vincent, George Washington University
Chair: Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
12:45-2:15: Possibilities for U.S. Grand Strategy in the Persian Gulf
Daniel Byman, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Caitlin Talmadge, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
Rosemary Kelanic, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
Chair: Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
The U.S. strategic objective of protecting Persian Gulf oil has generated little controversy since the Gulf became a focus of U.S. military deployments over three decades ago. This may seem unsurprising given the widely-appreciated importance of oil to the global economy. Nevertheless, quite dramatic changes have occurred in the regional balance of power, the nature of security threats, and the global oil market since the U.S. made its commitment-raising the possibility that the U.S. role should be revisited. This conference examines two critical questions for U.S. grand strategy in the Gulf. First, should the United States continue to rely on military capabilities to preserve the flow of Persian Gulf oil? Second, if the U.S. security commitment remains strategically sound, what military posture should U.S. forces adopt? The conference panels examine the key rationales driving current U.S. policies, the costs and benefits of alternative approaches, and options for revising the U.S. military stance in the region.
Lunch will be served.
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Human ingenuity rises to the challenge
David Dunford and Ghassan Muhsin’s Talking to Strangers: The Struggle to Rebuild Iraq’s Foreign Ministry tells an important tale: how people from different cultures and life experiences can come together to reconstruct a state collapsed by autocracy and war. It isn’t easy. The first several chapters are devoted to David’s tussles with American bureaucracy and bad manners as well as Ghassan’s with Saddam Hussein’s bureaucracy and thuggish habits. It is notable, a perhaps unintended irony of their title, that the two often had an easier time talking to each other than to their own compatriots.
The two former foreign service officers, one American and the other Iraqi, got together in Baghad in the spring of 2003 to rebuild Iraq’s foreign ministry. It is then that the ill-fated retired general Jay Garner, head of the Office for Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance (ORHA), realized that the most important part of his mission, civil administration, was left out of the office’s name. Dunford, who worked for Garner, and Ghassan nonetheless got busy, with a minimum of guidance and resources. Even a place to sit and internet connections were problematic. Communications difficulties plagued their courageous efforts. Read more
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