Merging battlefields

The past several weeks have revolved around the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) insurgency in Iraq and the likelihood of a future divided state. With these recent advances, many have overlooked what this ultimately will mean for President Assad and the ongoing civil war in Syria. On Tuesday, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS-US) hosted “Syria After Geneva, the Elections, and ISIS: Partition, Fragmentation, and Escalation.” Author and IISS-US Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, Emile Hokayem, led the discussion and examined Assad’s presidency and the effective merger of the Syrian and Iraqi battlefields.

President Assad’s regime is in a better situation right now than it has been at any point since 2012. The pressure on Damascus is at its lowest in years, which has given Assad the opportunity to rebuild the pretense that Syria will again be a functioning state. The presidential election in June has provided the president with the chance to put pressure on urbanites and “fence-sitters” in order to support the pretense of “rebuilding Syria.”

Hokayem highlighted that Assad’s main strategy in reconstruction lies in the conquest of land rather than of people. It has become futile for him to spend precious time and resources in an attempt to win back the loyalty of people he has left to suffer for the past several years. His priority is to push recalcitrant citizens out of important territory instead of attempting to gain control over them. This approach shifts the burden onto the international community and human rights organizations to address a massive displacement crisis.

“This humanitarian problem is not an unfortunate outcome of the ongoing civil war,” Hokayem said. It is a deliberate strategy to debilitate the people and continue the conquest of land. This is a strategy, not an accident, and need to be addressed as such.

Meanwhile, ISIS has made momentous gains in neighboring Iraq. It has now gained control of nearly half of Iraq and  has declared a state. ISIS has been successful at mobilizing local resources and support in an area that transcends national borders. We are now seeing the effective merger of western Iraq and eastern Syria .

It is not clear what effect the ISIS offensive will have on President Assad. Some argue that President Assad will benefit. The ISIS success validates the narrative that Assad has attempted to craft since 2011. Assad will be satisfied with the heated debate in the West as to how to address the recent ISIS gains.

Others believe that the ISIS offensive doesn’t help Assad at all. He has failed to get Westerners to share his narrative. Secretary of State Kerry has remarked that Assad cannot be the answer to fighting ISIS because he is a magnet for terrorism.

All eyes are currently on Iraq and whether or not the country will emerge from the ISIS insurgency in one piece. The Iraqi conflict cannot be viewed as an independent issue and must be observed alongside Syria’s instability and humanitarian crisis.

The Syrian conflict can no longer be contained. The Iraqi battlefield has now merged with the Syrian battlefield and ISIS must now be addressed in this context.