Day: December 24, 2013
Jail time
The news is full of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s release from jail of former rival Mikhail Khodorkovsky and members of the punk rock band Pussy Riot. All concerned were due to be released soon anyway. Their early release signals that Putin is feeling confident. Neither Khodorkovsky nor Pussy Riot is likely to mount a serious challenge to his position and power anytime soon. Russia’s pro-democracy protest movement has withered in the years since it fielded large crowds in Moscow.
Less noticed is the sentencing in Egypt of human rights activists, including my friend Ahmed Maher, to three years hard labor and substantial fines for organizing a demonstration defying a decree issued by the military-backed government that took over after this summer’s coup. The tough sentences indicate that the military is not confident of its power and position. It needs high turnout and high approval in the January 14-15 referendum on its recently proposed constitution before it can be certain the secular activists won’t be able to mobilize large protests. Once their political edge is removed, they too may be released early or even pardoned. Read more
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The handwriting on the wall
The European Council at the level of heads of state and government decided Friday that accession negotiations with Serbia will open formally January 21. This marks an important advance in Serbia’s transition from a thuggish autocracy under Slobodan Milosevic to an increasingly open and democratic society 14 years later. The process of meeting European Union standards and gaining admission will likely take another decade, as Croatia’s accession did. It will be a hard slog. But many of the benefits and costs of EU membership occur even before formal accession. Serbia can expect ample funding to pay for the adjustment process.
This puts Serbia more or less in the middle of the pack in the Balkans “regatta” for EU membership. Slovenia and Croatia are already EU members, Montenegro is in the process of negotiating accession, Macedonia is already a candidate and awaits only resolution of its dispute with Greece over its name to start accession negotiations, Albania awaits candidate status, Bosnia and Herzegovina has concluded a Stabilization and Association Agreement (a prelude to candidacy) and Kosovo is still negotiating one. But Serbia has particular weight in the Balkans: it is geographically central, played an important role for the better part of a century in Yugoslavia and is still demographically and economically a relative heavyweight, despite a greying population and a stalled economy. Read more
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