Day: July 24, 2014
The Gaza enigma
The current Gaza war is an enigma. Israel’s “mowing the grass” strategy, if it can be called by that offensive label, condemns it to repeated military efforts intended to provide respites from attacks without the prospect of an acceptable long-term political outcome. Hamas’ use of rockets and infiltration that kill few people but terrorize many seems calculated to shore up its reputation for “resistance” but likewise to lack a political end state.
Yet when some Israelis and Palestinians describe what it is they would like to see happen, there is a hint of similarity. Hamas’ proposal for a ten-year truce includes
…lifting the Israeli siege in Gaza through the opening of its borders with Israel to commerce and people, the establishment of an international seaport and airport under U.N. supervision, the expansion of the permitted fishing zone in the Gaza sea to 10 kilometers, and the revitalization of Gaza industrial zone.
Or, as a statement from Gaza “academics, public figures and activists” put it: “we call for a ceasefire only when negotiated conditions result in the following:
- Freedom of movement of Palestinians in and out of the Gaza Strip.
- Unlimited import and export of supplies and goods, including by land, sea and air.
- Unrestricted use of the Gaza seaport.
- Monitoring and enforcement of these agreements by a body appointed by the United Nations, with appropriate security measures.”
The devil, as always, is in the details, which I suppose are covered in that stunningly undramatic phrase “with appropriate security measures.”
Once the current conflict is over, Israel is not going to want Hamas to be free to import more rockets. But even a retired Israeli Brigadier General writes:
Weakening Hamas may ultimately produce a cease-fire arrangement that prevents the remilitarization of Gaza — with Egypt effectively sealing its border with the territory — and deters Hamas from using violence. Such an outcome may allow for the opening of Gaza’s crossings to extensive humanitarian assistance and economic development channeled through the Palestinian Authority, to the benefit of the people of Gaza rather than Hamas.
There is of course a potentially big gap between “unlimited” and “unrestricted” in the Palestinian version and “extensive” in the Israeli version, but both statements seem to recognize that the Gaza status quo ante was not sustainable. I find it hard to believe Hamas will ever agree to anything resembling demilitarization, but depriving it of longer-range rockets may not be beyond possibility. Deputy National Security Adviser Blinken pushed the demilitarization line yesterday on NPR.
Anyone who has been to Gaza understands that its relationship with its nearest neighbors is a major determinant of the welfare of its people and their economy. Cut off from Israel and Egypt, it is an open air prison. Unless Egypt is prepared to take it back, an option some Israelis would like to pursue but few Egyptians would countenance, Gaza needs commerce with Egypt and Israel even to begin to thrive.
This isn’t as visionary as it may sound to some.I am reminded of a colleague who keeps Kosher and attended a meeting in Gaza in the period between the two intifadas. Could the hotel supply Kosher food? Of course, it replied, through contacts in Israel.
There are Palestinians and Israelis who don’t want their common interest in commerce to prevail over mutual loathing and military confrontation. The current destruction in Gaza will make the road back to a more normal relationship long and hard. Palestinians will seek justice. Israelis will want security. It will sound as if they agree on nothing.
But still it is important to keep in mind that wars end, people return to more normal discourse, relationships and commerce. Jews and Arabs have known periods of strife, or worse than that, and periods of coexistence, or even more than that. The enigma is not forever.
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Pakistan’s better tomorrow
Pakistan experienced its first democratic transfer of power with the election of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in May 2013. This historic election was celebrated throughout the population and demonstrated the widespread desire to confront the country’s greatest obstacles. Tariq Fatemi, Special Assistant to Prime Minister Sharif, spoke at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Monday about Pakistan’s vision for regional prosperity and economic development. He contended that Pakistan is on the rise and is making gradual yet sustainable progress under the new government.
Prime Minister Sharif has made his priorities clear in revitalizing the country and providing for a better future for Pakistan. Fatemi stated that one of Sharif’s main concerns lies in the growing energy crisis that has hindered the country for many years. The shortages in gas and electricity have resulted in weakened economic activity in key national industries. The prime minister has thus made it a fundamental part of the national agenda to address this issue because there can be no meaningful improvement in the economy or the lives of the people without a stable energy supply.
The new government has also placed emphasis on building relationships with neighboring countries and global powers. Prime Minister Sharif recently met with Indian Prime Minister Modi to discuss a future amicable relationship between the two countries. This was a historic meeting between the two democratically elected prime ministers as a means to move past the strained relations between India and Pakistan. This relationship could ultimately not only be beneficial for India and Pakistan, but also for the prosperity and growth of the entire region.
Prime Minister Sharif is also invested in Pakistani and Chinese relations. China has played a pivotal role in assisting with economic improvement in Pakistan, as well as looking for solutions to the growing energy problem. The EU has also demonstrated interest in Pakistan’s recent progress, thus opening it up to increased foreign direct investment from European countries. Fatemi also emphasized the importance of ties with the US, despite strained relations in the past decade. Nevertheless, the new Pakistani government has proven its dedication to developing substantial and committed relations on a global scale.
Another objective of the new government is eliminating the extremist threat within Pakistani borders. Thus far, they have been successful in capturing militants and destroying extremist safe havens and communication systems. Prime Minister Sharif also has been working with Afghanistan on border control in order to eliminate the spread of militancy and extremism. He has made it clear that Pakistan is committed to this operation as long as needed.
While Pakistan is currently making progress, the government still must combat the weak institutions and plethora of economic problems from the past. Fatemi highlighted the importance of restoring the education system. The inherent linkage between education, awareness, and the economy must be recognized in order for Pakistan to move forward as a prosperous nation.
He also argued that Pakistan could benefit from a better utilization of youth. They need not be a drain on the national economy, but rather contributing members of society. The government should establish technical schools across the country in order to foster necessary employment skills. Youth could then work towards reviving Pakistan’s textile industry, with the advantage of a large supply of cotton. Prime Minister Sharif is optimistic regarding potential youth involvement and bottom-up approach to economic growth.
“Pakistan is on the road to a better tomorrow,” concluded Fatemi. It is likely to be a long and challenging journey, but Pakistanis are eager to move forward. We will see in due time as to whether the conviction of this new leadership can usher the country into a new era of political and economic improvement.
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