Month: June 2014
Regional ripples from a nuclear deal
As gradual progress is made towards a potential nuclear deal with Iran, many question the implications that this agreement would have for the surrounding region. On Monday, the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted “The Iranian Nuclear Deal and the Impact on its Neighbors” to analyze the regional repercussions of a possible bargain. Abdullah Baabood, Director of the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University, and David and Marina Ottaway, Senior Scholars at the Woodrow Wilson Center, discussed relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and neighboring Iraq, while Bijan Khajehpour, Managing Partner of Atieh International, analyzed the regional economic aspects of a nuclear deal.
The prospect of a nuclear bargain with Iran poses a great challenge for the GCC. According to Abdullah Baabood, each of the six GCC countries has a great stake in the Iranian nuclear deal and has many concerns regarding regional security, the economy, and the environment.
However, negotiations have been taking place secretly between Iran and the US, much to the dismay of the GCC. This is particularly insulting as the US is an important ally to the region, and a deal with Iran would be a major foreign policy issue with implications far beyond simply arms control. There is fear that Iran and the US will strike a grand bargain, resulting in the US leaving the region and Iran coming to dominate it.
The GCC fears this deal because it does not know how to interpret Iran’s status and whether or not it will strictly abide by the rules of the nuclear agreement. There is a great deal of unease about Iran spreading its wings throughout the Gulf and expanding its influence without restriction.
David Ottaway further analyzed the tumultuous relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia over the past several decades. The two countries have a history of intense rivalry for regional dominance that is currently at its peak. However, there have been attempts recently to initiate dialogue between the foreign ministers. The main issue in these upcoming conversations will be determining the true meaning of détente for both the Iranians and the Saudis and exactly how to handle the challenge of energy and oil, as well as sectarian divides.
With the current situation in Iraq, Marina Ottaway highlighted the need to consider how the instability will affect a nuclear deal with Iran. The current sectarian division in Iraq could pose a threat to Iran, which has continued to back Prime Minister Maliki and ultimately has more influence than the US, due to its location. However, volatility is highly unfavorable for Iran and is not ideal for contracting a regional settlement in regards to its nuclear program.
Bijan Khajehpour then discussed the economic implications within the region, assuming there will be a comprehensive nuclear bargain with Iran. There are four areas of either convergence or divergence between Iran and its neighbors. This includes:
- The energy sector
- Regional trade and cross-border investment activity
- Competition for economic and technological dominance
- International investment
The energy sector is a fundamental concern because of the growing demand for oil and gas reserves within the region. While the Persian Gulf holds nearly half of the world’s oil reserves, most states lack natural gas resources, with the exception of Iran and Qatar. Other countries will need to import gas in the near future. “Keeping pressure on Iran’s natural gas sector is to the detriment of the whole region,” Khajehpour concluded, highlighting why energy efficiency will be a point of contention with the progress of an Iranian nuclear bargain.
There is still fierce ideological and strategic competition between Iran and the surrounding region over a possible nuclear deal. It has never been clearer to Iran’s neighbors that they must get involved in this bargain to have their vital interests addressed.
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Shi’astan 1, Kurdistan 1, Sunnistan 0
Here is the concluding paragraph of my piece published by the Middle East Institute Friday:
Thus the current insurgency may look as if it has Maliki cornered, but the long-term strategic balance is still with the Shi’a for geographical, demographic, and resource reasons. Sunnistan is neither a viable state nor a unified one. When the money ISIS seized in Mosul starts to run out, the thieves will quarrel with their comrades in arms. Sunnistan will not want to stay in an unhappy marriage, but it won’t be able to leave, either. Whether Maliki stays or goes, the Sunni insurgency is doomed.
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Schisms in Shi’ism
With sectarian violence flaring in the Middle East, it is tempting to view the Islamic world in terms of the Sunni-Shia schism. However, there are conflicts within the Shia community itself, and on Thursday, the American Enterprise Institute hosted a multipanel event to discuss them. The first two panels focused on the struggle for legitimacy between the two competing theological centers in Iraq and Iran, and the third panel offered policy recommendations going forward. Michael Rubin moderated.
Iraqi Shi’ites are not a monolithic community, said Abbas Khadim, noting that there are two competing schools, or hawza, within Shi’ite Islam: one in Najaf, and one in Qom. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani heads the hawza in Najaf, which acts as counterweight to the Iranian hawza in Qom. According to Khadim, Sistani told him personally that he wanted to curb Iranian influence in Iraq, adding that only political parties in Iraq are interested in patronizing Iran.
Najaf was the center of Shi’ite scholarship until the early twentieth century, declining with the establishment of modern Iraq in 1921. The rise of Qom coincided with the Iranian revolution, and for thirty years it commanded more influence that its rival. According to Toby Mathhiesen, however, the number of Shia worldwide who follow Khameini has declined to around 10%, while Sistani commands a much larger following.
In practice, the panel agreed, the Iranian republic is not a secure model. While Khomeini was able to exercise power in large part through the strength of charisma, Khamenei’s lackluster personality commands far less allegiance than his predecessor. The weakness of his administration was especially apparent in 2009, when thousands of Iranians ignored his orders to remain off the streets.
Sistani’s quietist brand of Islam, meanwhile, has played a moderating role in Iraq since the US invasion in 2003. Following the bombing of Samara, for instance, his refusal to issue a call to arms to Iraq’s Shia population prevented a widening of the civil war. Even Saddam Hussein recognized Sistani as a counterweight to Iranian influence. During the 1980s, Saddam wanted him expelled, but ultimately decided that without Sistani, Iran would be able to leverage even more control within his country.
The speakers agreed that if Sunni governments allocated money for Shiite theological seminaries in their own countries, their Shia minorities would be less inclined to travel to Qom, thus curbing Iranian influence. In fact, Iranian scholars would leave Iran to study in other countries, as many did after the fall of Saddam Hussein (including Khamenei’s grandson).
The third panel was asked to address the question, “should America have a Shia policy?” According to Robert Rook, the short answer is no. This is because the Shia are not a single, indistinguishable group, any more than the Sunni are. Kenneth Pollack said that the US has a bad habit of neglecting human rights in the Middle East, most recently in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Pakistan, and Lebanon, to name a few. Instead, America should champion the human rights we claim to espouse. By ignoring human rights abuses in Syria, he added, we have allowed the conflict to devolve into a sectarian crisis.
By focusing on the Sunni-Shia divide, we neglect the equally large gap between secular and extremist poles in Islam. The US should be backing moderates in all countries, and we should build viable opposition movements that will be able to contest extremism of all sorts. In 2007, Pollack noted, the US was able to successfully build an apolitical army. Walking away from Iraq and Syria feeds extremism. Maliki’s policies have been far more sectarian since the US left Iraq.
America has tried to ignore the Middle East for the last forty years, an approach that has failed us over and over again. Our long-term approach should be to combine diplomacy with use of force. In fact, Pollack said that the US should offer inducements (weapons systems, money or other) directly to governments in exchange for their cooperation. “We should straight up bribe” them, he suggested.
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Peace picks June 23-27
- Iranian Nuclear Deal and the Impact on its Neighbors Monday, June 23 | 9:30 am – 12:00 pm Woodrow Wilson Center, Fifth Floor; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND Experts Abdullah Baabood, Slah Eddin Elzein, Bijan Khajehpour, David Ottaway, Marina Ottoway, and Afshin Molavi examine the implications that a potential Iranian nuclear deal would have on the region, particularly Persian Gulf states.
- Energy Insecurity and the Luxury of Sovereignty along Russia’s Pipelines Tuesday, June 24 | 10:00 am – 11:00 am Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND Can a state without energy security be considered fully sovereign? What factors go into state responses to external energy challenges, and what lessons can they draw from past crises? Lucia Seybert, Research Scholar and Lecturer at American University, examines varied approaches by Lithuania, Ukraine, the Czech Republic, and Belarus for reconciling energy needs with state sovereignty. Mapping the underlying dynamics to this tension between energy and security is important for our understanding of energy cooperation and conflict in Europe and beyond.
- Ambassador Jalil Abbas Jilani on India-Pakistan Relations Tuesday, June 24 | 11:00 am – 12:30 pm Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; 1779 Massachusetts Ave., Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND As Modi’s government takes shape in New Delhi, questions abound about the future of the India-Pakistan relationship. Despite Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif’s promise to normalize ties with India, relations between the two rivals have changed little in the year since he took office. Will Modi’s election lead to a new start between India and Pakistan, or could it instead mark the beginning of a new phase of deterioration? How will domestic politics in Pakistan influence its India policy? Pakistani Ambassador Jalil Abbas Jilani will discuss the prospects for peace between the two countries.
- Defining a New Strategy for NATO: NATO in an Era of Global Competition Wednesday, June 25 | 8:30 am – 3:30 pm Atlantic Council of the United States, 12th Floor; 1030 15th Street, NW, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND As NATO winds down its long combat operation in Afghanistan, the Alliance is facing the most complex and dynamic global security environment since the end of the Cold War, with significant threats emanating from a newly assertive Russia, a turbulent Middle East, and global competition. This conference will convene leaders and experts, such as Wolfgang Ischinger, Robert Kaplan, Ine Marie Eriksen Soreide, James Goldgeier, Julianne Smith, Kori Schake, to discuss the role of NATO and the broader transatlantic community in an era of emerging security challenges, global power shifts, and new disruptive technologies.
- Environmental Dimensions of Sustainable Recovery: Learning from Post-Conflict and Disaster Response Experience Wednesday, June 25 | 9:00 am – 11:00 am Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND Crises, including complex emergencies, war, and natural disasters, create high-stakes environmental and natural resource management choices for communities, governments, and non-governmental organizations. Anita van Breda, Ken Conca, Alice Thomas, and Annica Walleij will identify better practices among the environment, post-conflict and disaster response, and peace building communities.
- The Corruption Factor in the Endless Destabilization and Violence of African Societies Wednesday, June 25 | 2:00 pm – 4:30 pm Universal Peace Federation, 3600 New York Avenue NE, Washington, D.C. While governments commit large sums to addressing the many problems impeding development, corruption remains a major destabilizing force in African societies. Anti-corruption measures are needed as part of Africa’s development agenda to ensure future growth and prosperity. SPEAKERS Dr. Aaron Adade, Dr. John Wulu, Dr. Ignatius O. Okpabi, and Dr. Augustine Blay.
- Retrospective Illusions? Lessons on Nuclear Security from the French Memory of the Cuban Missile Crisis Wednesday, June 25 | 11:00 am – 12:30 pm Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND In this presentation, Benoît Pelopidas analyzes the contemporary memory of the Cuban missile crisis in France in light of the growing consensus that the absence of use of nuclear weapons during the crisis is due to luck or good fortune. Dr. Pelopidas identifies three types of evidence supporting the case for luck: the lack of or false information given to decision-makers, the limits of safety of the weapons involved, and the limits of presidential control over the weapons during the crisis.
- Ukraine: Observations of a Foreign Service Officer in Kiev Wednesday, June 25 | 11:30 am – 1:30 pm Woman’s National Democratic Club; 1526 New Hampshire Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND Drew Bury, a Foreign Service Officer with the United States Department of State, will speak about his recent experience serving as a First Tour Officer in Kiev, Ukraine. Drew will recount his initial observations from his first year in Kiev as a Management Officer at the embassy, and explain how Former President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to stray from the November 21 Association Agreement signing precipitated the EuroMaidan protest movement, creating opportunities for Junior Officers to take on non-traditional embassy roles.
- Russian Gas, European Energy Security, and US Policy Thursday, June 26 | 9:30 am – 12:00 pm American Enterprise Institute; 1150 17th Street, NW, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND In the wake of Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine, energy politics are back on the front page. Even more manifest is the fact that Russian pricing and supply policies with respect to the country’s exports of natural gas are heavily influenced by foreign policy and other noneconomic considerations. SPEAKERS Danielle Pletka, Leon Aron, Anders Aslund, Benjamin Zycher, Desmond Lachman, and Marcus Noland will discuss the political and policy dimensions of European energy security in the context of Russian gas exports and US policy alternatives.
- Building Sustainable Peace and Security—the Lessons of Northern Ireland, Timor Leste, and the Solomon Islands Thursday, June 26 | 3:00 pm – 5:00 pm Stimson Center; 1111 19th Street NW, 12th Floor, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND As we speak, the US is planning its transition out of Afghanistan, bringing an end to 13 years of major combat operations—but not an end to violent conflict there or in other places where sustainable peace and stability are imperatives. Worldwide, the list of transitional countries sliding back towards widespread violence is growing, not shrinking. Yemen, Libya, Egypt, South Sudan, Nigeria—the template for transition out of violent conflict into stable, sustainable peace, from military-provided stabilization to civilian-led safety and community policing initiatives, remains elusive. However, there are examples and lessons to learn from that can help both planners and operators in current and future transitional operations. SPEAKERS Dr. Anna Powles, Massey University, John Loughran, Program Director of Intercomm, and Tim Mairs, Superintendent of Police Services in Northern Ireland.
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Promote the vote
With Tunisia’s presidential and parliamentary elections approaching in the fall, the Middle East Institute and the International Republican Institute (IRI) held a discussion “Brick by Brick: How Tunisians Are Laying the Foundation for Democracy” regarding the upcoming democratic transition. Yassine Brahim, President of the Afek Tunis Party, Meriem Bourguiba, Executive Committee of the Afek Tunis Party, and Scott Mastic, Regional Director at IRI, came together to discuss the elections and the challenges combatting voter apathy.
Tunisia is currently viewed as a beacon of stability within the Middle East. After successfully adopting a new constitution this year, Tunisians enjoy wide political rights and freedoms that range from freedom of belief to free speech. With elections around the corner, political parties are racing to garner support throughout the country.
However, Tunisians are angered by the economic stagnation and inadequate government response, fostering a sense of distrust and frustration towards political parties. Fifty per cent of Tunisians believe that political parties are not interested in the general population, while 57% think that parties are only interested in power and personal growth. Thus, there is a great need to connect with everyday Tunisians to increase voter turnout and combat negative views of parties.
Political parties must look at the demographics behind the recent levels of voter apathy. Meriem Bourguiba noted that Tunisian youth currently present a great challenge in terms of political support due to the high unemployment rate and instability during Ben Ali’s regime. Approximately 95% of young Tunisians want to cross the Mediterranean in search of better opportunities in Europe. However, Bourguiba emphasized, “we can’t jump ship yet—we need to instill good will and dreams back into the youth.” Tunisia must search within civil society for outlets to truly impact youth and their education in order to get them out to the polls and vote.
It is also important that Tunisian women are empowered and see the significance in exercising their vote. Political parties should take a direct approach by talking with women in their homes and social settings in order to discourage female voter apathy. Women must be shown that they are active participants in government and that their voices will be heard. They are contributing members of this newly developing system. It is imperative that they have opportunities and resources appropriate to their best qualities.
Because of political indifference, great preparation and direct appeals to different facets of the population are necessary. Scott Mastic stressed that parties must convey progressive, new ideas, but also show a collective interest in Tunisia regardless of differing opinions.
The Afek Tunis party is preparing for the upcoming elections this fall, but it continues to struggle with voter apathy across a wide range of constituents. It is a liberal, free-market party that is currently ranked sixth in the polls. According to Afek Tunis President Yassine Brahim, it is a challenging task to address the many political and institutional issues within the country, even if Tunisia has progressed a great deal over the past several years.
Brahim advocated fundamental reforms to resolve the pressing social and economic issues the country suffers from. It is necessary to liberalize the economy without discrimination and make incentives for people to create businesses. Leaders of political parties should encourage innovation and entrepreneurship, while also halting the bureaucratic selectiveness of the current economy. There should be direct communication with voters and great efforts throughout both the presidential and parliamentary elections to increase voter turnout.
Despite the challenges of voter apathy, Tunisia is advancing peacefully and transitioning towards democracy. Power lies in the hands of the people, provided they go to the polls and participate in the rebuilding of their country.
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Great expectations
With General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi sworn in as president last week, many people are questioning what his term will hold for Egypt. On Monday the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted “What to Expect from the al-Sisi Presidency” to discuss the growing array of political and economic challenges that al-Sisi faces. Moushira Khattab, former Public Policy Scholar and former Ambassador of Egypt to South Africa, Marina Ottaway, senior scholar at the Wilson Center, and Emad El-Din Shahin, Public Policy professor at the American University in Cairo, shared their opinions as to how the new Egyptian president will respond to the tumultuous atmosphere.
President al-Sisi stated in his inauguration speech that there were many issues he sought to address in the coming years. In particular, political reconciliation is a pressing issue due to systematic political exclusion and violence.
Moushira Khattab contended that it is vital to national stability for al-Sisi to present himself as a leader of all Egyptians because political reconciliation is the only way the nation can progress. He should use his current popular support and practice inclusiveness in the broadest sense, bridging the current divisions between the state and the Muslim Brotherhood. Even with the trials of Muslim Brotherhood members approaching, al-Sisi should be looking to mend the rift and assist with the mediation led by the EU and Gulf States.
For the economy, President al-Sisi has been vague in his promises. The failing economy is a ticking time bomb for Egypt and al-Sisi has made a point not to detail how he is going to tackle it. Ottaway said that the Egyptian people are impatiently awaiting the president’s and the cabinet’s response to the ongoing energy crisis. Last week, al-Sisi emphasized the need to reduce oil consumption by using different means of transportation; however, he did not address the question of lowering energy subsidies. It is vital for al-Sisi to balance the pressing needs of the masses with the scarce energy resources and current state of the economy in a transparent manner.
Al-Sisi should also incentivize the return of foreign direct investment across all sectors of the Egyptian economy. This is pivotal to revamp existing businesses and boost production to provide jobs for unemployed youth. With the return of foreign direct investment, Ottaway predicts an economic restoration process that will in turn assist in bringing tourism back to Egypt. This ultimately will push al-Sisi to seek political as well as economic inclusiveness.
According to Emad El-Din Shahin, the president will need to appeal directly to various factions of the population in order to gain popular support for his political and economic agenda. In his first week, he visited a female victim of sexual violence in Tahrir Square. This was the first time that an Egyptian president made a direct effort to apologize and take a strong stance on harassment. President al-Sisi ultimately must make it clear that all human rights—whether they be social, economic, political, or cultural—are a top priority without any discrimination.
Egyptian youth pose a great challenge for the president. His youth support is fading, especially as they have seen their own power in standing up against past leaders. They are desperate for jobs, opportunities, and a better quality of life. It is questionable whether they will be able to exercise patience in awaiting his plans as president.
The situation in Egypt is still tense. People are unsure of what the future holds for the country. The Egyptian masses have high expectations for the president. They will not stand for a leader who does not swiftly address the pressing needs of the country.
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