Month: December 2013
The 2013 vintage in the peace vineyard
2013 has been a so-so vintage in the peace vineyard.
The Balkans saw improved relations between Serbia and Kosovo, progress by both towards the European Union and Croatian membership. Albania managed a peaceful alternation in power. But Bosnia and Macedonia remain enmired in long-running constitutional and nominal difficulties, respectively. Slovenia, already a NATO and EU member, ran into financial problems, as did Cyprus. Turkey‘s long-serving and still politically dominant prime minister managed to get himself into trouble over a shopping center and corruption.
The former Soviet space has likewise seen contradictory developments: Moldova‘s courageous push towards the EU, Ukraine‘s ongoing, nonviolent rebellion against tighter ties to Russia, and terrorist challenges to the Sochi Winter Olympics. Read more
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A good year for Kosovo, big challenges ahead
I did this piece for the New Year’s edition of Kosova Sot, which was scheduled to publish it today:
2013 was a good year for Kosovo. It reached an important agreement with Serbia, got a green light from the EU for stabilization and association talks with Brussels, and conducted good elections on its whole territory for the first time since independence in 2008. These are not spectacular achievements, but they point in the right direction: an increasingly normal state with a future in the European Union.
What stands in the way? Kosovo is still not sovereign in vital two dimensions. One is the military dimension: it lacks an army and other ways of defending itself. The other is the rule of law dimension: it lacks the capacity to enforce the law on the whole territory and with respect to everyone.
The army is not an immediate problem, as the NATO-led KFOR provides territorial security. But KFOR will only be around for a few more years. Pristina needs to devote some quality time to working out what the major challenges to its security will be over the next 5-10 years and how it can respond effectively. Read more
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Wait and see
This morning’s New York Times offers polls that suggest the able Ashraf Ghani and opposition leader Abdullah (aka Abdullah Abdullah, but only because Westerners expect two names even if Afghans sometimes have only one) are running strong in the presidential race, which culminates in an April 5 election. One of the polls also suggests that President Karzai’s much-anticipated endorsement of one of the candidates won’t have much impact, if it occurs. While Ghani is a sharp critic of foreign aid to Afghanistan and Abdullah has opposed Karzai since losing to him in 2009, Washington would certainly prefer either of them to several of the more dubious protagonists. They both rank as more sensible than the increasingly irascible Karzai.
By contrast, the Washington Post reports on a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that predicts
Afghanistan would likely descend into chaos quickly if Washington and Kabul don’t sign a security pact that would keep an international military contingent there beyond 2014 — a precondition for the delivery of billions of dollars in aid that the United States and its allies have pledged to spend in Afghanistan over the coming years. Read more
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Excess funds
It’s the end of a not-so-great year, so if you’ve got some excess funds here are a few worthy causes that happen to have crossed my screen and might improve our collective future. I’ve steered away from the same old. None of these are tax-deductible causes, but they all are worthy investments of small amounts of cash burning a hole in your pocket:
1. Open Planet: “an innovative travel series exploring sustainable projects around the globe. The series follows inspiring projects which investigate a new and creative way of empowering communities worldwide; grassroots movements that are tackling poverty, illiteracy and changing the way we perceive social cooperation.” I don’t know these folks, but it sees to me they are trying to do something good, starting in Nepal:
2. Kiva: a non-profit organization with a mission to connect people through lending to alleviate poverty. Leveraging the internet and a worldwide network of microfinance institutions, Kiva lets individuals lend as little as $25 to help create opportunity around the world. I’ve had people tell me Kiva is a Ponzi scheme, but the stats are good:
Latest Statistics
| Total amount lent through Kiva: | $511,245,550 |
| Kiva Users: | 1,556,438 |
| Kiva Users who have funded a loan: | 1,029,658 |
| Borrowers funded through Kiva: | 1,202,651 |
| Number of loans made through Kiva: | 650,551 |
| Kiva Field Partners: | 237 |
| Countries where Kiva Field Partners are located: | 73 |
| Repayment rate: | 99.02% |
| Average loan size: | $412.03 |
| Average loans made per Kiva lender: | 10.12 |
3. Music
a. Peter Kogan’s Cornucopia: Original compositions written in tribute to jazz greats Fats Waller, Duke Ellington, Thelonious Monk, Milt Jackson, Mary Lou Williams and Wayne Shorter. Performed by an octet of some of the finest Twin Cities jazz musicians. David Schiff, music professor at Reed, writes “Jazz is beautiful! Sit down and savor the tracks on this album, all composed and arranged by Peter Kogan aka the much-esteemed Timpanist of the Minnesota Orchestra.” Peter is locked out of his day job, so did this night music. I walked to school with him from first grade until eleventh and enjoyed breakfast with him Thursday. Music doesn’t get more pleasing than this!
b. But if you don’t like jazz, try Oliver Caplan’s Illuminations: “With memorable melodies, and colorful interplay, American Composer Oliver Caplan’s debut album Illuminations shines with deep, resonant romanticism. A heartfelt reflection on beauty and growth, Illuminations calls audiences to experience the intricacies of imagination and metamorphosis.” Oliver is my cousin (first, once removed). A Dartmouth graduate, he makes some great sounds!
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Understanding doesn’t mean liking
Meir Javedanfar, one of Israel’s keenest Iran-watchers, advises wisely that we need to watch Iran’s domestic politics closely if we want to know what is going to happen in the nuclear talks:
Iran’s foreign policy in 2014 is likely to be more chaotic than it was this year.
The reason is that Iran’s domestic politics is likely to be more chaotic in 2014, and in Iran, like in many other countries, foreign policy is an extension of what happens at home.
Iranian President Rouhani walks a tightrope stretched between Supreme Leader Khamanei and various conservative factions, especially those associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. A good shake from either end could leave Rouhani off balance and unable to conclude either implementation of the existing six-month agreement or negotiation of a more permanent arrangement governing Iran’s nuclear program. Read more
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Ode to joy
Hard to beat this for Christmas morning, repeated from last year:
My own morning thus far: za’atar on grilled bread, two stiff espressos, a roaring fireplace, Amahl and the Night Visitors, now the Messiah, later Sacred Songs of Gee’s Bend and the whole Beethoven 9.
Enjoy the day!
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