Things are not going well in many parts of the world:
For the benefit of my Balkans readers, I’ll add:
Bosnia’s citizens are demanding reforms, but its political leaders are trying to make the complaints ethnic and the international community is divided on how to respond.
Ian Bremmer would say this list reflects the G-zero world, that is a world in which the United States is no longer playing a hegemonic role and keeping order.
That is true, but it is not the whole truth. President Obama will be in Mexico today, for a meeting with its president and the prime minister of Canada. They are preparing for the two regional trade negotiations: one across the Pacific and one across the Atlantic. This, too, is an important part of today’s reality: trade and investment matter more than ever before. America, in order to exert its power, needs to restore its economic strength. President Obama is not mistaken in believing that he needs to triage the world’s problems and conserve his efforts for the most important of them.
So which are the most important? Iran’s nuclear program is clearly his number one priority. Israel/Palestine is probably number two.
I’d put Syria at number three. Why? Because continuation of the war will increase the risks to Lebanon and Iraq (and eventually also Jordan and Turkey) as well as strengthen extremists throughout the Arab world. President Obama doesn’t want to get more deeply involved in Syria, for fear of getting bogged down there. It will take a generation or more to rebuild the Syrian state, as my very knowledgeable and well-informed breakfast companion told me this morning.
What is to be done in Syria? I’ve got a piece written on options that I wouldn’t want to foreshadow too explicitly, but suffice it to say that there are still lots of them. We have not exhausted either the diplomatic or the military tools available. If the president wants to do something, he can. Failure to act more forcefully will help Russia. It will also make us miss the opportunity to weaken Iran and to bolster America’s relations with the Gulf.
America is not good at walking and chewing gum at the same time. But it needs to learn how.
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