Day: February 26, 2014
Syria options
Reuters published this piece this morning:
On Saturday the United Nations Security Council demanded that Syria’s government and its armed opponents end attacks on civilians, allow the delivery of humanitarian aid across borders and battle lines, and protect minorities. The Security Council also called for the lifting of sieges against civilians and said that it would take additional measures if the two parties did not comply.
Even if fully implemented, this welcome push on humanitarian issues will not end the violence in Syria, or resolve a conflict that has left over 120,000 people dead and one-third of the population displaced. More action is needed if a political solution is to be found and a serious peace process initiated. The American people won’t support deployment of U.S. troops. Russia will veto any new U.N. Security Council resolution with teeth. But Washington should consider other diplomatic, assistance, financial and military options.
To read more, you’ll have to go to Reuters.
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The global chessboard
Barack Obama may not think he is playing on “some global chessboard,” but it is pretty clear Vladimir Putin does. The contest is no longer an ideological one between the “free world” and Communism. It is a pragmatic one between democracy and authoritarianism. Which one can satisfy stakeholders sufficiently to survive the long run? There is nothing inevitable about the triumph of democracy, though associated with wise economic management it is difficult to beat on the merits.
Authoritarians tend to abuse their political power for economic benefit. There can be no clearer illustration of this phenomenon than erstwhile Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, whose palatial abode and documented graft are now open for all to see, even if the man himself has disappeared. It isn’t pretty. He seems to have lost even Russia’s backing, which has now been reduced from a $15 billion loan to a few fulminations from Prime Minister Medvedev.
If Moscow is going to act against the parliamentary takeover that Ukraine has witnessed, it won’t be to put Yanukovich back on his gold-plated toilet seat but rather to seize control of Crimea and perhaps a few provinces of eastern Ukraine. The precedents are clear: Trans-Dniester in Moldova as well as South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia host Russian troops, supposedly to protect them from their Russian-speaking inhabitants from the depredations of the authorities elected to serve in their capitals. Moscow could easily trump up that scenario in Crimea, where most of the population is Russian-speaking and loyal to Moscow rather than Kiev, which has been their capital only since 1954. Read more
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