peacefare.net

All deliberate speed, please

UN Secretary General Ban is marking the third anniversary of the Syrian uprising, which by my reckoning is March 15, by appealing to Russia and the US to revive peace talks.  That’s his job, but prospects are not good.

The Asad regime continues to make slow progress on the battlefield.  The opposition continues to insist that he step down to initiate a transition to democracy.  There is no “zone of possible agreement.”  Asad is preparing to conduct what he will call an election this spring to reconfirm his hold on power.  The conditions in regime-controlled areas will not permit the election to be anything like free or fair.  The conditions in liberated and contested areas won’t allow an election to occur at all.  But Asad will claim legitimacy.  Russia will concur.

In the US, consciousness of the horrors occurring in Syria is growing.  The recent reports of the Save the Children and UNICEF boosted the case for humanitarian relief.  The US has already been generous, even to a fault, as it appears to be buying tolerance for the failure to bring about a political resolution of the conflict.  Russia, more committed to realpolitik, continues to arm, finance and provide political support to the regime.  The crisis in Crimea leaves little oxygen in Washington for Syria.  There is an argument for replying to Putin’s moves in Ukraine by strengthening opposition efforts in Syria, but I am not seeing signs that it is winning the day.

Some key members of the Syrian Opposition Coalition (Etilaf) will be in DC next week making the case for more support, including to the more moderate fighters.  What Etilaf needs to do is convince the Obama Administration that vital American interests are at risk in Syria.  The two most striking are the risk of extremism putting down deep roots in Syria and the risk of state collapse, both of which would affect not only Syria but its neighbors, especially Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan.  Perhaps eventually also Turkey and even Israel, whose boundary with Syria in occupied Golan could become hotter than it has been for many years.

Etilaf has not yet convinced Washington that it can be an effective bulwark against these threats.  The Coalition has precious little control over even the relative moderates among the fighters.  It has little to no capacity to counter Jabhat al Nusra or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the former the official al Qaeda franchisee and the latter its Iraq-based competitor.  Etilaf favors preservation of the Syrian state, but with every passing day that becomes less likely.  Nor has Etilaf demonstrated a lot of traction with the ad hoc administrative councils that pop up in liberated areas.

Where Etilaf showed itself to best advantage was at the Geneva 2 talks, where it outmaneuvered the Asad regime and scored lots of good points in favor of a managed transition and against the horrors of what Asad is doing.  There is irony then in Etilaf emphasizing the limits of diplomacy, which is the arena in which it has done best.

That is not however a good reason to revive the talks, which really went nowhere.  Nor can they be expected to, given what is happening on the battlefield.  Until Iran and Russia are convinced that they risk more by continuing to support Asad rather than abandoning him, Tehran and Moscow will provide the edge he needs to continue to gain ground, albeit slowly.  This is a formula for more war, not less.

A couple of weeks ago, the Obama Administration was thought to be looking at new options for Syria.  There is no sign they have emerged from the “interagency” labyrinth.  That’s not surprising.  It took 3.5 years for something meaningful to emerge from the National Security Council in Bosnia, and depending on how you count at least that long in Kosovo.  Only in Afghanistan and in Iraq have such decisions proved quick, mistakenly and disastrously so in Iraq.

Deliberation is wise.  But if it takes too long, vital American interests in blocking extremists and maintaining the states of the Levant may suffer irreparable damage.  Not to mention the harm to Syrians, who deserve better.  All deliberate speed, please.