Peace Picks March 3 –7

The weather prediction suggests a good deal of this may not happen, especially Monday and Tuesday, but here are our picks for DC events if that turns out to be a false alarm:

1. Growing Opposition to President Hassan Rouhani: Is the Honeymoon Ending?

Monday, March 3 | 9:30am – 11am

12^th Floor, The Stimson Center; 1111 19th Street NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is seeing escalating public criticism from Iran’s conservative factions, once seemingly stifled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Will Rouhani’s presidency follow in the footsteps of the Mohammad Khatami era?

The Stimson Center and the Heinrich Boll Foundation North America invite you to join us for a discussion on the shifting internal political dynamics in Iran and how these events will shape the future of Iran’s relations with the West.

Panelists:
Mohammad Ayatollah Tabaar, Assistant Professor, Texas A&M University

Mehdi Arabshahi, Former President of the Office for Consolidating Unity, the largest student union for democracy and human rights in Iran

Moderator:
Geneive Abdo, Fellow, Stimson’s Middle East Program

2. How Might U.S. Defense Policy Change in the Years Ahead?

Monday, March 3| 10:30am – 11:30am

Faulk Auditorium, Brookings Institution; 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

The United States will face a number of strategic defense policy issues in the near future. Is large-scale counterinsurgency really outdated and what does that mean for the future of the Army? Can the United States stay out of the Syrian civil war indefinitely? How worried should we be about China’s rise, and will Air-Sea Battle continue to be the answer to modernization strategy vis-à-vis China and perhaps others? And what would be the likely outcome should the U.S. attack Iran’s nuclear program?

Additionally, uncertainties about the future of the defense budget remain. Is sequestration likely to return in 2016, or might further action soften the projected cuts? How likely is it that presidential electoral politics that year, combined with possible world events, might change things in either direction? How should we understand the various forces and dynamics within Congress on this subject?

On March 3, the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence at Brookings and the American Enterprise Institute will host a discussion on future issues in U.S. defense strategy and spending. Joining in the discussion will be Representative Mac Thornberry (R-Tex.) and Representative Rick Larsen (D-WA), both of whom are members of the House Armed Services Committee and are two of the leading voices on defense strategy and spending on Capitol Hill. Brookings Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon, director of research for Foreign Policy, and American Enterprise Institute Resident Fellow Mackenzie Eaglen will moderate the discussion.

Moderators:
Michael E. O’Hanlon
Director of Research, Foreign Policy
Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence

Mackenzie Eaglen
Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute

Featured Speakers:
The Honorable Mac Thornberry (R-Tex.)
Vice Chairman, Armed Services Committee, U.S. House of Representatives

The Honorable Rick Larsen (D-WA)
U.S. House of Representatives

3. Grounding Political Change in Egypt: The Public Interest, Local Roots of Democracy, and the Right to the City

Monday, March 3 | 12pm – 2pm

SIS Building, Abramson Family Founders Room, American University; 4400 Massachusetts Ave NW

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While national electoral politics and the struggles between state institutions and protesters have been dominating headlines from Egypt, Egyptian citizens have been organizing to address chronic problems in their communities. Despite overwhelming obstacles, these local initiatives are challenging longstanding urban governance and planning norms in Egypt and are attempting to claim their right to enjoy liveable cities and communities.

Please join TADAMUN: The Cairo Urban Solidarity Initiative’s project leaders to discuss some of these initiatives as well as the larger, pressing questions about local government reform, decentralization, the prospects of democracy in Egypt, the outlook of urban development, and economic policies that may help create more equitable, inclusive communities in Egypt.

SPEAKERS:
Diane Singerman
Associate Professor in the Department of Government, School of Public Affairs at American University

Kareem Ibrahim
Director of Takween Integrated Community Development based in Cairo, Egypt

Junaid Ahmad
Director of Sustainable Development, MENA Region of the World Bank

Adel Iskandar
Fellow at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, Georgetown University
4. India’s Post-Election Economic Outlook

Tuesday, March 4 | 9:30 – 10:30am

Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

In April, Indians will head to the polls to elect their next government. The new government’s economic program, including its first budget due in July, will be largely defined by the precise coalition that wins the elections. However, India’s incoming government will assume office saddled with thorny economic issues that range from large deficits and high inflation, to sputtering economic growth. Although there is evidence India’s economy may be bottoming out, the global economic environment remains volatile.

Noted economist and Carnegie Nonresident Senior Associate Ila Patnaik will present a detailed post-election economic outlook for India. Patnaik will discuss India’s macroeconomic scenarios, prospects for financial sector reform, and the options for rejuvenating India’s collapsed investment cycle. Milan Vaishnav will moderate.

SPEAKERS:
Ila Patnaik, nonresident senior associate in Carnegie’s South Asia Program and professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi

Milan Vaishnav, associate in Carnegie’s South Asia Program

5. Democratic Challenges in the Sahel: Security and Regional Cooperation

Tuesday, March 4 | 10am – 12pm

National Endowment for Democracy; 1025 F St NW, Suite 800

Over the past 24 months, the Sahel has often made headlines because of the series of humanitarian, political, military and security crises it has encountered simultaneously. The fall of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 as well as the ensuing crises in Mali have been a wakeup call to most Sahel observers and democracy practitioners. The connection between both events underscored the structural fragility of the Sahel as a distressing domino effect was set in motion.

While the international community and Sahelian states continue to uncover fissures, they are responding forcefully to these new challenges. It is in this context that the Sahel Strategy Forum, a civil society-focused initiative led by the National Endowment for Democracy, in partnership with The Bridges Institute, is being launched.

There will be a live webcast of the event here

SPEAKERS
Hon. Mohamed Bazoum
Niger Minister of Foreign Affairs 

Dr. Raymond Gilpin
Dean, African Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS)

Moderated by:
Dr. Sulayman Nyang
Howard University
6. Rouhani’s Iran

Tuesday, March 4 | 12 – 2pm

Lindner Family Commons, Room 602, Elliott School of International Affairs (George Washington University); 1957 E Street Northwest

REGISTER TO ATTEND

Hassan Rouhani’s presidency, still in its early days, has raised many questions about the future of Iranian political affairs, both domestic and foreign. Join POMEPS for a reflection on developments during Rouhani’s first seven months in office and what they mean moving forward for Iran and the international community.

SPEAKERS
Arang Keshavarzian – New York University

Norma Claire Moruzzi  – University of Illinois at Chicago

Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar – Texas A&M University

Moderated by:
Marc Lynch – George Washington University 

* A light lunch will be provided *

7. Tunisia’s Next Chapter: The Nexus Between Politics, Economy, and Security

Tuesday, March 4 | 12pm

12^th Floor, Atlantic Council; 1030 15^th St NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

After a period of deepening polarization marred by high-level assassinations, Tunisians ultimately succeeded in negotiating a way forward and keeping the transition on track, culminating in the milestone adoption of the Arab world’s most progressive constitution. Tunisia, however, still faces many hurdles as the country embarks upon new elections amid continued economic stagnation and security challenges. The Tunisia Working Group, a new Atlantic Council initiative to help shape the discourse in Washington in supporting a successful transition in Tunisia, brings together prominent Tunisian voices to share perspectives on what comes next.

Deputy Chief of Mission Kais Darragi will provide insight into the Tunisian government’s priorities for bolstering relations with the United States. Following opening remarks, the panelists will explore Tunisia’s political and economic trajectories in light of mounting security concerns. Radwan Masmoudi will describe key political processes since the adoption of the constitution and challenges to advancing the transition within the current security environment. Mariem Malouche will discuss the economic state of Tunisia, the country’s relationship with international financial institutions, and what role the international community can play in promoting economic development. Haykel Ben Mahfoudh, a senior advisor on security sector reform, will address Tunisia’s security challenges and their impact on the country’s transition.

Opening remarks:
Kais Darragi
Deputy Chief of Mission
Embassy of Tunisia to the United States

A discussion with
Radwan Masmoudi
President, Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy

Mariem Malouche
Founding Member, Tunisian American Young Professionals

Haykel Ben Mahfoudh (via videoconference)
Professor, University of Carthage

Moderated by
Mohsin Khan and Karim Mezran
Senior Fellows, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council

Please use the West Tower elevators when you arrive.

8. Japan’s Role in a Globalized World: The US-Japan Alliance and Regional Partnerships

Tuesday, March 4 | 2:30 – 5:40pm

Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW

Please RSVP with Sam Mun at mun@project2049.net

2014 holds important prospects for the US-Japan alliance and Japan’s role in the Asia-Pacific. As the result of the last “two-plus-two” meeting from October 2013, the US and Japan are currently working on revising the 1997 Guidelines for US-Japan Joint Cooperation, said to be finished by the end of 2014. China’s ongoing military modernization efforts, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, and ongoing regional territorial disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands pose as important regional threats to Japanese forces. Regionally, Japan struggles to better relations with South Korea, while it increases economic and security ties with Southeast Asia and India. In light of these developments, the Project 2049 Institute is hosting this conference to facilitate greater understanding of Japan’s foreign policy, clarify Japan’s future challenges and objectives, and outline recommendations to promote Japan’s global and regional engagements. Discussion topics include US policy objectives for the alliance, Japan’s security framework, Japan’s role in the global force posture, and regional relations between Japan and South Korea, Southeast Asia, and India, respectively.

2:30 – 3 PM: Opening Remarks
Ambassador Richard Armitage
Former Deputy Secretary of State

3:05 – 4:20 PM: Panel I The US-Japan Alliance: Challenges and Opportunities
Moderator:
Robert Zarate
Policy Director, Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI)

Dr. Amy Searight
Principal Director for East Asia, Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD)

Tetsuo Kotani
Research Fellow, The Japan Institute for International Affairs (JIIA)

Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn
Political Scientist, RAND

4:25 – 5:40 PM: Panel II Progress and Obstacles in Japan’s Regional Engagement
Moderator:
Elbridge Colby
Fellow, Center for a New American Security (CNAS)

Dr. Jennifer Lind
Associate Professor, Dartmouth College

Dr. Satu Limaye
Director, East-West Center; Senior Advisor, Center for Naval Analyses (CNA)

Catherine Lea
Research Scientist, Center for Naval Analyses (CNA)

9. Iran’s Nuclear Deal: The Road Ahead

Wednesday, March 5 | 12pm – 1pm

5th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

SPEAKERS
Michael Adler
Public Policy Scholar, Former Correspondent in Vienna for Agence France-Presse News Agency

Reza Marashi
Research Director, National Iranian American Council

10. Zooming in on Syria: Adapting US Policy to Local Realities

Wednesday, March 5 | 12pm

12^th Floor, Atlantic Council; 1030 15^th St NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

As the conflict in Syria enters its fourth year, a negotiated political transition between the regime and the opposition is highly unlikely, even as the United States and Western allies continue to emphasize a diplomatic solution. Lack of a nuanced understanding of the Syrian opposition, most importantly by US policy makers, is partly to blame.

In a new Atlantic Council issue brief, “Zooming in on Syria: Adapting US Policy to Local Realities,” Hariri Center fellow Faysal Itani and co-author Nathaniel Rosenblatt argue that foreign actors contributed to worsening divisions within the opposition and strengthening radical sectarian militias, thus spoiling efforts to overthrow the regime. The authors contend that the United States’ current approach will neither yield a settlement nor stop the conflict’s growing carnage and impact on the region. Analyzing the conflict at the micro-level, the authors assert that opposition forces are too fragmented, weak, or radical to negotiate a political settlement with the regime. Please join the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for a discussion of the challenges and opportunities facing the opposition, and how its allies can help address them in pursuit of political transition in Syria.

SPEAKERS
Faysal Itani
Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council

Nathaniel Rosenblatt
Senior Analyst, Caerus Associates

Moderated by
Frederic C. Hof
Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
11. Policies for the Growing Refugee Crisis in the Levant

Wednesday, March 5 | 12 – 3:30pm

Large Conference Room, Aspen Institute; One Dupont Circle NW

According to UNHCR, the number of Syrian refugees has surpassed 2 million, with Lebanon receiving the lion’s share, followed by Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq. The continual influx of refugees has begun to burden neighboring regions’ social and sectarian fabric. If left unchecked, the refugee crisis could deplete neighboring countries’ resources and further imperil stability in the country.

Even more threatening than the regional influx is the internal displacement of a quarter of the Syrian population. An estimated 6.8 million people are in dire need of assistance, but with no resolution to the military conflict, tens of thousands of civilians are trapped in areas with no access to food, clean water, medical care, and shelter.

Government and UN officials and experts on forced migration and humanitarian relief will discuss the context and implications of the growing refugee crisis. The objective will be to suggest, in consideration of regional politics and demographics, several domestic and international policy responses aimed at managing and mitigating the destabilizing effects of the growing refugee population.

SPEAKERS
David Miliband, president and CEO, International Rescue Committee

Dr. Najib Ghadbian, special representative to the United States for the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces

Amb. Namik Tan, ambassador of Turkey to the US

Amb. Alia Hatoug Bouran, ambassador of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to the US

Dr. Nabeel Khoury, senior fellow on the Middle East and national security, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs (Impact on Lebanon)

David Sanger, chief Washington correspondent for The New York Times

Anne Richard, assistant secretary of state for population, refugees and migration

Mark Silverman, deputy head of Washington delegation, International Committee of the Red Cross

Steve Inskeep, host of “Morning Edition,” NPR
12. Constructing the Narratives of Identity and Power: Self-Imagination in a Young Ukrainian Nation

Part of IERES (GW University)’s Petrach Program on Ukraine

Thursday, March 6 | 4 – 5pm

Voesar Conference Room, Suite 412; 1957 E Street NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

Karina V. Korostelina’s new book, Constructing the Narratives of Identity and Power, provides a comprehensive outlook on Ukraine through the views of intellectual and political elites. Based on extensive field work in Ukraine, Korostelina describes the complex process of nation building, revealing seven prevailing conceptual models of Ukraine and five dominant narratives of national identity. Korostelina describes the differences and conflicting elements of the national narratives that constitute the contested arena of nation-building in Ukraine and explains the current violence in the country.

Karina V. Korostelina is associate professor at the School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University, and director of the Program on History, Memory and Conflict. She is a leading expert on identity-based conflicts, peace culture, conflict resolution and peacebuilding. Her recent books include: International Insult: How Offence Contributes to Conflict (forthcoming), History Education in the Formation of Social Identity: Toward a Culture of Peace (2013), Why They Die? (2012), Social Identity and Conflict (2007), and Structure and Dynamics of Social Identity (2003).
 

13. Turkey’s Transformation: Prospects and Limits

Friday, March 7 | 12:30pm

Washington Institute, 1828 L St NW # 1050

Turkey, NATO’s largest Muslim-majority country, has undergone significant changes in the past decade under the ambitious AKP government. In his new book The Rise of Turkey: The Twenty-First Century’s First Muslim Power, Washington Institute fellow Soner Cagaptay offers a guide to the inspiring potential and grave challenges inherent in these changes. From the Kurdish issue to foreign policy, the book argues that Turkey must successfully balance its Muslim identity with its Western overlay in order to become a regional and global power.

To discuss the country’s transformation and future prospects, the Institute is pleased to host a book launch event with Dr. Cagaptay and two former U.S. ambassadors to Turkey, James Jeffrey and Ross Wilson.

A live webcast of the event can be viewed here.

SPEAKERS
Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.

James F. Jeffrey, the Institute’s Philip Solondz Distinguished Visiting Fellow, served as ambassador to Turkey from 2008 to 2010.

Ross Wilson is director of the Atlantic Council’s Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center and a lecturer in international affairs at George Washington University. He served as ambassador to Turkey from 2005 to 2008.