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Ukraine: civilian instruments fall short, again

The presidential election May 25 will be decisive for Ukraine. The main presidential candidates are Petro Poroshenko, a chocolate magnate with high-level government experience, and Yulia Tymoshenko, a heroine of the Orange Revolution and former prime minister with a reputation for corruption and extreme pragmatism, including cooperation with Vladimir Putin.  Poroshenko is believed to be in the lead.

The outcome of the presidential election that day is not as important as whether the election occurs in the eastern and southern provinces where pro-Russian paramilitaries have taken over government facilities.  Two oblasts (Donetsk and Luhansk) supposedly voted May 11 in referenda on autonomy, but both the opaque (and illegal) process and vague referendum proposition cast doubt on their significance.  A decent election May 25 would confer at least a veneer of legitimacy on the government in Kiev, which was installed after the president fled and parliament took over in February.

The prospects are not good.  A successful election would at least temporarily hinder Russia’s ambitions in the eastern and southern provinces and provide an opportunity for Kiev to negotiate an accommodation with at least some of the political leadership there.  Few doubt that decentralization and strengthening of local and provincial governance is part of the solution in Ukraine.  But getting there from the current tense and polarized standoff between a government in Kiev anxious to assert its authority and Russian-speaking rebels in eastern Ukraine will not be easy.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is supporting a national dialogue process led by former Presidents Kuchma and Kravchuk that had a rough start yesterday.  OSCE has also deployed 230 human rights monitors (with authorization to more than double that number) as well as 100 election monitors, with more on their way.  Russia, which is an OSCE member, could conceivably exploit its presence to try to ensure correct treatment of the Russian speakers in Ukraine and end the current crisis.

I’m not holding my breath for that.  While President Putin has turned down the rhetoric in the last week or so, his objective is all too clearly to make eastern and southern Ukraine come under Moscow’s umbrella, even if they remain formally outside of Russian sovereignty.  He has not moved Russian troops away from the border with Ukraine.  Many of the rebels in Ukraine appear to be getting Russian support and encouragement sub rosa.  Some are Russian officials.  Putin’s maneuvers may be reactions to a rapidly evolving situation, but Russia’s 2013 foreign policy concept makes it clear Ukraine was slated for a key role in reviving Moscow’s influence in the former Soviet states.

European and American sanctions have already done some damage to the Russian stock market, currency and investment flows.  Moscow will hesitate to do anything overt to disrupt the election in order to stave off tightening and broadening of the still finely targeted sanctions.  But so long as it can plausibly deny a hand in any disruption of the May 25 election, it can bank on European hesitation to bite the hand that sends money and natural gas west.

NATO is rightly not prepared to go to war to defend non-member Ukraine.  The best it has been able to do is forward deploy some minimal forces to Poland, the Baltics and other concerned member states to signal determination to protect the Alliance, should it become necessary.  This is one more crisis where military means simply do not fit the bill.  The civilian means required look to be beyond current capabilities.  The number of monitors required in a country with a population of 46 million is easily ten times the number currently authorized.  OSCE is stepping up as best it can, but it will be no surprise if its best falls short.  The lesson here is clear:  we need to strengthen the available civilian instruments, not only in Europe but elsewhere as well.