Hammer out danger

What has Pete Seeger, who died yesterday, got to do with Egypt?

Many Egyptians are genuinely enthusiastic about Field Marshall Sisi’s impending run for the presidency.  They hope he will bring stability to a country in its third year of revolutionary upheaval.  They want the economy to recover and their families to return to a more normal existence.

Rarely are international commenters more unanimous in their opposing views:  Sisi, the finest intellects think, has little chance of providing the stability Egyptians crave unless he changes course and enables a far more inclusive polity.  The current crackdowns on both the Muslim Brothers, who are many, and Sisi’s secularist opponents, who are few, will serve only to drive Egypt further into autocracy and an eventual return to turmoil.

Who is right?  The Egyptians in the street who proudly point to airbrushed pictures of the Field Marshall?  Or the international intellectuals, none of whom have ever run a country?

My heart is with the Egyptians.  They should get what they want.  It is not for me or any non-Egyptian to choose who leads Egypt, or to tell Egyptians what system they should install to gain their aspirations.  If they want to restore the military autocracy, or something akin to it with a few more power centers, why should I object?  Each to his own.

My mind, not surprisingly, is with the intellectuals.  Not all Egyptians want Sisi.  There is a significant number, albeit likely a minority, who would gladly reinstall President Morsi.  And there is some small percentage of that minority that will use violence against the majority to try to gain its objectives.  Egypt is likely in for a long siege of terrorist attacks, which will serve to justify military and judicial crackdowns, limit foreign investment, and hinder economic and social progress.  What are Egyptians going to do if Sisi fails to deliver?

The real question in Egypt is not Morsi vs Sisi, or Brotherhood vs army.  Egypt needs to agree on the rules of the game, which can’t change every few months based on the numbers of people mobilized in the street.  The French revolution proceeded that way and we know where that ended up.  Tunisia this week approved its draft constitution after more than a year of intense debate.  Yemen has completed its national dialogue.  Libya is entering on one.

Serious, in-depth discussion is required in Egypt:  what does it mean to be an Egyptian?  What role will religion play in an Arab country that has a significant non-Muslim minority?  What is expected of the state?  What is expected of citizens?  How will power be distributed?  How wide will the spectrum of political forces be?  How will the rules for political competition read?

Sisi, to be remembered as someone who helped establish a stable and prosperous Egyptian state, needs to ignore the adulation he is hearing.  Rather than savor his guaranteed victory in a presidential election this spring, he needs to open a dialogue with the broadest possible spectrum of the Egyptian public.  This should begin with the parliamentary elections but extend beyond to serious consideration of reforming the constitution, prepared behind closed doors, that was just approved this month.

The odds of his embarking on such a course are low.  He is much more likely to enjoy a year or two of adulation, while his relatives and friends begin to suck the marrow from Egypt’s bones.  Egyptians may then take to the street again, starting the cycle once again.

What has Pete Seeger, who died yesterday, got to do with Egypt?  He sang what Egyptians need to hear: