Day: June 25, 2014
Flipping SecState the bird
It’s been a bad few days for Secretary of State Kerry, on top of many bad weeks. On Sunday, he expressed the hope Egypt would take advantage of a critical moment in its transition to turn towards democracy. Then an Egyptian court popped that bubble with a trumped up verdict in a trumped up trial on trumped up charges against three Al Jazeera journalists. By Tuesday, SecState was pressing Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki and Kurdistan President Barzani to proceed quickly to formation of an inclusive government. By today, Maliki said he had no such intention and Barzani is talking secession, more seriously than ever before.
This comes on top of the failed Middle East (that is, Israeli/Palestinian) peace process and Russian rejection of Ukrainian President Poroshenko’s proposed ceasefire. Not to mention the mess in Syria, where the President’s reluctance to intervene is all to obviously not pleasing to John Kerry. He has said repeatedly that a political settlement depends on changing the military situation on the ground. I won’t even mention the Asia Pacific, where China is again daring its neighbors.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion that things are going badly for the Obama Administration in foreign policy. That’s precisely what the American people have decided, even if they support some of the President’s decisions on what to do and not do.
Daniels Larison and Drezner have been engaged in the why of this puzzle. Larison thinks it is due to the failure of the President to provide the resources needed to achieve his goals. Drezner thinks it is double think on the part of Americans: they want the country in general less engaged abroad (the outcome) but don’t like the specific consequences (the outputs).
I’ll leave the other Daniels to resolve that puzzle. I’m interested in what John Kerry is thinking. His behavior strikes me as out of keeping with past Secretaries of State, who have either been far more cautious in what they say or far more determined to get foreign leaders to salute when they say it. Most days, a lot of the State Department is engaged precisely in trying to line up “yes” from foreign leaders, in advance of a SecState “ask.” Secretaries don’t ask if they are not guaranteed a positive reply.
Kerry seems displeased but not angered when Maliki or Sisi says “no.” His attitude strikes me as more like that of a Senator than a Secretary of State. Senators are used to colleagues disagreeing. They are also used to being taken seriously for what they say, rather than for what they can do. There is always another day to try to win over opponents. Senators state their case but try not to burn bridges.
Hillary Clinton of course was also a senator before she was SecState, but she was notably more cautious in what she said. I don’t recall her ever hinting that she supported arming the Syrian revolutionaries, even though it is now known she did in secret. Kerry has been particularly bold in what he says publicly, but shy in deed, perhaps because there is so little Secretaries of State can actually do on their own authority other than speak. I guess that puts me more in the Larison than the Drezner camp about what is going on.
But whatever the reason, it is not good when other countries flip SecState the bird.
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Kosovo’s Rubik cube
I responded to some questions today from Shpend Limoni, who has published my replies at Gazeta Express. Here is the exchange in English:
1. LDK, AAK and NISMA signed an agreement to form Kosovo’s future government. Do you think that LDK, AAK and NISMA in principle have the right to form a government despite the fact that Kosovo’s Constitutional Court will deal with this issue?
DPS: What I think doesn’t matter if the Court will decide.
2. Are you surprised with a refusal from LDK, AAK and NISMA to cooperate with Hashim Thaçi?
DPS: I was as surprised as anyone else not privy to their thinking prior to the decision.
3. Do you think that internationals will support a government with Ramush Haradinaj as a Prime Minister and Vetëvendosje as a part of it?
DPS: Internationals will be supportive of any Kosovo government formed in accordance with Kosovo’s constitution and laws.
4. How do you see the current role of Vetëvendosje in political scene?
DPS: Vetëvendosje I see as one political force among several. In the past it has advocated things that are inconsistent with Kosovo’s constitution. In that sense it is an anticonstitutional movement. I disagree with its position on a referendum to determine the status of Kosovo, which in my view would destabilize the region.
5. Do you think that Vetëvendosje will be constructive in the context of dialogue with Serbia?
DPS: I really don’t know. It has not always been constructive in the past. But it has shifted its position a bit and might shift more, whether inside or outside government. The responsibilities of governing are different from the responsibilities of opposition.
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