Peace picks, January 13-17

A bit late, but as good as ever:

1. Battlefield Earth: Reassessing U.S. Responses to Terrorist Threats

Monday, January 13 | 12:15 – 1:45pm

New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW Suite 400

REGISTER TO ATTEND

In 2001, the U.S. Congress authorized the president to use “all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons.” This Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) set no limits on time, location, or target.

In just the last 12 months, the AUMF was invoked in support of the war in Afghanistan, but also unconventional operations in Pakistan, Yemen, Libya, Somalia and possibly elsewhere — operations such as targeted killings using drones, raids and captures by U.S. Special Forces, and, in all probability, cyber warfare.

As Heather Hurlburt writes in “Battlefield Earth” in Democracy: A Journal of Ideas’ Winter 2014 issue, out this month: “public debate over the use of force in Syria and the revelations concerning National Security Agency surveillance suggest that Americans are increasingly uncomfortable with actions being undertaken in their name. President Obama appeared to acknowledge this reality in May [2013] when he said he looked forward ‘to engaging Congress and the American people in efforts to refine, and ultimately repeal, the AUMF’s mandate.’”

With combat in Afghanistan winding down at the end of the year, does the AUMF continue to authorize force against any terror suspect linked to al-Qaeda, anywhere? Will Congress or the Administration move to “refine” or “repeal” it, and if so, how?

Join the New America Foundation’s National Security Program and Democracy for a panel discussion assessing the politics, legal alternatives, and policy implications of a 13-year-old piece of legislation that makes the planet an open-ended battlefield.

2. America vs. Iran: Competing Strategies in a Changing Middle East

Monday, January 13 | 2:30-4pm

AEI, Twelfth Floor; 1150 Seventeenth Street NW

*Online registration for this event is now closed. Walk-in registrations will be accepted.

The future of the Middle East hangs in the balance between Iran and the US. Iran has crafted its soft- and hard-power strategies to not only expand its power and influence in the Levant and Persian Gulf, but also limit American aims. How has the US responded to Iran’s competing ambitions?

Following the interim nuclear deal with Iran, AEI will host an event to answer this question and to discuss which country will have the most influence in the Middle East, what direction new governments will take, and how changing regional dynamics will impact US national security. This event will coincide with the release of a new AEI report analyzing US soft-power strategies in the region and advocating for the restructuring of US foreign assistance to better check the advance of the Islamic Republic.

If you are unable to attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page. Full video will be posted within 24 hours.

Agenda
2:15 PM – Registration

2:30 PM – Panelists
Ambassador Michael Gfoeller (ret.), Independent Consultant on Foreign Affairs and International Security
Frederick W. Kagan, AEI
J. Matthew McInnis, AEI
Moderator: Danielle Pletka, AEI

4:00 PM – Adjournment

3. Book Launch: Sectarian Politics in the Gulf

Tuesday, January 14 | 12 – 1:45 pm

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

The spillover of Syria’s war into Lebanon and Iraq, combined with the widening involvement of Iran and Saudi Arabia, has spawned dire predictions of sectarian conflict engulfing the entire Middle East. But Shia-Sunni tensions are only one layer of a multidimensional conflict, often masking deeper political and economic dynamics.

Carnegie’s Frederic Wehrey will discuss these dynamics at length, providing insights from his new book, Sectarian Politics in the Gulf: From the Iraq War to the Arab Uprisings (Columbia University Press, 2013), named one of the best Middle East books of 2013 by Foreign Policy. George Washington University’s Marc Lynch will moderate.

Frederic Wehrey is a senior associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program focusing on North Africa and the Persian Gulf.

Marc Lynch is a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. He is also director of both the Institute for Middle East Studies and the Middle East Studies Program.

4. Counterinsurgency in Crisis: Lessons from Afghanistan and Strategic Options for the Future

Wednesday, January 15 | 4:30 – 6pm

National Defense University, Fort Lelsey J. McNair College of International Security Affairs Lincoln Hall Auditorium, Room 2315
300 5^th Ave #62, Fort Lesley J. McNair

REGISTER by January 14 to attend

In this book launch and panel discussion, Robert Egnell (Georgetown), David H. Ucko (NDU), David Maxwell (Georgetown) and Frank Hoffman (NDU) discuss the crisis of counterinsurgency coming out of Afghanistan and the options and constraints affecting future interventions.

The discussion is based around the book Counterinsurgency in Crisis: Britain and the Challenges of Modern Warfare, by David H. Ucko and Robert Egnell (Columbia, 2013).

5. Turkey at the Nexus of Corruption & Construction? Views from Ankara and Washington DC

Wednesday, January 15 | 6:15 – 8pm

Wardman Marriott Hotel, Taft Room; 2660 Woodley Rd NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

Join the Turkey Policy Center (TPC) at the National Academy of Science’s 93^rd Annual “Transportation Research Board Conference,” set to attract 12,000 attendees. Light food and drink will be provided. Experts from Ankara, Istanbul, and Washington DC will be on hand to discuss these timely issues.

Speakers:
6:15-6:30pm = Refreshments and Check-in
6:30-6:45pm = Turkish Policy Center’s Opening Remarks
6:45-7:00pm = Dr. Umit Ozcan (Turkish Chamber of Architects and Engineers)’s Opening Video presentation
7:00-7:10pm = Ms. Arzu Tekin (EMBARQ Türkiye)’s Opening Remarks
7:10-7:20pm = Mr. Robert Millar (Smart Growth America)’s Opening Remarks
7:20-7:30pm = Mr. Scott Kratz (11^th Street Bridge Park)’s Opening Remarks
7:30-7:40pm = Ms. Anita Hairston (PolicyLink)’s Opening Remarks & A

Discussion Questions:
– What initiatives can be taken to increase public participation, transparency, and checks and balances in relation to the government’s role in these fields?
– In Turkey, is a freedom of information act necessary for public access to reports, data, and census statistics for open and transparent decision making?
– What are some best/worst practices that the city of Washington DC can share with Turkish cities and vice versa?
– How have Ankara’s policies impacted urban development projects throughout Turkey?
– How can marginalized and disenfranchised groups be included into the planning process?
– How can dissenting voices to new urban developments (from citizen action groups, nonprofits, and professional organizations) present the problems and possibilities they see to decision makers with a specific agenda?

6. Pakistan’s Strategic Culture and Organizational Behavior: Implications for Counterterrorism and Nuclear Weapons Development

Thursday, January 16 | 9 – 10:30am

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts- Ave. NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

Pakistan is variously described as the world’s most dangerous place and the state with the fastest growing nuclear program. But such characterizations obscure the drivers of Pakistan’s approaches to its internal and external security challenges. These drivers include Pakistan’s strategic culture and specific organizational features of its national command authority.

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace will host two Pakistani scholars, both currently serving as visiting fellows at the Cooperative Monitoring Center at Sandia National Laboratories, for a discussion of how Pakistan’s strategic culture and organizational behavior impact its approach to counterterrorism and nuclear weapons development. Toby Dalton will moderate.

Mansoor Ahmed is a lecturer in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad. Previously, he served in the Pakistan Audit and Accounts Service as a civil servant. He was also a research assistant to Feroz Hassan Khan on the book Eating Grass: The Making of the Pakistani Bomb (Stanford University Press, 2012).

Muhammad Tehsin is a tenure-track assistant professor in the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad. His work seeks to explore the interconnectedness of Iranian nuclear research, Afghan-Pakistani stability, and U.S. security.

Toby Dalton is the deputy director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. An expert on nonproliferation and nuclear energy, his research focuses on cooperative nuclear security initiatives and the management of nuclear challenges in South Asia and East Asia.

7. Assessing Warsaw Pact Military Forces: The Role of the CIA Clandestine Reporting

Thursday, January 16 | 10am – 12pm

Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW

‘CIA Analysis of  Warsaw Pact Military Forces: The Importance of Clandestine Reporting’ examines the role of intelligence derived from clandestine human sources in the Central Intelligence Agency’s analyses of Warsaw Pact military capabilities for war in Europe from 1955 to 1985.  The intelligence was provided to US policymakers and military planners and used to assess the political and military balance in Central Europe between the Warsaw Pact and NATO during the Cold War. The speakers, who were analysts of Soviet military affairs during much of the period, were selected by the CIA to mine its archives for relevant material, previously highly classified, and to provide the documents in coherent form for their study and for public release. The release features a large collection of internal Warsaw Pact classified documents obtained clandestinely during the period and translated and disseminated to senior policymakers by CIA.

Joan Bird will provide a brief overview of the released CIA documents, while John Bird will engage in an in-depth review of the substance of CIA analyses of Warsaw Pact Forces.

Mark Kramer, director of the Cold War Studies Program at Harvard University, and Barry Watts, Adjunct Professor, Center for Security Studies, Georgetown University, and a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, will join the panel as commentators. A. Ross Johnson, Senior Scholar at the Wilson Center, will chair the event.

This meeting is a sequel to an April 5, 2011, Wilson Center event, ‘Warsaw Pact: Wartime Statutes—Instruments of Soviet Control,’ which focused on the mechanisms of Soviet control over its Warsaw Pact allies, based on an earlier CIA release of Warsaw Pact documents also obtained clandestinely.

Speakers:
A. Ross Johnson, Research Fellow, Hoover Institution; Adviser to the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Project, Hoover Archives; former Director, Radio Free Europe
Mark Kramer, Director, Cold War Studies, Harvard University
Joan Bird, CIA Analyst (Retired)
John Bird, CIA Analyst (Retired)
Barry Watts, Adjunct Professor, Center for Security Studies, Georgetown University, and a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments

To confirm time and place, contact Maria-Stella Gatzoulis on the day of the event: tel. (202) 691-4188.

8. Benefit or Burden? The Future of US Tactical Nuclear Weapons

Thursday, January 16 | 1 – 2:30pm

Stimson Center, Rayburn House Office Building, RHOB 2456

REGISTER TO ATTEND

After years of contentious debate within NATO about the presence of American nuclear weapons in Europe, the United States faces a critical decision about whether to spend billions of increasingly scarce defense dollars on the upgrades needed to keep these weapons in service.

Join former Air Force Chief of Staff Norton Schwartz and former Ambassador to Germany Richard Burt as they discuss the logic for and the military and diplomatic utility of these weapons and explain why they joined 15 other distinguished defense thinkers on the Peterson Defense Advisory Committee in calling for reductions in tactical nuclear weapons.

Drawing on the Committee’s recent report, Strategic Agility, this event will bring a wealth of national security expertise to offer a clear-eyed perspective on how policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic should approach decisions about US tactical nuclear weapons.

Opening:
Representative Jim Cooper, Ranking Member,
Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee

Speakers:
General Norton Schwartz, former Chief of Staff, US Air Force

Ambassador Richard Burt, former US Ambassador to Germany

Moderated by: 
Barry Blechman, Chairman of the Peterson Defense Advisory Committee

Food and refreshments will be provided.

9. Beyond the State: Turkey’s Political Crisis and Challenges to Democracy

Friday, January 17 | 10 – 11:30am

Emerging Democracies Institute; 1155 F St NW, Suite 1050

REGISTER TO ATTEND

In the aftermath of the Gezi Park protests – arguably the largest demonstration in Turkey’s recent history – Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan finds himself amidst one of the most critical battles in his political career, one that could determine the country’s democratic future. As the recent corruption inquiry spreads into a network of prominent businessmen, cabinet members and Turkey’s intelligence service, the political climate is growing alarmingly polarized.

The AKP Government is accusing the Gulen Movement of orchestrating the inquiry and setting up parallel structures within the state bureaucracy, while sabotaging the peace talks with the PKK. For its part, the Gulen Movement is voicing dissatisfaction with Mr. Erdogan’s heavy-handed methods, criticizing him for overstepping his role as the Prime Minister.

This panel will discuss the impact of the present political crisis on Turkey’s democracy, as well as how Turkish civil society will fare as a result of the changing political landscape.

Featuring

Bayram Balci
Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Ulas Doga Eralp
Lecturer, International Peace and Conflict Resolution Program, American University’s School of International Service

Joshua D. Hendrick
Assistant Professor, Sociology and Global Studies, Loyola University Maryland;
author of the book: Gülen: The Ambiguous Politics of Market Islam in Turkey and the World

Richard Kraemer
Senior Program Officer, National Endowment for Democracy 

moderated by
Reuf Bajrovic
President, Emerging Democracies Institute