Obama will need to decide

My piece on the Egyptian constitutional referendum was published on Al Jazeera America yesterday.  Bottom line:  the 98% “yes” vote was real, but just as real was government intimidation of those who might have voted no, a boycott by the Muslim Brotherhood and some more secularist political forces, and “couch party” indifference.  Still, about twice as many voters approved this constitution as the one President Morsi put before the voters in June 2012, when turnout was lower and “no” voting higher.

The sincerity and enthusiasm of the “yes” voters should not be doubted.  Judging from my admittedly brief conversations with them while observing the referendum for Democracy International, they had no interest in the substance of the constitution but were anxious to vote for stability and an improved economy.   The “revolution” has acquired a bad name.  It stands for disorder and strife.  Many Egyptians want to restore law and order so that they can return to earning a living, albeit a paltry one for most of the population.

The “yes” voters were also enthusiastic about the Egyptian army and General Sisi in particular.  In the land of the pharaohs, leaders are deified.  Sisi is more than a general or politician to his fans.  He is the epitome of all that is good and clean in an Egypt that has seen a lot of nastiness and dirt.  His picture and name are proudly displayed and chanted at international election observers, apparently in an effort to impress them with his support and send a message back to Washington.

The message received here is mixed.  The new constitution is approved, but the context in which the voting took place was far from free and fair.  I might hope that the successful referendum would encourage General Sisi to allow far freer and fairer presidential and parliamentary elections this spring.  But the filing of charges and jailing of his secular non-violent opponents suggests that won’t happen.  Sisi rightly worries that they may make common cause with the Muslim Brotherhood, presenting him with a real challenge in the parliamentary (less likely the presidential) election.  So he tars them with the same brush:  support for terrorism, spying and foreign funding, all anathema to most Egyptians.  The terrorist attacks in Cairo yesterday will push Sisi towards an even more draconian crackdown, in particular on the Muslim Brotherhood.

Nathan J. Brown’s response to the charges against scholar Emad Shahin merits quoting:

I would sooner believe that Vice President Biden is a member of the Symbionese Liberation Army than I would give credence to the charges against Emad.

The judicial attacks on the independent opposition in Egypt as well as on peaceful Brotherhood protests put the US government in a difficult position.  It wants to stay on good terms and press General Sisi for more inclusion and openness.  But there comes a point–approaching soon–when it will have to assess whether Egypt is evolving in a democratic direction or restoring military autocracy.  If the latter, some in Congress may well insist on blocking that part of the military assistance not already frozen.  Others will praise Sisi and resist.  President Obama will need to decide.