Month: December 2013
The world according to CFR
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) survey of prevention priorities for 2014 is out today. Crowdsourced, it is pretty much the definition of elite conventional wisdom. Pundits of all stripes contribute.
The top tier includes contingencies with high impact and moderate likelihood (intensification of the Syrian civil war, a cyberattack on critical US infrastructure, attacks on the Iranian nuclear program or evidence of nuclear weapons intent, a mass casualty terrorist attack on the US or an ally, or a severe North Korean crisis) as well as those with moderate impact and high likelihood (in a word “instability” in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq or Jordan). None merited the designation high impact and high likelihood, though many of us might have suggested Syria, Iraq and Pakistan for that category. Read more
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Unreasonable is a relative standard
Here is what I would regard as a vigorous and intelligent critique of the “surveillance state” from Mikko Hypponen, a Finnish computer security expert:
The most basic point here is the one he quotes from Dilma Roussef: Read more
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Egypt gets ready to vote, again
Wael Nawara says the constitutional referendum to be held on January 14 and 15 will be a legitimacy test for Egypt’s current military-backed regime. Approval is virtually guaranteed. But to be considered a success the margin of approval has to at least beat the constitution drafted in 2012 under Muslim Brotherhood President Morsi, which was approved by 64% in last December’s referendum.
According to Nawara, even the Brotherhood says 75% will make the new constitution legitimate, though he is quick to point out that the Brotherhood will likely challenge whether the vote is free and fair no matter what. So let’s say 70% would be a pretty clear post facto legitimation for most non-Brothers of the June 30 coup that installed the current president. Read more
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Peace picks, December 16-20
DC is beginning to slow down as the holiday season is fast approaching, but there are still some great events this week. We won’t likely publish another edition until January 5, as the year-end doldrums will likely last until then:
1. The Middle Kingdom Looks East, West, North, and South: China’s Strategies on its Periphery
Monday, December 16 | 9:00am – 10:30am
Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Fifth Floor
China’s recent declaration of an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea and its territorial claims over 80% of the South China Sea are focusing renewed American attention on Chinese strategy. To understand China’s policies, deployments, and ambitions in the Western Pacific, we must analyze China’s attitudes toward all of its 14 border States and Pacific neighbors, and toward its near and more distant seas.
The Kissinger Institute’s 2013 series of public programs will conclude with a talk by renowned author Edward Luttwak, who will lead a discussion of China’s strategy throughout its periphery, with an emphasis on the Diaoyu/Senkakus and other regional disputes.
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Will benefits of Geneva II outweigh its costs?
Yesterday’s Friends of Syria Statement from the UK chair tries to clarify the attitudes of leading supporters of the Syrian opposition in light of the Islamic Front’s recent moves to claim exclusive leadership of the military effort. This threatens to leave out in the cold both the Supreme Military Council, a CIA-backed funnel for support to armed moderates, and its political leadership, in what is now being called the National Coalition.
The overriding concern of the Friends of Syria is who will be at the table for the January 22 co-sponsored Geneva II conference on the conflict and whether they will be able to speak authoritatively for the armed opposition. Any hope of success requires that the Islamic Front, or at least part of it, join the National Coalition at the negotiating table. The statement reiterates the opposition’s most important demand, on which both Islamists and secularists are agreed:
We reaffirmed that the aim of Geneva II was to implement a negotiated solution on the basis of the Geneva communiqué, by establishing a Transitional Governing Body with full executive powers agreed by mutual consent. This is the only way to end the conflict. Assad will have no role in Syria, as his regime is the main source of terror and extremism in Syria.
But the Friends of Syria rightly leave the door open to Islamist participation in Geneva, so long as they operate under the political authority of the National Coalition: Read more
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We are Kim’s kin too
I can’t even pretend to know something about North Korea, but it seems to me The Daily Beast has it right: rather than being a sign of strength, Kim Jong Un’s purge and execution of his uncle reflects weakness and foreshadows instability. The military is coming out on top, regime cadres will be running scared and Pyongyang will become more isolated. Uncle Jang Song Thaek was a key liaison with the Chinese, which had been encouraging economic opening and discouraging nuclear adventurism.
This is a difficult situation for the rest of the world. North Korea is a threat to regional stability either way: Kim may gain full command and brandish nuclear weapons against his neighbors (and Washington, though no one thinks he has the capability to target the continental United States), hoping to be paid off in fuel and food. The US has done that several times, but President Obama has sworn off the practice. Or North Korea might collapse, sending refugees into China and the South and leaving behind nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction in the hands of who knows who. Read more
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