Citizens are the place to start

My friends are in a tizzy about Bosnia.  Ed Joseph wants urgent international action.  So do Bodo Weber and Kurt Bassuener.  All fear that Bosnia’s social unrest in recent days may degenerate into ethnic conflict.  They want the United States and the European Union to step in with clear ideas for reform and strict conditionality to force their adoption.

I am a bit more cautious.  I agree entirely with Bodo and Kurt that the current situation is in part the result of bankrupt and ineffective EU policies.  I agree with them and Ed that a different approach is required, including stronger American diplomatic engagement and strengthening of Europe’s military presence.  But I am suspicious of the notion that the right formula to untie the Bosnian knot can be devised in Washington and Brussels.  We tried that at Dayton.  It worked to end the war, but not to make Bosnia a functional state.

We need to hear more from the Bosnians, who are busily organizing themselves into plenums that will formulate grassroots demands for reform.  Tim Judah describes what is going on:

So far protesters have been resolutely anti-nationalist. Now something extraordinary is happening. Led by Tuzla, so-called “plenums” of fed-up citizens, unemployed workers and intellectuals are springing up to make political demands. On February 11th elected members of Tuzla’s cantonal assembly met its plenum to discuss the idea of a government of non-party experts. In the ethnically divided city of Mostar, Croats and Bosniaks are also working together in a plenum.

If the plenums take root, if new leaders emerge and if they focus on realistic demands, something might really change. Over the past few years leaders in Bosnia have endlessly debated minor constitutional tweaks while managing to avoid debate about economic and social reforms.

The plenums are a good thing.  I would not want Brussels and Washington to short circuit the process.  Our diplomats (and thinktankers) would do well to listen to the protesters, as they are urging Bosnian officials to do, before they formulate solutions.

That will not be easy.  Like many social movements, the one in Bosnia is spontaneous, inchoate, and contradictory.  It is going to have a hard time formulating clear objectives and pursuing them on a mutliethnic basis through Bosnia’s complex political process, which favors ethnic nationalists.  The existing political parties will have an enormous organizational and financial advantage and will try desperately to hijack the discontent for their own purposes.

So if I were in the US government, I’d yes be meeting with the Europeans to figure out a new international policy for Bosnia, one that utilizes the leverage Washington and Brussels possess to maximum advantage.  But I would also be trying to ensure that Bosnian voices aren’t silenced, hijacked, co-opted or simply ignored.  This will require our diplomats to use all the instruments at their disposal to protect and nurture a movement that likely resents American and European interference in Bosnia as much as it dislikes the country’s current leadership.  Not an trivial task.

The carrot of eventual EU membership has not proven sufficient in Bosnia.  But it would be a mistake not to realize it is still the best, if not the freshest, carrot on offer. The EU has to get better at stating clearly how and when the Bosnians need to act in order to get a bite.  It is not sufficient to wait ad infinitum for the Bosnians to make their constitution conform to the European Court of Human Rights decision that declared its formula for electing the collective presidency a violation of the country’s commitment to a European convention.  Nor is it right to allow the Bosnians to spend years thinking up formulas that meet the letter but not the spirit of the Court’s decision.

Bosnians themselves can determine the fate of the country.  Its citizens have remained remarkably passive for far too long.  The internationals need to get their own act together, but they also need to listen to what Bosnians want.  I imagine we’ll be surprised, and maybe horrified, by some of what they say.  But if you want to build a Bosnia based on citizenship, the place to start is with the citizens.