Egypt gets ready to vote, again

Wael Nawara says the constitutional referendum to be held on January 14 and 15 will be a legitimacy test for Egypt’s current military-backed regime.  Approval is virtually guaranteed.  But to be considered a success the margin of approval has to at least beat the constitution drafted in 2012 under Muslim Brotherhood President Morsi, which was approved by 64% in last December’s referendum.

According to Nawara, even the Brotherhood says 75% will make the new constitution legitimate, though he is quick to point out that the Brotherhood will likely challenge whether the vote is free and fair no matter what.  So let’s say 70% would be a pretty clear post facto legitimation for most non-Brothers of the June 30 coup that installed the current president.

The bigger question is what different levels of percentage turnout will signify.  In 2012 the turnout for the constitutional referencum was miserable:  less than 33% of almost 52 million voters went to the polls.  Average voter turnout in past elections, according to IFES, is 34%.  Failing to beat that would be hard, though the presumption of a positive vote will hurt.  The previous presidential election, which Morsi won, had turnout of 46% and 52% respectively in its two rounds.  Anything above 50% in the upcoming constitutional referendum would be an endorsement I suppose, but above 60% would be a more resounding one.

That isn’t likely.  Egyptians are exhausted.  The “party of the couch” was always big, but after two years of turmoil the desire for stability is strong.  People aren’t likely to bestir themselves to vote in a referendum bound to pass.  The Muslim Brotherhood is likely to urge people to stay home or to vote no, in an effort to deny the referendum the legitimacy it seeks.

What comes after the referendum is what really counts.  The original roadmap specified in the wake of the coup said parliamentary elections would be first.  The process is supposed to being within six months of the referendum, but it is now unclear whether parliamentary or presidential elections will be held first.  It matters.  It would be far better for democratic prospects in Egypt if the parliamentary elections precede, followed by a presidential election.  If the presidential election is held first and General Sissi, the  presumptive frontrunner, wins in a landslide, the prospects for a truly representative parliament will be much reduced.

Also up in the air is the electoral system.  Under discussion is a system of electoral districts with two members each, 80% elected as independents and 20% on party lists (in the last parliamentary election, two-thirds were elected on party lists).  This would presumably disfavor large, national political machines like the Muslim Brotherhood, which won more than 37% of the vote (but almost half the seats) in the November 2011/January 2012 parliamentary elections.  However, there are no guarantees that “independents” are really independent, only that they run as individuals without being named on a party list.

The draft constitution already goes a long way to restoring the power of Egypt’s military and judiciary, while seeking to bar religious parties and nominally strengthening human rights protection.  These next elections–referendum, presidential and parliamentary–will distribute what power is still available among whoever contests them.  A lot is at stake:  governance and stability in the Arab world’s most populous country, a big economy in a lot of trouble, a key player vis-a-vis Israel, and an important theater in the struggle between secular and Islamist politics.  None of the past elections has done more than complicate Egypt’s predicament.  Is there any reason to hope for better from the upcoming referendum and elections?